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Register a new userDark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Multi-Probe Modeling Strategy and Validation
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This paper details the modeling pipeline and validates the baseline analysis choices of the DES Year 3 joint analysis of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (a so-called 3$times$2pt analysis). These analysis choices include the specific combination of cosmological probes, priors on cosmological and systematics parameters, model parameterizations for systematic effects and related approximations, and angular scales where the model assumptions are validated. We run a large number of simulated likelihood analyses using synthetic data vectors to test the robustness of our baseline analysis. We demonstrate that the DES Year 3 modeling pipeline, including the calibrated scale cuts, is sufficiently accurate relative to the constraining power of the DES Year 3 analyses. Our systematics mitigation strategy accounts for astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, source and lens magnification, baryonic effects, and source clustering, as well as for uncertainties in modeling the matter power spectrum, reduced shear, and estimator effects. We further demonstrate excellent agreement between two independently-developed modeling pipelines, and thus rule out any residual uncertainties due to the numerical implementation.
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We present the methodology for and detail the implementation of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 3x2pt DES Year 1 (Y1) analysis, which combines configuration-space two-point statistics from three different cosmological probes: cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering, using data from the first year of DES observations. We have developed two independent modeling pipelines and describe the code validation process. We derive expressions for analytical real-space multi-probe covariances, and describe their validation with numerical simulations. We stress-test the inference pipelines in simulated likelihood analyses that vary 6-7 cosmology parameters plus 20 nuisance parameters and precisely resemble the analysis to be presented in the DES 3x2pt analysis paper, using a variety of simulated input data vectors with varying assumptions. We find that any disagreement between pipelines leads to changes in assigned likelihood $Delta chi^2 le 0.045$ with respect to the statistical error of the DES Y1 data vector. We also find that angular binning and survey mask do not impact our analytic covariance at a significant level. We determine lower bounds on scales used for analysis of galaxy clustering (8 Mpc$~h^{-1}$) and galaxy-galaxy lensing (12 Mpc$~h^{-1}$) such that the impact of modeling uncertainties in the non-linear regime is well below statistical errors, and show that our analysis choices are robust against a variety of systematics. These tests demonstrate that we have a robust analysis pipeline that yields unbiased cosmological parameter inferences for the flagship 3x2pt DES Y1 analysis. We emphasize that the level of independent code development and subsequent code comparison as demonstrated in this paper is necessary to produce credible constraints from increasingly complex multi-probe analyses of current data.
We introduce a new software package for modeling the point-spread function (PSF) of astronomical images, called Piff (PSFs In the Full FOV), which we apply to the first three years (known as Y3) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data. We describe the relevant details about the algorithms used by Piff to model the PSF, including how the PSF model varies across the field of view (FOV). Diagnostic results show that the systematic errors from the PSF modeling are very small over the range of scales that are important for the DES Y3 weak lensing analysis. In particular, the systematic errors from the PSF modeling are significantly smaller than the corresponding results from the DES year one (Y1) analysis. We also briefly describe some planned improvements to Piff that we expect to further reduce the modeling errors in future analyses.
We present and characterize the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal measured using the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) covering 4132 deg$^2$. These galaxy-galaxy measurements are used in the DES Y3 3$times$2pt cosmological analysis, which combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering information. We use two lens samples: a magnitude-limited sample and the redMaGic sample, which span the redshift range $sim 0.2-1$ with 10.7 M and 2.6 M galaxies respectively. For the source catalog, we use the Metacalibration shape sample, consisting of $simeq$100 M galaxies separated into 4 tomographic bins. Our galaxy-galaxy lensing estimator is the mean tangential shear, for which we obtain a total S/N of $sim$148 for MagLim ($sim$120 for redMaGic), and $sim$67 ($sim$55) after applying the scale cuts of 6 Mpc/$h$. Thus we reach percent-level statistical precision, which requires that our modeling and systematic-error control be of comparable accuracy. The tangential shear model used in the 3$times$2pt cosmological analysis includes lens magnification, a five-parameter intrinsic alignment model (TATT), marginalization over a point-mass to remove information from small scales and a linear galaxy bias model validated with higher-order terms. We explore the impact of these choices on the tangential shear observable and study the significance of effects not included in our model, such as reduced shear, source magnification and source clustering. We also test the robustness of our measurements to various observational and systematics effects, such as the impact of observing conditions, lens-source clustering, random-point subtraction, scale-dependent Metacalibration responses, PSF residuals, and B-modes.
This work and its companion paper, Amon et al. (2021), present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter $S_8equivsigma_8sqrt{Omega_textrm{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in $Lambda$CDM: $S_8=0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the $Lambda$CDM analysis: $S_8=0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak-lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of $Lambda$CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower $S_8$ than the CMB-inferred value by $2.3sigma$ (a $p$-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3$sigma$ in the plane of $S_8timesOmega_textrm{m}$ caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.
We present a validation of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) $3times2$-point analysis choices by testing them on Buzzard v2.0, a new suite of cosmological simulations that is tailored for the testing and validation of combined galaxy clustering and weak lensing analyses. We show that the Buzzard v2.0 simulations accurately reproduce many important aspects of the DES Y3 data, including photometric redshift and magnitude distributions, and the relevant set of two-point clustering and weak lensing statistics. We then show that our model for the $3times2$-point data vector is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys assuming the true redshift distributions for our source and lens samples, demonstrating robustness to uncertainties in the modeling of the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and higher-order lensing corrections. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that our photometric redshift calibration methodology, including information from photometry, spectroscopy, clustering cross-correlations, and galaxy-galaxy lensing ratios, is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys in the presence of realistic photometric redshift uncertainties.
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