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Register a new userThe Uncertain Future of Massive Binaries Obscures the Origin of LIGO/Virgo Sources
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Krzysztof Belczynski
Publication date
2021
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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The LIGO/Virgo gravitational--wave observatories have detected 50 BH-BH coalescences. This sample is large enough to have allowed several recent studies to draw conclusions about the branching ratios between isolated binaries versus dense stellar clusters as the origin of double BHs. It has also led to the exciting suggestion that the population is highly likely to contain primordial black holes. Here we demonstrate that such conclusions cannot yet be robust, because of the large current uncertainties in several key aspects of binary stellar evolution. These include the development and survival of a common envelope, the mass and angular momentum loss during binary interactions, mixing in stellar interiors, pair-instability mass loss and supernova outbursts. Using standard tools such as the population synthesis codes StarTrack and COMPAS and the detailed stellar evolution code MESA, we examine as a case study the possible future evolution of Melnick 34, the most massive known binary star system. We show that, despite its well-known orbital architecture, various assumptions regarding stellar and binary physics predict a wide variety of outcomes: from a close BH-BH binary (which would lead to a potentially detectable coalescence), through a wide BH-BH binary (which might be seen in microlensing observations), or a Thorne-Zytkow object, to a complete disruption of both objects by pair-instability supernovae. Thus since the future of massive binaries is inherently uncertain, sound predictions about the properties of BH-BH systems are highly challenging at this time. Consequently, drawing conclusions about the formation channels for the LIGO/Virgo BH-BH merger population is premature.
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Intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) span the approximate mass range $100$--$10^5,M_odot$, between black holes (BHs) formed by stellar collapse and the supermassive BHs at the centers of galaxies. Mergers of IMBH binaries are the most energetic gravitational-wave sources accessible by the terrestrial detector network. Searches of the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo did not yield any significant IMBH binary signals. In the third observing run (O3), the increased network sensitivity enabled the detection of GW190521, a signal consistent with a binary merger of mass $sim 150,M_odot,$ providing direct evidence of IMBH formation. Here we report on a dedicated search of O3 data for further IMBH binary mergers, combining both modelled (matched filter) and model independent search methods. We find some marginal candidates, but none are sufficiently significant to indicate detection of further IMBH mergers. We quantify the sensitivity of the individual search methods and of the combined search using a suite of IMBH binary signals obtained via numerical relativity, including the effects of spins misaligned with the binary orbital axis, and present the resulting upper limits on astrophysical merger rates. Our most stringent limit is for equal mass and aligned spin BH binary of total mass $200,M_odot$ and effective aligned spin 0.8 at $0.056,Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}$ (90 $%$ confidence), a factor of 3.5 more constraining than previous LIGO-Virgo limits. We also update the estimated rate of mergers similar to GW190521 to $0.08, Gpc^{-3}yr^{-1}$.
We present the results of a LIGO search for gravitational waves (GWs) associated with GRB 051103, a short-duration hard-spectrum gamma-ray burst (GRB) whose electromagnetically determined sky position is coincident with the spiral galaxy M81, which is 3.6 Mpc from Earth. Possible progenitors for short-hard GRBs include compact object mergers and soft gamma repeater (SGR) giant flares. A merger progenitor would produce a characteristic GW signal that should be detectable at the distance of M81, while GW emission from an SGR is not expected to be detectable at that distance. We found no evidence of a GW signal associated with GRB 051103. Assuming weakly beamed gamma-ray emission with a jet semi-angle of 30 deg we exclude a binary neutron star merger in M81 as the progenitor with a confidence of 98%. Neutron star-black hole mergers are excluded with > 99% confidence. If the event occurred in M81 our findings support the the hypothesis that GRB 051103 was due to an SGR giant flare, making it the most distant extragalactic magnetar observed to date.
The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) discovered gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary black hole merger in 2015 September and may soon observe signals from neutron star mergers. There is considerable interest in searching for their faint and rapidly fading electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, though GW position uncertainties are as coarse as hundreds of square degrees. Because LIGOs sensitivity to binary neutron stars is limited to the local universe, the area on the sky that must be searched could be reduced by weighting positions by mass, luminosity, or star formation in nearby galaxies. Since GW observations provide information about luminosity distance, combining the reconstructed volume with positions and redshifts of galaxies could reduce the area even more dramatically. A key missing ingredient has been a rapid GW parameter estimation algorithm that reconstructs the full distribution of sky location and distance. We demonstrate the first such algorithm, which takes under a minute, fast enough to enable immediate EM follow-up. By combining the three-dimensional posterior with a galaxy catalog, we can reduce the number of galaxies that could conceivably host the event by a factor of 1.4, the total exposure time for the Swift X-ray Telescope by a factor of 2, the total exposure time for a synoptic optical survey by a factor of 2, and the total exposure time for a narrow-field optical telescope by a factor of 3. This encourages us to suggest a new role for small field of view optical instruments in performing targeted searches of the most massive galaxies within the reconstructed volumes.
We report on the population of the 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate 1/yr in the second LIGO--Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog, GWTC-2. We observe several characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, we find that the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power-law with a sharp high-mass cut-off; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at $39.7^{+20.3}_{-9.1},M_odot$, or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at $33.1^{+4.0}_{-5.6},M_odot$ (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to $sim65,M_odot$ or beyond, only $2.9^{+3.5}_{1.7}%$ of systems have primary masses greater than $45,M_odot$. Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, 12% to 44% of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than $90^circ$, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter $chi_mathrm{eff}$. Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBH with non-vanishing $|chi_mathrm{eff}| > 0.01$ are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding $mathcal{R}_text{BBH} = 23.9^{+14.3}_{8.6}$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ for BBH and $mathcal{R}_text{BNS}= 320^{+490}_{-240}$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ for binary neutron stars. We find that the BBH rate likely increases with redshift ($85%$ credibility), but not faster than the star-formation rate ($86%$ credibility). Additionally, we examine recent exceptional events in the context of our population models, finding that the asymmetric masses of GW190412 and the high component masses of GW190521 are consistent with our models, but the low secondary mass of GW190814 makes it an outlier.
We present a revised version of Peters (1964) time-scale for the gravitational-wave (GW) induced decay of two point masses. The new formula includes the effects of the first-order post-Newtonian perturbation and additionally provides a simple fit to account for the Newtonian self-consistent evolution of the eccentricity. The revised time-scale is found by multiplying Peters estimate by two factors, $R(e_0)= 8^{1-sqrt{1-e_0}}$ and $Q_{rm f}(p_0) = exp left(2.5 (r_{rm S}/p_0) right)$, where $e_0$ and $p_0$ are the initial eccentricity and periapsis, respectively, and $r_{rm S}$ the Schwarzschild radius of the system. Their use can correct errors of a factor of 1-10 that arise from using the original Peters formula. We apply the revised time-scales to a set of typical sources for existing ground-based laser interferometers and for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), at the onset of their GW driven decay. We argue that our more accurate model for the orbital evolution will affect current event- and detection-rate estimates for mergers of compact object binaries, with stronger deviations for eccentric LISA sources, such as extreme and intermediate mass-ratio inspirals. We propose the correction factors $R$ and $Q_{rm f}$ as a simple prescription to quantify decay time-scales more accurately in future population synthesis models. We also suggest that the corrected time-scale may be used as a computationally efficient alternative to numerical integration in other applications that include the modelling of radiation reaction for eccentric sources.
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