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Register a new userQuantifying Predictive Uncertainty in Medical Image Analysis with Deep Kernel Learning
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Added by
Zhiliang Wu
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Deep neural networks are increasingly being used for the analysis of medical images. However, most works neglect the uncertainty in the models prediction. We propose an uncertainty-aware deep kernel learning model which permits the estimation of the uncertainty in the prediction by a pipeline of a Convolutional Neural Network and a sparse Gaussian Process. Furthermore, we adapt different pre-training methods to investigate their impacts on the proposed model. We apply our approach to Bone Age Prediction and Lesion Localization. In most cases, the proposed model shows better performance compared to common architectures. More importantly, our model expresses systematically higher confidence in more accurate predictions and less confidence in less accurate ones. Our model can also be used to detect challenging and controversial test samples. Compared to related methods such as Monte-Carlo Dropout, our approach derives the uncertainty information in a purely analytical fashion and is thus computationally more efficient.
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The interpretation of medical images is a challenging task, often complicated by the presence of artifacts, occlusions, limited contrast and more. Most notable is the case of chest radiography, where there is a high inter-rater variability in the detection and classification of abnormalities. This is largely due to inconclusive evidence in the data or subjective definitions of disease appearance. An additional example is the classification of anatomical views based on 2D Ultrasound images. Often, the anatomical context captured in a frame is not sufficient to recognize the underlying anatomy. Current machine learning solutions for these problems are typically limited to providing probabilistic predictions, relying on the capacity of underlying models to adapt to limited information and the high degree of label noise. In practice, however, this leads to overconfident systems with poor generalization on unseen data. To account for this, we propose a system that learns not only the probabilistic estimate for classification, but also an explicit uncertainty measure which captures the confidence of the system in the predicted output. We argue that this approach is essential to account for the inherent ambiguity characteristic of medical images from different radiologic exams including computed radiography, ultrasonography and magnetic resonance imaging. In our experiments we demonstrate that sample rejection based on the predicted uncertainty can significantly improve the ROC-AUC for various tasks, e.g., by 8% to 0.91 with an expected rejection rate of under 25% for the classification of different abnormalities in chest radiographs. In addition, we show that using uncertainty-driven bootstrapping to filter the training data, one can achieve a significant increase in robustness and accuracy.
Active Learning methods create an optimized labeled training set from unlabeled data. We introduce a novel Online Active Deep Learning method for Medical Image Analysis. We extend our MedAL active learning framework to present new results in this paper. Our novel sampling method queries the unlabeled examples that maximize the average distance to all training set examples. Our online method enhances performance of its underlying baseline deep network. These novelties contribute significant performance improvements, including improving the models underlying deep network accuracy by 6.30%, using only 25% of the labeled dataset to achieve baseline accuracy, reducing backpropagated images during training by as much as 67%, and demonstrating robustness to class imbalance in binary and multi-class tasks.
With an increase in deep learning-based methods, the call for explainability of such methods grows, especially in high-stakes decision making areas such as medical image analysis. This survey presents an overview of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) used in deep learning-based medical image analysis. A framework of XAI criteria is introduced to classify deep learning-based medical image analysis methods. Papers on XAI techniques in medical image analysis are then surveyed and categorized according to the framework and according to anatomical location. The paper concludes with an outlook of future opportunities for XAI in medical image analysis.
Medical images are increasingly used as input to deep neural networks to produce quantitative values that aid researchers and clinicians. However, standard deep neural networks do not provide a reliable measure of uncertainty in those quantitative values. Recent work has shown that using dropout during training and testing can provide estimates of uncertainty. In this work, we investigate using dropout to estimate epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in a CT-to-MR image translation task. We show that both types of uncertainty are captured, as defined, providing confidence in the output uncertainty estimates.
Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&E) applications where risk management is a core component, well-characterized uncertainty estimates must accompany predictions. However, S&E observations and model-simulations often follow heavily skewed distributions and are not well modeled with DL approaches, since they usually optimize a Gaussian, or Euclidean, likelihood loss. Recent developments in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL), which attempts to capture uncertainties from noisy observations, aleatoric, and from unknown model parameters, epistemic, provide us a foundation. Here we present a discrete-continuous BDL model with Gaussian and lognormal likelihoods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate the approach by developing UQ estimates on `DeepSD, a super-resolution based DL model for Statistical Downscaling (SD) in climate applied to precipitation, which follows an extremely skewed distribution. We find that the discrete-continuous models outperform a basic Gaussian distribution in terms of predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration. Furthermore, we find that the lognormal distribution, which can handle skewed distributions, produces quality uncertainty estimates at the extremes. Such results may be important across S&E, as well as other domains such as finance and economics, where extremes are often of significant interest. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first UQ model in SD where both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are characterized.
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