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Knowing the causal structure of a system is of fundamental interest in many areas of science and can aid the design of prediction algorithms that work well under manipulations to the system. The causal structure becomes identifiable from the observational distribution under certain restrictions. To learn the structure from data, score-based methods evaluate different graphs according to the quality of their fits. However, for large nonlinear models, these rely on heuristic optimization approaches with no general guarantees of recovering the true causal structure. In this paper, we consider structure learning of directed trees. We propose a fast and scalable method based on Chu-Liu-Edmonds algorithm we call causal additive trees (CAT). For the case of Gaussian errors, we prove consistency in an asymptotic regime with a vanishing identifiability gap. We also introduce a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error rate control that is valid post-selection and in unidentified settings. Furthermore, we study the identifiability gap, which quantifies how much better the true causal model fits the observational distribution, and prove that it is lower bounded by local properties of the causal model. Simulation studies demonstrate the favorable performance of CAT compared to competing structure learning methods.
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We develop a Bregman proximal gradient method for structure learning on linear structural causal models. While the problem is non-convex, has high curvature and is in fact NP-hard, Bregman gradient methods allow us to neutralize at least part of the impact of curvature by measuring smoothness against a highly nonlinear kernel. This allows the method to make longer steps and significantly improves convergence. Each iteration requires solving a Bregman proximal step which is convex and efficiently solvable for our particular choice of kernel. We test our method on various synthetic and real data sets.
In this article, we propose a new hypothesis testing method for directed acyclic graph (DAG). While there is a rich class of DAG estimation methods, there is a relative paucity of DAG inference solutions. Moreover, the existing methods often impose some specific model structures such as linear models or additive models, and assume independent data observations. Our proposed test instead allows the associations among the random variables to be nonlinear and the data to be time-dependent. We build the test based on some highly flexible neural networks learners. We establish the asymptotic guarantees of the test, while allowing either the number of subjects or the number of time points for each subject to diverge to infinity. We demonstrate the efficacy of the test through simulations and a brain connectivity network analysis.
Stochastic sparse linear bandits offer a practical model for high-dimensional online decision-making problems and have a rich information-regret structure. In this work we explore the use of information-directed sampling (IDS), which naturally balances the information-regret trade-off. We develop a class of information-theoretic Bayesian regret bounds that nearly match existing lower bounds on a variety of problem instances, demonstrating the adaptivity of IDS. To efficiently implement sparse IDS, we propose an empirical Bayesian approach for sparse posterior sampling using a spike-and-slab Gaussian-Laplace prior. Numerical results demonstrate significant regret reductions by sparse IDS relative to several baselines.
This paper considers the problem of modeling and estimating community memberships of nodes in a directed network where every row (column) node is associated with a vector determining its membership in each row (column) community. To model such directed network, we propose directed degree corrected mixed membership (DiDCMM) model by considering degree heterogeneity. DiDCMM is identifiable under popular conditions for mixed membership network when considering degree heterogeneity. Based on the cone structure inherent in the normalized version of the left singular vectors and the simplex structure inherent in the right singular vectors of the population adjacency matrix, we build an efficient algorithm called DiMSC to infer the community membership vectors for both row nodes and column nodes. By taking the advantage of DiMSCs equivalence algorithm which returns same estimations as DiMSC and the recent development on row-wise singular vector deviation, we show that the proposed algorithm is asymptotically consistent under mild conditions by providing error bounds for the inferred membership vectors of each row node and each column node under DiDCMM. The theory is supplemented by a simulation study.
We introduce a simple and efficient algorithm for stochastic linear bandits with finitely many actions that is asymptotically optimal and (nearly) worst-case optimal in finite time. The approach is based on the frequentist information-directed sampling (IDS) framework, with a surrogate for the information gain that is informed by the optimization problem that defines the asymptotic lower bound. Our analysis sheds light on how IDS balances the trade-off between regret and information and uncovers a surprising connection between the recently proposed primal-dual methods and the IDS algorithm. We demonstrate empirically that IDS is competitive with UCB in finite-time, and can be significantly better in the asymptotic regime.
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