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Register a new userProbabilistic Neural Network to Quantify Uncertainty of Wind Power Estimation
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Added by
Farzad Karami
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Each year a growing number of wind farms are being added to power grids to generate electricity. The power curve of a wind turbine, which exhibits the relationship between generated power and wind speed, plays a major role in assessing the performance of a wind farm. Neural networks have been used for power curve estimation. However, they do not produce a confidence measure for their output, unless computationally prohibitive Bayesian methods are used. In this paper, a probabilistic neural network with Monte Carlo dropout is considered to quantify the model (epistemic) uncertainty of the power curve estimation. This approach offers a minimal increase in computational complexity over deterministic approaches. Furthermore, by incorporating a probabilistic loss function, the noise or aleatoric uncertainty in the data is estimated. The developed network captures both model and noise uncertainty which is found to be useful tools in assessing performance. Also, the developed network is compared with existing ones across a public domain dataset showing superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy.
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Neural networks are discrete entities: subdivided into discrete layers and parametrized by weights which are iteratively optimized via difference equations. Recent work proposes networks with layer outputs which are no longer quantized but are solutions of an ordinary differential equation (ODE); however, these networks are still optimized via discrete methods (e.g. gradient descent). In this paper, we explore a different direction: namely, we propose a novel framework for learning in which the parameters themselves are solutions of ODEs. By viewing the optimization process as the evolution of a port-Hamiltonian system, we can ensure convergence to a minimum of the objective function. Numerical experiments have been performed to show the validity and effectiveness of the proposed methods.
Binarized neural networks, or BNNs, show great promise in edge-side applications with resource limited hardware, but raise the concerns of reduced accuracy. Motivated by the complex neural networks, in this paper we introduce complex representation into the BNNs and propose Binary complex neural network -- a novel network design that processes binary complex inputs and weights through complex convolution, but still can harvest the extraordinary computation efficiency of BNNs. To ensure fast convergence rate, we propose novel BCNN based batch normalization function and weight initialization function. Experimental results on Cifar10 and ImageNet using state-of-the-art network models (e.g., ResNet, ResNetE and NIN) show that BCNN can achieve better accuracy compared to the original BNN models. BCNN improves BNN by strengthening its learning capability through complex representation and extending its applicability to complex-valued input data. The source code of BCNN will be released on GitHub.
This paper is concerned with the utilization of deterministically modeled chemical reaction networks for the implementation of (feed-forward) neural networks. We develop a general mathematical framework and prove that the ordinary differential equations (ODEs) associated with certain reaction network implementations of neural networks have desirable properties including (i) existence of unique positive fixed points that are smooth in the parameters of the model (necessary for gradient descent), and (ii) fast convergence to the fixed point regardless of initial condition (necessary for efficient implementation). We do so by first making a connection between neural networks and fixed points for systems of ODEs, and then by constructing reaction networks with the correct associated set of ODEs. We demonstrate the theory by constructing a reaction network that implements a neural network with a smoothed ReLU activation function, though we also demonstrate how to generalize the construction to allow for other activation functions (each with the desirable properties listed previously). As there are multiple types of networks utilized in this paper, we also give a careful introduction to both reaction networks and neural networks, in order to disambiguate the overlapping vocabulary in the two settings and to clearly highlight the role of each networks properties.
Probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) is an important analytical tool to ensure the secure and economic operation of power systems. POPF needs to solve enormous nonlinear and nonconvex optimization problems. The huge computational burden has become the major bottleneck for the practical application. This paper presents a deep learning approach to solve the POPF problem efficiently and accurately. Taking advantage of the deep structure and reconstructive strategy of stacked denoising auto encoders (SDAE), a SDAE-based optimal power flow (OPF) is developed to extract the high-level nonlinear correlations between the system operating condition and the OPF solution. A training process is designed to learn the feature of POPF. The trained SDAE network can be utilized to conveniently calculate the OPF solution of random samples generated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) without the need of optimization. A modified IEEE 118-bus power system is simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
This survey samples from the ever-growing family of adaptive resonance theory (ART) neural network models used to perform the three primary machine learning modalities, namely, unsupervised, supervised and reinforcement learning. It comprises a representative list from classic to modern ART models, thereby painting a general picture of the architectures developed by researchers over the past 30 years. The learning dynamics of these ART models are briefly described, and their distinctive characteristics such as code representation, long-term memory and corresponding geometric interpretation are discussed. Useful engineering properties of ART (speed, configurability, explainability, parallelization and hardware implementation) are examined along with current challenges. Finally, a compilation of online software libraries is provided. It is expected that this overview will be helpful to new and seasoned ART researchers.
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