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Register a new userCounterfactual Invariance to Spurious Correlations: Why and How to Pass Stress Tests
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Added by
Victor Veitch
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Informally, a `spurious correlation is the dependence of a model on some aspect of the input data that an analyst thinks shouldnt matter. In machine learning, these have a know-it-when-you-see-it character; e.g., changing the gender of a sentences subject changes a sentiment predictors output. To check for spurious correlations, we can `stress test models by perturbing irrelevant parts of input data and seeing if model predictions change. In this paper, we study stress testing using the tools of causal inference. We introduce emph{counterfactual invariance} as a formalization of the requirement that changing irrelevant parts of the input shouldnt change model predictions. We connect counterfactual invariance to out-of-domain model performance, and provide practical schemes for learning (approximately) counterfactual invariant predictors (without access to counterfactual examples). It turns out that both the means and implications of counterfactual invariance depend fundamentally on the true underlying causal structure of the data. Distinct causal structures require distinct regularization schemes to induce counterfactual invariance. Similarly, counterfactual invariance implies different domain shift guarantees depending on the underlying causal structure. This theory is supported by empirical results on text classification.
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We study why overparameterization -- increasing model size well beyond the point of zero training error -- can hurt test error on minority groups despite improving average test error when there are spurious correlations in the data. Through simulations and experiments on two image datasets, we identify two key properties of the training data that drive this behavior: the proportions of majority versus minority groups, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the spurious correlations. We then analyze a linear setting and theoretically show how the inductive bias of models towards memorizing fewer examples can cause overparameterization to hurt. Our analysis leads to a counterintuitive approach of subsampling the majority group, which empirically achieves low minority error in the overparameterized regime, even though the standard approach of upweighting the minority fails. Overall, our results suggest a tension between using overparameterized models versus using all the training data for achieving low worst-group error.
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Increasingly, software is making autonomous decisions in case of criminal sentencing, approving credit cards, hiring employees, and so on. Some of these decisions show bias and adversely affect certain social groups (e.g. those defined by sex, race, age, marital status). Many prior works on bias mitigation take the following form: change the data or learners in multiple ways, then see if any of that improves fairness. Perhaps a better approach is to postulate root causes of bias and then applying some resolution strategy. This paper postulates that the root causes of bias are the prior decisions that affect- (a) what data was selected and (b) the labels assigned to those examples. Our Fair-SMOTE algorithm removes biased labels; and rebalances internal distributions such that based on sensitive attribute, examples are equal in both positive and negative classes. On testing, it was seen that this method was just as effective at reducing bias as prior approaches. Further, models generated via Fair-SMOTE achieve higher performance (measured in terms of recall and F1) than other state-of-the-art fairness improvement algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, measured in terms of number of analyzed learners and datasets, this study is one of the largest studies on bias mitigation yet presented in the literature.
Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have demonstrated remarkable success in learning complicated behaviors from minimally processed input. However, most of this success is limited to simulation. While there are promising successes in applying RL algorithms directly on real systems, their performance on more complex systems remains bottle-necked by the relative data inefficiency of RL algorithms. Domain randomization is a promising direction of research that has demonstrated impressive results using RL algorithms to control real robots. At a high level, domain randomization works by training a policy on a distribution of environmental conditions in simulation. If the environments are diverse enough, then the policy trained on this distribution will plausibly generalize to the real world. A human-specified design choice in domain randomization is the form and parameters of the distribution of simulated environments. It is unclear how to the best pick the form and parameters of this distribution and prior work uses hand-tuned distributions. This extended abstract demonstrates that the choice of the distribution plays a major role in the performance of the trained policies in the real world and that the parameter of this distribution can be optimized to maximize the performance of the trained policies in the real world
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