No Arabic abstract
When a deep learning model is deployed in the wild, it can encounter test data drawn from distributions different from the training data distribution and suffer drop in performance. For safe deployment, it is essential to estimate the accuracy of the pre-trained model on the test data. However, the labels for the test inputs are usually not immediately available in practice, and obtaining them can be expensive. This observation leads to two challenging tasks: (1) unsupervised accuracy estimation, which aims to estimate the accuracy of a pre-trained classifier on a set of unlabeled test inputs; (2) error detection, which aims to identify mis-classified test inputs. In this paper, we propose a principled and practically effective framework that simultaneously addresses the two tasks. The proposed framework iteratively learns an ensemble of models to identify mis-classified data points and performs self-training to improve the ensemble with the identified points. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that our framework enjoys provable guarantees for both accuracy estimation and error detection under mild conditions readily satisfied by practical deep learning models. Along with the framework, we proposed and experimented with two instantiations and achieved state-of-the-art results on 59 tasks. For example, on iWildCam, one instantiation reduces the estimation error for unsupervised accuracy estimation by at least 70% and improves the F1 score for error detection by at least 4.7% compared to existing methods.
Self-training algorithms, which train a model to fit pseudolabels predicted by another previously-learned model, have been very successful for learning with unlabeled data using neural networks. However, the current theoretical understanding of self-training only applies to linear models. This work provides a unified theoretical analysis of self-training with deep networks for semi-supervised learning, unsupervised domain adaptation, and unsupervised learning. At the core of our analysis is a simple but realistic expansion assumption, which states that a low probability subset of the data must expand to a neighborhood with large probability relative to the subset. We also assume that neighborhoods of examples in different classes have minimal overlap. We prove that under these assumptions, the minimizers of population objectives based on self-training and input-consistency regularization will achieve high accuracy with respect to ground-truth labels. By using off-the-shelf generalization bounds, we immediately convert this result to sample complexity guarantees for neural nets that are polynomial in the margin and Lipschitzness. Our results help explain the empirical successes of recently proposed self-training algorithms which use input consistency regularization.
We present local ensembles, a method for detecting extrapolation at test time in a pre-trained model. We focus on underdetermination as a key component of extrapolation: we aim to detect when many possible predictions are consistent with the training data and model class. Our method uses local second-order information to approximate the variance of predictions across an ensemble of models from the same class. We compute this approximation by estimating the norm of the component of a test points gradient that aligns with the low-curvature directions of the Hessian, and provide a tractable method for estimating this quantity. Experimentally, we show that our method is capable of detecting when a pre-trained model is extrapolating on test data, with applications to out-of-distribution detection, detecting spurious correlates, and active learning.
Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that most models are not intrinsically well calibrated, meaning that their decision scores are not consistent with posterior probabilities. Hence being able to calibrate these models, or enforce calibration while learning them, has regained interest in recent literature. In this context, properly assessing calibration is paramount to quantify new contributions tackling calibration. However, there is room for improvement for commonly used metrics and evaluation of calibration could benefit from deeper analyses. Thus this paper focuses on the empirical evaluation of calibration metrics in the context of classification. More specifically it evaluates different estimators of the Expected Calibration Error ($ECE$), amongst which legacy estimators and some novel ones, proposed in this paper. We build an empirical procedure to quantify the quality of these $ECE$ estimators, and use it to decide which estimator should be used in practice for different settings.
We introduce a method called TracIn that computes the influence of a training example on a prediction made by the model. The idea is to trace how the loss on the test point changes during the training process whenever the training example of interest was utilized. We provide a scalable implementation of TracIn via: (a) a first-order gradient approximation to the exact computation, (b) saved checkpoints of standard training procedures, and (c) cherry-picking layers of a deep neural network. In contrast with previously proposed methods, TracIn is simple to implement; all it needs is the ability to work with gradients, checkpoints, and loss functions. The method is general. It applies to any machine learning model trained using stochastic gradient descent or a variant of it, agnostic of architecture, domain and task. We expect the method to be widely useful within processes that study and improve training data.
The common self-supervised pre-training practice requires collecting massive unlabeled data together and then trains a representation model, dubbed textbf{joint training}. However, in real-world scenarios where data are collected in a streaming fashion, the joint training scheme is usually storage-heavy and time-consuming. A more efficient alternative is to train a model continually with streaming data, dubbed textbf{sequential training}. Nevertheless, it is unclear how well sequential self-supervised pre-training performs with streaming data. In this paper, we conduct thorough experiments to investigate self-supervised pre-training with streaming data. Specifically, we evaluate the transfer performance of sequential self-supervised pre-training with four different data sequences on three different downstream tasks and make comparisons with joint self-supervised pre-training. Surprisingly, we find sequential self-supervised learning exhibits almost the same performance as the joint training when the distribution shifts within streaming data are mild. Even for data sequences with large distribution shifts, sequential self-supervised training with simple techniques, e.g., parameter regularization or data replay, still performs comparably to joint training. Based on our findings, we recommend using sequential self-supervised training as a textbf{more efficient yet performance-competitive} representation learning practice for real-world applications.