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Register a new userDecadal Forecasts with ResDMD: a Residual DMD Neural Network
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Eduardo Rodrigues
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Operational forecasting centers are investing in decadal (1-10 year) forecast systems to support long-term decision making for a more climate-resilient society. One method that has previously been employed is the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) algorithm - also known as the Linear Inverse Model - which fits linear dynamical models to data. While the DMD usually approximates non-linear terms in the true dynamics as a linear system with random noise, we investigate an extension to the DMD that explicitly represents the non-linear terms as a neural network. Our weight initialization allows the network to produce sensible results before training and then improve the prediction after training as data becomes available. In this short paper, we evaluate the proposed architecture for simulating global sea surface temperatures and compare the results with the standard DMD and seasonal forecasts produced by the state-of-the-art dynamical model, CFSv2.
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Inspired by the success of classical neural networks, there has been tremendous effort to develop classical effective neural networks into quantum concept. In this paper, a novel hybrid quantum-classical neural network with deep residual learning (Res-HQCNN) is proposed. We firstly analysis how to connect residual block structure with a quantum neural network, and give the corresponding training algorithm. At the same time, the advantages and disadvantages of transforming deep residual learning into quantum concept are provided. As a result, the model can be trained in an end-to-end fashion, analogue to the backpropagation in classical neural networks. To explore the effectiveness of Res-HQCNN , we perform extensive experiments for quantum data with or without noisy on classical computer. The experimental results show the Res-HQCNN performs better to learn an unknown unitary transformation and has stronger robustness for noisy data, when compared to state of the arts. Moreover, the possible methods of combining residual learning with quantum neural networks are also discussed.
For NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems, it is usually difficult to find high-quality solutions in polynomial time. The design of either an exact algorithm or an approximate algorithm for these problems often requires significantly specialized knowledge. Recently, deep learning methods provide new directions to solve such problems. In this paper, an end-to-end deep reinforcement learning framework is proposed to solve this type of combinatorial optimization problems. This framework can be applied to different problems with only slight changes of input (for example, for a traveling salesman problem (TSP), the input is the two-dimensional coordinates of nodes; while for a capacity-constrained vehicle routing problem (CVRP), the input is simply changed to three-dimensional vectors including the two-dimensional coordinates and the customer demands of nodes), masks and decoder context vectors. The proposed framework is aiming to improve the models in literacy in terms of the neural network model and the training algorithm. The solution quality of TSP and the CVRP up to 100 nodes are significantly improved via our framework. Specifically, the average optimality gap is reduced from 4.53% (reported best cite{R22}) to 3.67% for TSP with 100 nodes and from 7.34% (reported best cite{R22}) to 6.68% for CVRP with 100 nodes when using the greedy decoding strategy. Furthermore, our framework uses about 1/3$sim$3/4 training samples compared with other existing learning methods while achieving better results. The results performed on randomly generated instances and the benchmark instances from TSPLIB and CVRPLIB confirm that our framework has a linear running time on the problem size (number of nodes) during the testing phase, and has a good generalization performance from random instance training to real-world instance testing.
In recent years, the prosperity of deep learning has revolutionized the Artificial Neural Networks. However, the dependence of gradients and the offline training mechanism in the learning algorithms prevents the ANN for further improvement. In this study, a gradient-free training framework based on data assimilation is proposed to avoid the calculation of gradients. In data assimilation algorithms, the error covariance between the forecasts and observations is used to optimize the parameters. Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) are trained by gradient decent, data assimilation algorithms (Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ESMDA)), respectively. ESMDA trains FNN with pre-defined iterations by updating the parameters using all the available observations which can be regard as offline learning. EnKF optimize FNN when new observation available by updating parameters which can be regard as online learning. Two synthetic cases with the regression of a Sine Function and a Mexican Hat function are assumed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) are used as criteria to assess the performance of different methods. The results show that the proposed training framework performed better than the gradient decent method. The proposed framework provides alternatives for online/offline training the existing ANNs (e.g., Convolutional Neural Networks, Recurrent Neural Networks) without the dependence of gradients.
The heavy traffic and related issues have always been concerns for modern cities. With the help of deep learning and reinforcement learning, people have proposed various policies to solve these traffic-related problems, such as smart traffic signal control systems and taxi dispatching systems. People usually validate these policies in a city simulator, since directly applying them in the real city introduces real cost. However, these policies validated in the city simulator may fail in the real city if the simulator is significantly different from the real world. To tackle this problem, we need to build a real-like traffic simulation system. Therefore, in this paper, we propose to learn the human routing model, which is one of the most essential part in the traffic simulator. This problem has two major challenges. First, human routing decisions are determined by multiple factors, besides the common time and distance factor. Second, current historical routes data usually covers just a small portion of vehicles, due to privacy and device availability issues. To address these problems, we propose a theory-guided residual network model, where the theoretical part can emphasize the general principles for human routing decisions (e.g., fastest route), and the residual part can capture drivable condition preferences (e.g., local road or highway). Since the theoretical part is composed of traditional shortest path algorithms that do not need data to train, our residual network can learn human routing models from limited data. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets to show the superior performance of our model, especially with small data. Besides, we have also illustrated why our model is better at recovering real routes through case studies.
The transition from conventional methods of energy production to renewable energy production necessitates better prediction models of the upcoming supply of renewable energy. In wind power production, error in forecasting production is impossible to negate owing to the intermittence of wind. For successful power grid integration, it is crucial to understand the uncertainties that arise in predicting wind power production and use this information to build an accurate and reliable forecast. This can be achieved by observing the fluctuations in wind power production with changes in different parameters such as wind speed, temperature, and wind direction, and deriving functional dependencies for the same. Using optimized machine learning algorithms, it is possible to find obscured patterns in the observations and obtain meaningful data, which can then be used to accurately predict wind power requirements . Utilizing the required data provided by the Gamesas wind farm at Bableshwar, the paper explores the use of both parametric and the non-parametric models for calculating wind power prediction using power curves. The obtained results are subject to comparison to better understand the accuracy of the utilized models and to determine the most suitable model for predicting wind power production based on the given data set.
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