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Register a new userLearning effective stochastic differential equations from microscopic simulations: combining stochastic numerics and deep learning
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We identify effective stochastic differential equations (SDE) for coarse observables of fine-grained particle- or agent-based simulations; these SDE then provide coarse surrogate models of the fine scale dynamics. We approximate the drift and diffusivity functions in these effective SDE through neural networks, which can be thought of as effective stochastic ResNets. The loss function is inspired by, and embodies, the structure of established stochastic numerical integrators (here, Euler-Maruyama and Milstein); our approximations can thus benefit from error analysis of these underlying numerical schemes. They also lend themselves naturally to physics-informed gray-box identification when approximate coarse models, such as mean field equations, are available. Our approach does not require long trajectories, works on scattered snapshot data, and is designed to naturally handle different time steps per snapshot. We consider both the case where the coarse collective observables are known in advance, as well as the case where they must be found in a data-driven manner.
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We propose an accurate data-driven numerical scheme to solve Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs), by taking large time steps. The SDE discretization is built up by means of a polynomial chaos expansion method, on the basis of accurately determined stochastic collocation (SC) points. By employing an artificial neural network to learn these SC points, we can perform Monte Carlo simulations with large time steps. Error analysis confirms that this data-driven scheme results in accurate SDE solutions in the sense of strong convergence, provided the learning methodology is robust and accurate. With a variant method called the compression-decompression collocation and interpolation technique, we can drastically reduce the number of neural network functions that have to be learned, so that computational speed is enhanced. Numerical results show the high quality strong convergence error results, when using large time steps, and the novel scheme outperforms some classical numerical SDE discretizations. Some applications, here in financial option valuation, are also presented.
Agent-based models provide a flexible framework that is frequently used for modelling many biological systems, including cell migration, molecular dynamics, ecology, and epidemiology. Analysis of the model dynamics can be challenging due to their inherent stochasticity and heavy computational requirements. Common approaches to the analysis of agent-based models include extensive Monte Carlo simulation of the model or the derivation of coarse-grained differential equation models to predict the expected or averaged output from the agent-based model. Both of these approaches have limitations, however, as extensive computation of complex agent-based models may be infeasible, and coarse-grained differential equation models can fail to accurately describe model dynamics in certain parameter regimes. We propose that methods from the equation learning field provide a promising, novel, and unifying approach for agent-based model analysis. Equation learning is a recent field of research from data science that aims to infer differential equation models directly from data. We use this tutorial to review how methods from equation learning can be used to learn differential equation models from agent-based model simulations. We demonstrate that this framework is easy to use, requires few model simulations, and accurately predicts model dynamics in parameter regions where coarse-grained differential equation models fail to do so. We highlight these advantages through several case studies involving two agent-based models that are broadly applicable to biological phenomena: a birth-death-migration model commonly used to explore cell biology experiments and a susceptible-infected-recovered model of infectious disease spread.
We perform scalable approximate inference in a continuous-depth Bayesian neural network family. In this model class, uncertainty about separate weights in each layer gives hidden units that follow a stochastic differential equation. We demonstrate gradient-based stochastic variational inference in this infinite-parameter setting, producing arbitrarily-flexible approximate posteriors. We also derive a novel gradient estimator that approaches zero variance as the approximate posterior over weights approaches the true posterior. This approach brings continuous-depth Bayesian neural nets to a competitive comparison against discrete-depth alternatives, while inheriting the memory-efficient training and tunable precision of Neural ODEs.
Although deep-learning has been successfully applied in a variety of science and engineering problems owing to its strong high-dimensional nonlinear mapping capability, it is of limited use in scientific knowledge discovery. In this work, we propose a deep-learning based framework to discover the macroscopic governing equation of viscous gravity current based on high-resolution microscopic simulation data without the need for prior knowledge of underlying terms. For two typical scenarios with different viscosity ratios, the deep-learning based equations exactly capture the same dominated terms as the theoretically derived equations for describing long-term asymptotic behaviors, which validates the proposed framework. Unknown macroscopic equations are then obtained for describing short-term behaviors, and hidden mechanisms are eventually discovered with deep-learned explainable compensation terms and corresponding coefficients. Consequently, the presented deep-learning framework shows considerable potential for discovering unrevealed intrinsic laws in scientific semantic space from raw experimental or simulation results in data space.
High-dimensional partial differential equations (PDE) appear in a number of models from the financial industry, such as in derivative pricing models, credit valuation adjustment (CVA) models, or portfolio optimization models. The PDEs in such applications are high-dimensional as the dimension corresponds to the number of financial assets in a portfolio. Moreover, such PDEs are often fully nonlinear due to the need to incorporate certain nonlinear phenomena in the model such as default risks, transaction costs, volatility uncertainty (Knightian uncertainty), or trading constraints in the model. Such high-dimensional fully nonlinear PDEs are exceedingly difficult to solve as the computational effort for standard approximation methods grows exponentially with the dimension. In this work we propose a new method for solving high-dimensional fully nonlinear second-order PDEs. Our method can in particular be used to sample from high-dimensional nonlinear expectations. The method is based on (i) a connection between fully nonlinear second-order PDEs and second-order backward stochastic differential equations (2BSDEs), (ii) a merged formulation of the PDE and the 2BSDE problem, (iii) a temporal forward discretization of the 2BSDE and a spatial approximation via deep neural nets, and (iv) a stochastic gradient descent-type optimization procedure. Numerical results obtained using ${rm T{small ENSOR}F{small LOW}}$ in ${rm P{small YTHON}}$ illustrate the efficiency and the accuracy of the method in the cases of a $100$-dimensional Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equation, a $100$-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, and a nonlinear expectation of a $ 100 $-dimensional $ G $-Brownian motion.
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