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Register a new userInformation Payoffs: An Interim Perspective
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We study the payoffs that can arise under some information structure from an interim perspective. There is a set of types distributed according to some prior distribution and a payoff function that assigns a value to each pair of a type and a belief over the types. Any information structure induces an interim payoff profile which describes, for each type, the expected payoff under the information structure conditional on the type. We characterize the set of all interim payoff profiles consistent with some information structure. We illustrate our results through applications.
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We examine the long-term behavior of a Bayesian agent who has a misspecified belief about the time lag between actions and feedback, and learns about the payoff consequences of his actions over time. Misspecified beliefs about time lags result in attribution errors, which have no long-term effect when the agents action converges, but can lead to arbitrarily large long-term inefficiencies when his action cycles. Our proof uses concentration inequalities to bound the frequency of action switches, which are useful to study learning problems with history dependence. We apply our methods to study a policy choice game between a policy-maker who has a correctly specified belief about the time lag and the public who has a misspecified belief.
We study a model in which before a conflict between two parties escalates into a war (in the form of an all-pay auction), a party can offer a take-it-or-leave-it bribe to the other one for a peaceful settlement. We distinguish between various degrees of peace prospects--implementability, weak security and strong security. We first characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions for peace implementability and weak security. We then show that weak security implies strong security. We also consider a requesting-a-bribe game and characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a robust peaceful equilibrium. We find that all such robust peaceful equilibria share the same request.
We study how violations of structural assumptions like expected utility and exponential discounting can be connected to reference dependent preferences with set-dependent reference points, even if behavior conforms with these assumptions when the reference is fixed. An axiomatic framework jointly and systematically relaxes general rationality (WARP) and structural assumptions to capture reference dependence across domains. It gives rise to a linear order that determines references points, which in turn determines the preference parameters for a choice problem. This allows us to study risk, time, and social preferences collectively, where seemingly independent anomalies are interconnected through the lens of reference-dependent choice.
Cities are centers for the integration of capital and incubators of invention, and attracting venture capital (VC) is of great importance for cities to advance in innovative technology and business models towards a sustainable and prosperous future. Yet we still lack a quantitative understanding of the relationship between urban characteristics and VC activities. In this paper, we find a clear nonlinear scaling relationship between VC activities and the urban population of Chinese cities. In such nonlinear systems, the widely applied linear per capita indicators would be either biased to larger cities or smaller cities depends on whether it is superlinear or sublinear, while the residual of cities relative to the prediction of scaling law is a more objective and scale-invariant metric. %(i.e., independent of the city size). Such a metric can distinguish the effects of local dynamics and scaled growth induced by the change of population size. The spatiotemporal evolution of such metrics on VC activities reveals three distinct groups of cities, two of which stand out with increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. And the taxonomy results together with spatial analysis also signify different development modes between large urban agglomeration regions. Besides, we notice the evolution of scaling exponents on VC activities are of much larger fluctuations than on socioeconomic output of cities, and a conceptual model that focuses on the growth dynamics of different sized cities can well explain it, which we assume would be general to other scenarios.
The concept of clearing or netting, as defined in the glossaries of European Central Bank, has a great impact on the economy of a country influencing the exchanges and the interactions between companies. On short, netting refers to an alternative to the usual way in which the companies make the payments to each other: it is an agreement in which each party sets off amounts it owes against amounts owed to it. Based on the amounts two or more parties owe between them, the payment is substituted by a direct settlement. In this paper we introduce a set of graph algorithms which provide optimal netting solutions for the scale of a country economy. The set of algorithms computes results in an efficient time and is tested on invoice data provided by the Romanian Ministry of Economy. Our results show that classical graph algorithms are still capable of solving very important modern problems.
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