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Register a new userShort-term probabilistic photovoltaic power forecast based on deep convolutional long short-term memory network and kernel density estimation
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Solar energy is a clean and renewable energy. Photovoltaic (PV) power is an important way to utilize solar energy. Accurate PV power forecast is crucial to the large-scale application of PV power and the stability of electricity grid. This paper proposes a novel method for short-term photovoltaic power forecast using deep convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) network and kernel density estimation (KDE). In the proposed method, ConvLSTM is used to forecast the future photovoltaic power and KDE is used for estimating the joint probabilistic density function and giving the probabilistic confidence interval. Experiments in an actual photovoltaic power station verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Comparison experiments with convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM)shows that ConvLSTM can combine the advantages of both CNN and LSTM and significantly outperform CNN and LSTM in terms of forecast accuracy. Through further comparison with other five conventional methods including multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), extreme learning machine (ELM), classification and regression tree (CART) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), ConvLSTM can significantly improve the forecast accuracy by more than 20% for most of the five methods and the superiorities of ConvLSTM are further verified.
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We propose a method using a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to estimate the noise power spectral density (PSD) of single-channel audio signals represented in the short time Fourier transform (STFT) domain. An LSTM network common to all frequency bands is trained, which processes each frequency band individually by mapping the noisy STFT magnitude sequence to its corresponding noise PSD sequence. Unlike deep-learning-based speech enhancement methods that learn the full-band spectral structure of speech segments, the proposed method exploits the sub-band STFT magnitude evolution of noise with a long time dependency, in the spirit of the unsupervised noise estimators described in the literature. Speaker- and speech-independent experiments with different types of noise show that the proposed method outperforms the unsupervised estimators, and generalizes well to noise types that are not present in the training set.
A reliable forecast of inflows to the reservoir is a key factor in the optimal operation of reservoirs. Real-time operation of the reservoir based on forecasts of inflows can lead to substantial economic gains. However, the forecast of inflow is an intricate task as it has to incorporate the impacts of climate and hydrological changes. Therefore, the major objective of the present work is to develop a novel approach based on long short-term memory (LSTM) for the forecast of inflows. Real-time inflow forecast, in other words, daily inflow at the reservoir helps in efficient operation of water resources. Also, daily variations in the release can be monitored efficiently and the reliability of operation is improved. This work proposes a naive anomaly detection algorithm baseline based on LSTM. In other words, a strong baseline to forecast flood and drought for any deep learning-based prediction model. The practicality of the approach has been demonstrated using the observed daily data of the past 20 years from Bhakra Dam in India. The results of the simulations conducted herein clearly indicate the supremacy of the LSTM approach over the traditional methods of forecasting. Although, experiments are run on data from Bhakra Dam Reservoir in India, LSTM model, and anomaly detection algorithm are general purpose and can be applied to any basin with minimal changes. A distinct practical advantage of the LSTM method presented herein is that it can adequately simulate non-stationarity and non-linearity in the historical data.
We investigate a new method to augment recurrent neural networks with extra memory without increasing the number of network parameters. The system has an associative memory based on complex-valued vectors and is closely related to Holographic Reduced Representations and Long Short-Term Memory networks. Holographic Reduced Representations have limited capacity: as they store more information, each retrieval becomes noisier due to interference. Our system in contrast creates redundant copies of stored information, which enables retrieval with reduced noise. Experiments demonstrate faster learning on multiple memorization tasks.
Tropical cyclones can be of varied intensity and cause a huge loss of lives and property if the intensity is high enough. Therefore, the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones advance in time is of utmost importance. We propose a novel stacked bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) based model architecture to predict the intensity of a tropical cyclone in terms of Maximum surface sustained wind speed (MSWS). The proposed model can predict MSWS well advance in time (up to 72 h) with very high accuracy. We have applied the model on tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean from 1982 to 2018 and checked its performance on two recent tropical cyclones, namely, Fani and Vayu. The model predicts MSWS (in knots) for the next 3, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours with a mean absolute error of 1.52, 3.66, 5.88, 7.42, 8.96, 10.15, and 11.92, respectively.
Advanced travel information and warning, if provided accurately, can help road users avoid traffic congestion through dynamic route planning and behavior change. It also enables traffic control centres mitigate the impact of congestion by activating Intelligent Transport System (ITS) proactively. Deep learning has become increasingly popular in recent years, following a surge of innovative GPU technology, high-resolution, big datasets and thriving machine learning algorithms. However, there are few examples exploiting this emerging technology to develop applications for traffic prediction. This is largely due to the difficulty in capturing random, seasonal, non-linear, and spatio-temporal correlated nature of traffic data. In this paper, we propose a data-driven modelling approach with a novel hierarchical D-CLSTM-t deep learning model for short-term traffic speed prediction, a framework combined with convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. A deep CNN model is employed to learn the spatio-temporal traffic patterns of the input graphs, which are then fed into a deep LSTM model for sequence learning. To capture traffic seasonal variations, time of the day and day of the week indicators are fused with trained features. The model is trained end-to-end to predict travel speed in 15 to 90 minutes in the future. We compare the model performance against other baseline models including CNN, LGBM, LSTM, and traditional speed-flow curves. Experiment results show that the D-CLSTM-t outperforms other models considerably. Model tests show that speed upstream also responds sensibly to a sudden accident occurring downstream. Our D-CLSTM-t model framework is also highly scalable for future extension such as for network-wide traffic prediction, which can also be improved by including additional features such as weather, long term seasonality and accident information.
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