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Register a new userBilinear Input Normalization for Neural Networks in Financial Forecasting
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Data normalization is one of the most important preprocessing steps when building a machine learning model, especially when the model of interest is a deep neural network. This is because deep neural network optimized with stochastic gradient descent is sensitive to the input variable range and prone to numerical issues. Different than other types of signals, financial time-series often exhibit unique characteristics such as high volatility, non-stationarity and multi-modality that make them challenging to work with, often requiring expert domain knowledge for devising a suitable processing pipeline. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven normalization method for deep neural networks that handle high-frequency financial time-series. The proposed normalization scheme, which takes into account the bimodal characteristic of financial multivariate time-series, requires no expert knowledge to preprocess a financial time-series since this step is formulated as part of the end-to-end optimization process. Our experiments, conducted with state-of-the-arts neural networks and high-frequency data from two large-scale limit order books coming from the Nordic and US markets, show significant improvements over other normalization techniques in forecasting future stock price dynamics.
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Deep Learning (DL) models can be used to tackle time series analysis tasks with great success. However, the performance of DL models can degenerate rapidly if the data are not appropriately normalized. This issue is even more apparent when DL is used for financial time series forecasting tasks, where the non-stationary and multimodal nature of the data pose significant challenges and severely affect the performance of DL models. In this work, a simple, yet effective, neural layer, that is capable of adaptively normalizing the input time series, while taking into account the distribution of the data, is proposed. The proposed layer is trained in an end-to-end fashion using back-propagation and leads to significant performance improvements compared to other evaluated normalization schemes. The proposed method differs from traditional normalization methods since it learns how to perform normalization for a given task instead of using a fixed normalization scheme. At the same time, it can be directly applied to any new time series without requiring re-training. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using a large-scale limit order book dataset, as well as a load forecasting dataset.
Financial time-series analysis and forecasting have been extensively studied over the past decades, yet still remain as a very challenging research topic. Since the financial market is inherently noisy and stochastic, a majority of financial time-series of interests are non-stationary, and often obtained from different modalities. This property presents great challenges and can significantly affect the performance of the subsequent analysis/forecasting steps. Recently, the Temporal Attention augmented Bilinear Layer (TABL) has shown great performances in tackling financial forecasting problems. In this paper, by taking into account the nature of bilinear projections in TABL networks, we propose Bilinear Normalization (BiN), a simple, yet efficient normalization layer to be incorporated into TABL networks to tackle potential problems posed by non-stationarity and multimodalities in the input series. Our experiments using a large scale Limit Order Book (LOB) consisting of more than 4 million order events show that BiN-TABL outperforms TABL networks using other state-of-the-arts normalization schemes by a large margin.
Data augmentation methods in combination with deep neural networks have been used extensively in computer vision on classification tasks, achieving great success; however, their use in time series classification is still at an early stage. This is even more so in the field of financial prediction, where data tends to be small, noisy and non-stationary. In this paper we evaluate several augmentation methods applied to stocks datasets using two state-of-the-art deep learning models. The results show that several augmentation methods significantly improve financial performance when used in combination with a trading strategy. For a relatively small dataset ($approx30K$ samples), augmentation methods achieve up to $400%$ improvement in risk adjusted return performance; for a larger stock dataset ($approx300K$ samples), results show up to $40%$ improvement.
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) represent the de facto standard machine learning tool for sequence modelling, owing to their expressive power and memory. However, when dealing with large dimensional data, the corresponding exponential increase in the number of parameters imposes a computational bottleneck. The necessity to equip RNNs with the ability to deal with the curse of dimensionality, such as through the parameter compression ability inherent to tensors, has led to the development of the Tensor-Train RNN (TT-RNN). Despite achieving promising results in many applications, the full potential of the TT-RNN is yet to be explored in the context of interpretable financial modelling, a notoriously challenging task characterized by multi-modal data with low signal-to-noise ratio. To address this issue, we investigate the potential of TT-RNN in the task of financial forecasting of currencies. We show, through the analysis of TT-factors, that the physical meaning underlying tensor decomposition, enables the TT-RNN model to aid the interpretability of results, thus mitigating the notorious black-box issue associated with neural networks. Furthermore, simulation results highlight the regularization power of TT decomposition, demonstrating the superior performance of TT-RNN over its uncompressed RNN counterpart and other tensor forecasting methods.
Based on the daily data of American and Chinese stock markets, the dynamic behavior of a financial network with static and dynamic thresholds is investigated. Compared with the static threshold, the dynamic threshold suppresses the large fluctuation induced by the cross-correlation of individual stock prices, and leads to a stable topological structure in the dynamic evolution. Long-range time-correlations are revealed for the average clustering coefficient, average degree and cross-correlation of degrees. The dynamic network shows a two-peak behavior in the degree distribution.
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