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Added by
Jonathan J. Fortney
Publication date
2021
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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This brief review focuses on methods and applications of modeling exoplanetary atmospheres. We discuss various kinds of state of the art self-consistent and retrieval models in 1D and multi-D with a focus on open questions and short- and long-term goals in the field. Expertise previously developed in modeling cool stellar atmospheres and in modeling solar system planetary atmospheres has proven valuable to the field, and will continue to do so. We described upcoming opportunities for making progress in our understanding of atmospheres, and close with what we see as the fields challenges.
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Over the past decade, the study of extrasolar planets has evolved rapidly from plain detection and identification to comprehensive categorization and characterization of exoplanet systems and their atmospheres. Atmospheric retrieval, the inverse modeling technique used to determine an exoplanetary atmospheres temperature structure and composition from an observed spectrum, is both time-consuming and compute-intensive, requiring complex algorithms that compare thousands to millions of atmospheric models to the observational data to find the most probable values and associated uncertainties for each model parameter. For rocky, terrestrial planets, the retrieved atmospheric composition can give insight into the surface fluxes of gaseous species necessary to maintain the stability of that atmosphere, which may in turn provide insight into the geological and/or biological processes active on the planet. These atmospheres contain many molecules, some of them biosignatures, spectral fingerprints indicative of biological activity, which will become observable with the next generation of telescopes. Runtimes of traditional retrieval models scale with the number of model parameters, so as more molecular species are considered, runtimes can become prohibitively long. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) and computer vision offer new ways to reduce the time to perform a retrieval by orders of magnitude, given a sufficient data set to train with. Here we present an ML-based retrieval framework called Intelligent exoplaNet Atmospheric RetrievAl (INARA) that consists of a Bayesian deep learning model for retrieval and a data set of 3,000,000 synthetic rocky exoplanetary spectra generated using the NASA Planetary Spectrum Generator. Our work represents the first ML retrieval model for rocky, terrestrial exoplanets and the first synthetic data set of terrestrial spectra generated at this scale.
We present a retrieval method based on Bayesian analysis to infer the atmospheric compositions and surface or cloud-top pressures from transmission spectra of exoplanets with general compositions. In this study, we identify what can unambiguously be determined about the atmospheres of exoplanets from their transmission spectra by applying the retrieval method to synthetic observations of the super-Earth GJ 1214b. Our approach to infer constraints on atmospheric parameters is to compute their joint and marginal posterior probability distributions using the MCMC technique in a parallel tempering scheme. A new atmospheric parameterization is introduced that is applicable to general atmospheres in which the main constituent is not known a priori and clouds may be present. Our main finding is that a unique constraint of the mixing ratios of the absorbers and up to two spectrally inactive gases (such as N2 and primordial H2+He) is possible if the observations are sufficient to quantify both (1) the broadband transit depths in at least one absorption feature for each absorber and (2) the slope and strength of the molecular Rayleigh scattering signature. The surface or cloud-top pressure can be quantified if a surface or cloud deck is present. The mean molecular mass can be constrained from the Rayleigh slope or the shapes of absorption features, thus enabling to distinguish between cloudy hydrogen-rich atmospheres and high mean molecular mass atmospheres. We conclude, however, that without the signature of Rayleigh scattering--even with robustly detected infrared absorption features--there is no reliable way to tell if the absorber is the main constituent of the atmosphere or just a minor species with a mixing ratio of <0.1%. The retrieval method leads us to a conceptual picture of which details in transmission spectra are essential for unique characterizations of well-mixed atmospheres.
Aims: ARCiS, a novel code for the analysis of exoplanet transmission and emission spectra is presented. The aim of the modelling framework is to provide a tool able to link observations to physical models of exoplanet atmospheres. Methods: The modelling philosophy chosen in this paper is to use physical and chemical models to constrain certain parameters while keeping free the parts where our physical understanding is still more limited. This approach, in between full physical modelling and full parameterisation, allows us to use the processes we understand well and parameterise those less understood. A Bayesian retrieval framework is implemented and applied to the transit spectra of a set of 10 hot Jupiters. The code contains chemistry and cloud formation and has the option for self consistent temperature structure computations. Results: The code presented is fast and flexible enough to be used for retrieval and for target list simulations for e.g. JWST or the ESA Ariel missions. We present results for the retrieval of elemental abundance ratios using the physical retrieval framework and compare this to results obtained using a parameterised retrieval setup. Conclusions: We conclude that for most of the targets considered the current dataset is not constraining enough to reliably pin down the elemental abundance ratios. We find no significant correlations between different physical parameters. We confirm that planets in our sample with a strong slope in the optical transmission spectrum are the planets where we find cloud formation to be most active. Finally, we conclude that with ARCiS we have a computationally efficient tool to analyse exoplanet observations in the context of physical and chemical models.
Machine learning is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using machine learning algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally-expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new machine learning model, texttt{plan-net}, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks that yields more accurate inferences than the random forest for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use Bayesian neural networks for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for Bayesian neural networks that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing machine learning models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply texttt{plan-net} to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.
An increasing number of potentially habitable terrestrial planets and planet candidates are found by ongoing planet search programs. The search for atmospheric signatures to establish planetary habitability and the presence of life might be possible in the future. We want to quantify the accuracy of retrieved atmospheric parameters which might be obtained from infrared emission spectroscopy. We use synthetic observations of hypothetical habitable planets, constructed with a parametrized atmosphere model, a high-resolution radiative transfer model and a simplified noise model. Classic statistical tools such as chi2 statistics and least-square fits were used to analyze the simulated observations. When adopting the design of currently planned or proposed exoplanet characterization missions, we find that emission spectroscopy could provide weak limits on surface conditions of terrestrial planets, hence their potential habitability. However, these mission designs are unlikely to allow to characterize the composition of the atmosphere of a habitable planet, even though CO2 is detected. Upon increasing the signal-to-noise ratios by about a factor of 2-5 (depending on spectral resolution) compared to current mission designs, the CO2 content could be characterized to within two orders of magnitude. The detection of the O3 biosignature remains marginal. The atmospheric temperature structure could not be constrained. Therefore, a full atmospheric characterization seems to be beyond the capabilities of such missions when using only emission spectroscopy during secondary eclipse or target visits. Other methods such as transmission spectroscopy or orbital photometry are probably needed in order to give additional constraints and break degeneracies. (abridged)
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