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Register a new userAccuracy on the Line: On the Strong Correlation Between Out-of-Distribution and In-Distribution Generalization
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For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with in-distribution performance for a wide range of models and distribution shifts. Specifically, we demonstrate strong correlations between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance on variants of CIFAR-10 & ImageNet, a synthetic pose estimation task derived from YCB objects, satellite imagery classification in FMoW-WILDS, and wildlife classification in iWildCam-WILDS. The strong correlations hold across model architectures, hyperparameters, training set size, and training duration, and are more precise than what is expected from existing domain adaptation theory. To complete the picture, we also investigate cases where the correlation is weaker, for instance some synthetic distribution shifts from CIFAR-10-C and the tissue classification dataset Camelyon17-WILDS. Finally, we provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.
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The mismatch between training and target data is one major challenge for current machine learning systems. When training data is collected from multiple domains and the target domains include all training domains and other new domains, we are facing an Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem that aims to find a model with the best OOD accuracy. One of the definitions of OOD accuracy is worst-domain accuracy. In general, the set of target domains is unknown, and the worst over target domains may be unseen when the number of observed domains is limited. In this paper, we show that the worst accuracy over the observed domains may dramatically fail to identify the OOD accuracy. To this end, we introduce Influence Function, a classical tool from robust statistics, into the OOD generalization problem and suggest the variance of influence function to monitor the stability of a model on training domains. We show that the accuracy on test domains and the proposed index together can help us discern whether OOD algorithms are needed and whether a model achieves good OOD generalization.
Can models with particular structure avoid being biased towards spurious correlation in out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization? Peters et al. (2016) provides a positive answer for linear cases. In this paper, we use a functional modular probing method to analyze deep model structures under OOD setting. We demonstrate that even in biased models (which focus on spurious correlation) there still exist unbiased functional subnetworks. Furthermore, we articulate and demonstrate the functional lottery ticket hypothesis: full network contains a subnetwork that can achieve better OOD performance. We then propose Modular Risk Minimization to solve the subnetwork selection problem. Our algorithm learns the subnetwork structure from a given dataset, and can be combined with any other OOD regularization methods. Experiments on various OOD generalization tasks corroborate the effectiveness of our method.
Learning data representations that are useful for various downstream tasks is a cornerstone of artificial intelligence. While existing methods are typically evaluated on downstream tasks such as classification or generative image quality, we propose to assess representations through their usefulness in downstream control tasks, such as reaching or pushing objects. By training over 10,000 reinforcement learning policies, we extensively evaluate to what extent different representation properties affect out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Finally, we demonstrate zero-shot transfer of these policies from simulation to the real world, without any domain randomization or fine-tuning. This paper aims to establish the first systematic characterization of the usefulness of learned representations for real-world OOD downstream tasks.
Modern neural networks can assign high confidence to inputs drawn from outside the training distribution, posing threats to models in real-world deployments. While much research attention has been placed on designing new out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods, the precise definition of OOD is often left in vagueness and falls short of the desired notion of OOD in reality. In this paper, we present a new formalization and model the data shifts by taking into account both the invariant and environmental (spurious) features. Under such formalization, we systematically investigate how spurious correlation in the training set impacts OOD detection. Our results suggest that the detection performance is severely worsened when the correlation between spurious features and labels is increased in the training set. We further show insights on detection methods that are more effective in reducing the impact of spurious correlation and provide theoretical analysis on why reliance on environmental features leads to high OOD detection error. Our work aims to facilitate a better understanding of OOD samples and their formalization, as well as the exploration of methods that enhance OOD detection.
The invariance principle from causality is at the heart of notable approaches such as invariant risk minimization (IRM) that seek to address out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization failures. Despite the promising theory, invariance principle-based approaches fail in common classification tasks, where invariant (causal) features capture all the information about the label. Are these failures due to the methods failing to capture the invariance? Or is the invariance principle itself insufficient? To answer these questions, we revisit the fundamental assumptions in linear regression tasks, where invariance-based approaches were shown to provably generalize OOD. In contrast to the linear regression tasks, we show that for linear classification tasks we need much stronger restrictions on the distribution shifts, or otherwise OOD generalization is impossible. Furthermore, even with appropriate restrictions on distribution shifts in place, we show that the invariance principle alone is insufficient. We prove that a form of the information bottleneck constraint along with invariance helps address key failures when invariant features capture all the information about the label and also retains the existing success when they do not. We propose an approach that incorporates both of these principles and demonstrate its effectiveness in several experiments.
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