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Detecting continuous nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs) generated by individual close binaries of supermassive black holes (CB-SMBHs) is one of the primary objectives of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). The detection sensitivity is slated to increase significantly as the number of well-timed millisecond pulsars will increase by more than an order of magnitude with the advent of next-generation radio telescopes. Currently, the Bayesian analysis pipeline using parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo has been applied in multiple studies for CB-SMBH searches, but it may be challenged by the high dimensionality of the parameter space for future large-scale PTAs. One solution is to reduce the dimensionality by maximizing or marginalizing over uninformative parameters semi-analytically, but it is not clear whether this approach can be extended to more complex signal models without making overly simplified assumptions. Recently, the method of diffusive nested (DNest) sampling shown the capability of coping with high dimensionality and multimodality effectively in Bayesian analysis. In this paper, we apply DNest to search for continuous GWs in simulated pulsar timing residuals and find that it performs well in terms of accuracy, robustness, and efficiency for a PTA including $mathcal{O}(10^2)$ pulsars. DNest also allows a simultaneous search of multiple sources elegantly, which demonstrates its scalability and general applicability. Our results show that it is convenient and also high beneficial to include DNest in current toolboxes of PTA analysis.
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We have begun an exciting era for gravitational wave detection, as several world-leading experiments are breaching the threshold of anticipated signal strengths. Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are pan-Galactic gravitational wave detectors that are already cutting into the expected strength of gravitational waves from cosmic strings and binary supermassive black holes in the nHz-$mu$Hz gravitational wave band. These limits are leading to constraints on the evolutionary state of the Universe. Here, we provide a broad review of this field, from how pulsars are used as tools for detection, to astrophysical sources of uncertainty in the signals PTAs aim to see, to the primary current challenge areas for PTA work. This review aims to provide an up-to-date reference point for new parties interested in the field of gravitational wave detection via pulsar timing.
In this paper we present the results of the first low frequency all-sky search of continuous gravitational wave signals conducted on Virgo VSR2 and VSR4 data. The search covered the full sky, a frequency range between 20 Hz and 128 Hz with a range of spin-down between $-1.0 times 10^{-10}$ Hz/s and $+1.5 times 10^{-11}$ Hz/s, and was based on a hierarchical approach. The starting point was a set of short Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT), of length 8192 seconds, built from the calibrated strain data. Aggressive data cleaning, both in the time and frequency domains, has been done in order to remove, as much as possible, the effect of disturbances of instrumental origin. On each dataset a number of candidates has been selected, using the FrequencyHough transform in an incoherent step. Only coincident candidates among VSR2 and VSR4 have been examined in order to strongly reduce the false alarm probability, and the most significant candidates have been selected. Selected candidates have been subject to a follow-up by constructing a new set of longer FFTs followed by a further incoherent analysis, still based on the FrequencyHough transform. No evidence for continuous gravitational wave signals was found, therefore we have set a population-based joint VSR2-VSR4 90$%$ confidence level upper limit on the dimensionless gravitational wave strain in the frequency range between 20 Hz and 128 Hz. This is the first all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves conducted, on data of ground-based interferometric detectors, at frequencies below 50 Hz. We set upper limits in the range between about $10^{-24}$ and $2times 10^{-23}$ at most frequencies. Our upper limits on signal strain show an improvement of up to a factor of $sim$2 with respect to the results of previous all-sky searches at frequencies below $80~mathrm{Hz}$.
The NANOGrav Collaboration reported strong Bayesian evidence for a common-spectrum stochastic process in its 12.5-yr pulsar timing array dataset, with median characteristic strain amplitude at periods of a year of $A_{rm yr} = 1.92^{+0.75}_{-0.55} times 10^{-15}$. However, evidence for the quadrupolar Hellings & Downs interpulsar correlations, which are characteristic of gravitational wave signals, was not yet significant. We emulate and extend the NANOGrav dataset, injecting a wide range of stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) signals that encompass a variety of amplitudes and spectral shapes, and quantify three key milestones: (I) Given the amplitude measured in the 12.5 yr analysis and assuming this signal is a GWB, we expect to accumulate robust evidence of an interpulsar-correlated GWB signal with 15--17 yrs of data, i.e., an additional 2--5 yrs from the 12.5 yr dataset; (II) At the initial detection, we expect a fractional uncertainty of $40%$ on the power-law strain spectrum slope, which is sufficient to distinguish a GWB of supermassive black-hole binary origin from some models predicting more exotic origins;(III) Similarly, the measured GWB amplitude will have an uncertainty of $44%$ upon initial detection, allowing us to arbitrate between some population models of supermassive black-hole binaries. In addition, power-law models are distinguishable from those having low-frequency spectral turnovers once 20~yrs of data are reached. Even though our study is based on the NANOGrav data, we also derive relations that allow for a generalization to other pulsar-timing array datasets. Most notably, by combining the data of individual arrays into the International Pulsar Timing Array, all of these milestones can be reached significantly earlier.
Within the next several years, pulsar-timing array programs will likely usher in the next era of gravitational-wave astronomy through the detection of a stochastic background of nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves, originating from a cosmological population of inspiraling supermassive binary black holes. While the source positions will likely be isotropic to a good approximation, the gravitational-wave angular power distribution will be anisotropic, with the most massive and/or nearby binaries producing signals that may resound above the background. We study such a realistic angular power distribution, developing fast and accurate sky-mapping strategies to localize pixels and extended regions of excess power while simultaneously modeling the background signal from the less massive and more distant ensemble. We find that power anisotropy will be challenging to discriminate from isotropy for realistic gravitational-wave skies, requiring SNR $>10$ in order to favor anisotropy with $10:1$ posterior odds in our case study. Amongst our techniques, modeling the population signal with multiple point sources in addition to an isotropic background provides the most physically-motivated and easily interpreted maps, while spherical-harmonic modeling of the square-root power distribution, $P(hatOmega)^{1/2}$, performs best in discriminating from overall isotropy. Our techniques are modular and easily incorporated into existing pulsar-timing array analysis pipelines.
A nanohertz-frequency stochastic gravitational-wave background can potentially be detected through the precise timing of an array of millisecond pulsars. This background produces low-frequency noise in the pulse arrival times that would have a characteristic spectrum common to all pulsars and a well-defined spatial correlation. Recently the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves collaboration (NANOGrav) found evidence for the common-spectrum component in their 12.5-year data set. Here we report on a search for the background using the second data release of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. If we are forced to choose between the two NANOGrav models $unicode{x2014}$ one with a common-spectrum process and one without $unicode{x2014}$ we find strong support for the common-spectrum process. However, in this paper, we consider the possibility that the analysis suffers from model misspecification. In particular, we present simulated data sets that contain noise with distinctive spectra but show strong evidence for a common-spectrum process under the standard assumptions. The Parkes data show no significant evidence for, or against, the spatially correlated Hellings-Downs signature of the gravitational-wave background. Assuming we did observe the process underlying the spatially uncorrelated component of the background, we infer its amplitude to be $A = 2.2^{+0.4}_{-0.3} times 10^{-15}$ in units of gravitational-wave strain at a frequency of $1, text{yr}^{-1}$. Extensions and combinations of existing and new data sets will improve the prospects of identifying spatial correlations that are necessary to claim a detection of the gravitational-wave background.
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