No Arabic abstract
The maximum likelihood threshold (MLT) of a graph $G$ is the minimum number of samples to almost surely guarantee existence of the maximum likelihood estimate in the corresponding Gaussian graphical model. We give a new characterization of the MLT in terms of rigidity-theoretic properties of $G$ and use this characterization to give new combinatorial lower bounds on the MLT of any graph. Our bounds, based on global rigidity, generalize existing bounds and are considerably sharper. We classify the graphs with MLT at most three, and compute the MLT of every graph with at most $9$ vertices. Additionally, for each $k$ and $nge k$, we describe graphs with $n$ vertices and MLT $k$, adding substantially to a previously small list of graphs with known MLT. We also give a purely geometric characterization of the MLT of a graph in terms of a new lifting problem for frameworks that is interesting in its own right. The lifting perspective yields a new connection between the weak MLT (where the maximum likelihood estimate exists only with positive probability) and the classical Hadwiger-Nelson problem.
We derive Laplace-approximated maximum likelihood estimators (GLAMLEs) of parameters in our Graph Generalized Linear Latent Variable Models. Then, we study the statistical properties of GLAMLEs when the number of nodes $n_V$ and the observed times of a graph denoted by $K$ diverge to infinity. Finally, we display the estimation results in a Monte Carlo simulation considering different numbers of latent variables. Besides, we make a comparison between Laplace and variational approximations for inference of our model.
The mixed fractional Vasicek model, which is an extended model of the traditional Vasicek model, has been widely used in modelling volatility, interest rate and exchange rate. Obviously, if some phenomenon are modeled by the mixed fractional Vasicek model, statistical inference for this process is of great interest. Based on continuous time observations, this paper considers the problem of estimating the drift parameters in the mixed fractional Vasicek model. We will propose the maximum likelihood estimators of the drift parameters in the mixed fractional Vasicek model with the Radon-Nikodym derivative for a mixed fractional Brownian motion. Using the fundamental martingale and the Laplace transform, both the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators have been established for all $Hin(0,1)$, $H eq 1/2$.
Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy, e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site. Standard randomized controlled trials are typically not feasible, since the goal is to estimate policy performance on the entire system. Instead, the typical current practice involves dynamically alternating between the two policies for fixed lengths of time, and comparing the average performance of each over the intervals in which they were run as an estimate of the treatment effect. However, this approach suffers from *temporal interference*: one algorithm alters the state of the system as seen by the second algorithm, biasing estimates of the treatment effect. Further, the simple non-adaptive nature of such designs implies they are not sample efficient. We develop a benchmark theoretical model in which to study optimal experimental design for this setting. We view testing the two policies as the problem of estimating the steady state difference in reward between two unknown Markov chains (i.e., policies). We assume estimation of the steady state reward for each chain proceeds via nonparametric maximum likelihood, and search for consistent (i.e., asymptotically unbiased) experimental designs that are efficient (i.e., asymptotically minimum variance). Characterizing such designs is equivalent to a Markov decision problem with a minimum variance objective; such problems generally do not admit tractable solutions. Remarkably, in our setting, using a novel application of classical martingale analysis of Markov chains via Poissons equation, we characterize efficient designs via a succinct convex optimization problem. We use this characterization to propose a consistent, efficient online experimental design that adaptively samples the two Markov chains.
Mixture models are regularly used in density estimation applications, but the problem of estimating the mixing distribution remains a challenge. Nonparametric maximum likelihood produce estimates of the mixing distribution that are discrete, and these may be hard to interpret when the true mixing distribution is believed to have a smooth density. In this paper, we investigate an algorithm that produces a sequence of smooth estimates that has been conjectured to converge to the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator. Here we give a rigorous proof of this conjecture, and propose a new data-driven stopping rule that produces smooth near-maximum likelihood estimates of the mixing density, and simulations demonstrate the quality empirical performance of this estimator.
Statistical models with latent structure have a history going back to the 1950s and have seen widespread use in the social sciences and, more recently, in computational biology and in machine learning. Here we study the basic latent class model proposed originally by the sociologist Paul F. Lazarfeld for categorical variables, and we explain its geometric structure. We draw parallels between the statistical and geometric properties of latent class models and we illustrate geometrically the causes of many problems associated with maximum likelihood estimation and related statistical inference. In particular, we focus on issues of non-identifiability and determination of the model dimension, of maximization of the likelihood function and on the effect of symmetric data. We illustrate these phenomena with a variety of synthetic and real-life tables, of different dimension and complexity. Much of the motivation for this work stems from the 100 Swiss Francs problem, which we introduce and describe in detail.