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Register a new userA Structural Model of Business Card Exchange Networks
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Social and professional networks affect labor market dynamics, knowledge diffusion and new business creation. To understand the determinants of how these networks are formed in the first place, we analyze a unique dataset of business cards exchanges among a sample of over 240,000 users of the multi-platform contact management and professional social networking tool for individuals Eight. We develop a structural model of network formation with strategic interactions, and we estimate users payoffs that depend on the composition of business relationships, as well as indirect business interactions. We allow heterogeneity of users in both observable and unobservable characteristics to affect how relationships form and are maintained. The models stationary equilibrium delivers a likelihood that is a mixture of exponential random graph models that we can characterize in closed-form. We overcome several econometric and computational challenges in estimation, by exploiting a two-step estimation procedure, variational approximations and minorization-maximization methods. Our algorithm is scalable, highly parallelizable and makes efficient use of computer memory to allow estimation in massive networks. We show that users payoffs display homophily in several dimensions, e.g. location; furthermore, users unobservable characteristics also display homophily.
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We investigate a model of stratified economic interactions between agents when the notion of spatial location is introduced. The agents are placed on a network with near-neighbor connections. Interactions between neighbors can occur only if the difference in their wealth is less than a threshold value that defines the width of the economic classes. By employing concepts from spatiotemporal dynamical systems, three types of patterns can be identified in the system as parameters are varied: laminar, intermittent and turbulent states. The transition from the laminar state to the turbulent state is characterized by the activity of the system, a quantity that measures the average exchange of wealth over long times. The degree of inequality in the wealth distribution for different parameter values is characterized by the Gini Coefficient. High levels of activity are associated to low values of the Gini coefficient. It is found that the topological properties of the network have little effect on the activity of the system, but the Gini coefficient increases when the clustering coefficient of the network is increased.
We introduce the Pricing Engine package to enable the use of Double ML estimation techniques in general panel data settings. Customization allows the user to specify first-stage models, first-stage featurization, second stage treatment selection and second stage causal-modeling. We also introduce a DynamicDML class that allows the user to generate dynamic treatment-aware forecasts at a range of leads and to understand how the forecasts will vary as a function of causally estimated treatment parameters. The Pricing Engine is built on Python 3.5 and can be run on an Azure ML Workbench environment with the addition of only a few Python packages. This note provides high-level discussion of the Double ML method, describes the packages intended use and includes an example Jupyter notebook demonstrating application to some publicly available data. Installation of the package and additional technical documentation is available at $href{https://github.com/bquistorff/pricingengine}{github.com/bquistorff/pricingengine}$.
Many natural, engineered, and social systems can be represented using the framework of a layered network, where each layer captures a different type of interaction between the same set of nodes. The study of such multiplex networks is a vibrant area of research. Yet, understanding how to quantify the correlations present between pairs of layers, and more so present in their co-evolution, is lacking. Such methods would enable us to address fundamental questions involving issues such as function, redundancy and potential disruptions. Here we show first how the edge-set of a multiplex network can be used to construct an estimator of a joint probability distribution describing edge existence over all layers. We then adapt an information-theoretic measure of general correlation called the conditional mutual information, which uses the estimated joint probability distribution, to quantify the pairwise correlations present between layers. The pairwise comparisons can also be temporal, allowing us to identify if knowledge of a certain layer can provide additional information about the evolution of another layer. We analyze datasets from three distinct domains---economic, political, and airline networks---to demonstrate how pairwise correlation in structure and dynamical evolution between layers can be identified and show that anomalies can serve as potential indicators of major events such as shocks.
In this paper, we consider the problem of exploring structural regularities of networks by dividing the nodes of a network into groups such that the members of each group have similar patterns of connections to other groups. Specifically, we propose a general statistical model to describe network structure. In this model, group is viewed as hidden or unobserved quantity and it is learned by fitting the observed network data using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Compared with existing models, the most prominent strength of our model is the high flexibility. This strength enables it to possess the advantages of existing models and overcomes their shortcomings in a unified way. As a result, not only broad types of structure can be detected without prior knowledge of what type of intrinsic regularities exist in the network, but also the type of identified structure can be directly learned from data. Moreover, by differentiating outgoing edges from incoming edges, our model can detect several types of structural regularities beyond competing models. Tests on a number of real world and artificial networks demonstrate that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art model at shedding light on the structural features of networks, including the overlapping community structure, multipartite structure and several other types of structure which are beyond the capability of existing models.
Modularity structures are common in various social and biological networks. However, its dynamical origin remains an open question. In this work, we set up a dynamical model describing the evolution of a social network. Based on the observations of real social networks, we introduced a link-creating/deleting strategy according to the local dynamics in the model. Thus the coevolution of dynamics and topology naturally determines the network properties. It is found that for a small coupling strength, the networked system cannot reach any synchronization and the network topology is homogeneous. Interestingly, when the coupling strength is large enough, the networked system spontaneously forms communities with different dynamical states. Meanwhile, the network topology becomes heterogeneous with modular structures. It is further shown that in a certain parameter regime, both the degree and the community size in the formed network follow a power-law distribution, and the networks are found to be assortative. These results are consistent with the characteristics of many empirical networks, and are helpful to understand the mechanism of formation of modularity in complex networks.
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