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Register a new userRevisiting the AMS-02 antiproton excess: The role of correlated errors
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Cosmic-ray antiprotons are a remarkable diagnostic tool for the study of astroparticle physics processes in our Galaxy. While the bulk of measured antiprotons is consistent with a secondary origin, several studies have found evidence for a subdominant primary component in the AMS-02 data. In this proceedings article, we revisit the excess considering systematic errors that could affect the signal. Of particular importance are unknown correlations in the AMS-02 systematic errors, the dominant of which are associated with the cross sections for cosmic-ray absorption in the detector. We compute their correlations in a careful reevaluation of nuclear scattering data, utilizing the Glauber-Gribov theory to introduce a welcomed redundancy that we explore in a global fit. The inclusion of correlated errors has a dramatic effect on the significance of the signal. In particular, the analysis becomes more sensitive to the diffusion model at low rigidities. For a minimal extension beyond single-power-law diffusion, the global significance drops below 1$sigma$ severely questioning the robustness of the finding.
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Several studies have pointed out an excess in the AMS-02 antiproton spectrum at rigidities of 10-20 GV. Its spectral properties were found to be consistent with a dark-matter particle of mass 50-100 GeV which annihilates hadronically at roughly the thermal rate. In this work, we reinvestigate the antiproton excess including all relevant sources of systematic errors. Most importantly, we perform a realistic estimate of the correlations in the AMS-02 systematic error which could potentially fake a dark-matter signal. The dominant systematics in the relevant rigidity range originate from uncertainties in the cross sections for absorption of cosmic rays within the detector material. For the first time, we calculate their correlations within the full Glauber-Gribov theory of inelastic scattering. The AMS-02 correlations enter our spectral search for dark matter in the form of covariance matrices which we make publicly available for the cosmic-ray community. We find that the global significance of the antiproton excess is reduced to below 1 $sigma$ once all systematics, including the derived AMS-02 error correlations, are taken into account. No significant preference for a dark-matter signal in the AMS-02 antiproton data is found in the mass range 10-10000 GeV.
The AMS-02 collaboration has just released its first result of the cosmic positron fraction $e^+/(e^-+e^+)$ with high precision up to $sim 350$ GeV. The AMS-02 result shows the same trend with the previous PAMELA result, which requires extra electron/positron sources on top of the conventional cosmic ray background, either from astrophysical sources or from dark matter annihilation/decay. In this paper we try to figure out the nature of the extra sources by fitting to the AMS-02 $e^+/(e^-+e^+)$ data, as well as the electron and proton spectra by PAMELA and the $(e^-+e^+)$ spectrum by Fermi and HESS. We adopt the GALPROP package to calculate the propagation of the Galactic cosmic rays and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler to do the fit. We find that the AMS-02 data have implied essential difference from the PAMELA data. There is {rm tension} between the AMS-02 $e^+/(e^-+e^+)$ data and the Fermi/HESS $(e^-+e^+)$ spectrum, that the AMS-02 data requires less contribution from the extra sources than Fermi/HESS. Then we redo the fit without including the Fermi/HESS data. In this case both the pulsars and dark matter annihilation/decay can explain the AMS-02 data. The pulsar scenario has a soft inject spectrum with the power-law index $sim 2$, while the dark matter scenario needs $tau^+tau^-$ final state with mass $sim 600$ GeV and a boost factor $sim 200$.
Based on the precise nuclei data released by AMS-02, we study the spectra hardening of both the primary (proton, helium, carbon, oxygen, and the primary component of nitrogen) and the secondary (anti-proton, lithium, beryllium, boron and the secondary component of nitrogen) cosmic ray (CR) nuclei. With the diffusion-reacceleration model, we consider two schemes to reproduce the hardening in the spectra: (i) A high-rigidity break in primary source injection; (ii) A high-rigidity break in diffusion coefficient. The global fitting results show that both schemes could reproduce the spectra hardening in current status. More precise multi-TV data (especially the data of secondary CR species) is needed if one wants to distinguish these two schemes. In our global fitting, each of the nuclei species is allocated an independent solar modulation potential and a re-scale factor (which accounts for the isotopic abundance for primary nuclei species and uncertainties of production cross section or inhomogeneity of CR sources and propagation for secondary nuclei species). The fitting values of these two parameter classes show us some hints on some new directions in CR physics. All the fitted re-scale factors of primary nuclei species have values that systematically smaller than 1.0, while that of secondary nuclei species are systematically larger than 1.0. Moreover, both the re-scale factor and solar modulation potential of beryllium have values which are obviously different from other species. This might indicate that beryllium has the specificity not only on its propagation in the heliosphere, but also on its production cross section. All these new results should be seriously studied in the future.
The precise spectra of Cosmic Ray (CR) electrons and positrons have been published by the measurement of AMS-02. It is reasonable to regard the difference between the electrons and positrons spectra ( $triangle Phi= Phi_{e^-}-Phi_{e^+}$ ) as being dominated by primary electrons. Noticing that the resulting electron spectrum shows no sign of spectral softening above 20 GeV, which is in contrast with the prediction of standard model. In this work, we generalize the analytic one dimensional two-halo model of diffusion to a three dimensional realistic calculation by implementing a spatial variant diffusion coefficients in DRAGON package. As a result, we can reproduce the spectral hardening of protons observed by several experiments, and predict an excess of high energy primary electrons which agrees with the measurement reasonably well. Unlike the break spectrum obtained for protons, the model calculation predicts a smooth electron excess and thus slightly over predicts the flux from tens of GeV to 100GeV. To understand this issue, further experimental and theoretical studies are necessary.
The AMS-02 experiment has ushered cosmic-ray physics into precision era. In a companion paper, we designed an improved method to calibrate propagation models on B/C data. Here we provide a robust prediction of the $bar{p}$ flux, accounting for several sources of uncertainties and their correlations. Combined with a correlation matrix for the $bar{p}$ data, we show that the latter are consistent with a secondary origin. This paper presents key elements relevant to the dark matter search in this channel, notably by pointing out the inherent difficulties in achieving predictions at the percent-level precision.
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