A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Transmission


Abstract in English

Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model uses a compartmental approach including dynamic and nonlinear behavior of transmission through three factors: susceptible, infected, and removed (recovered and deceased) individuals. Using the Lambert W Function, we propose a framework to study solutions of the SIR model. This demonstrates the applications of COVID-19 transmission data to model the spread of a real-world disease. Different models of disease including the SIR, SIRm and SEIR model are compared with respect to their ability to predict disease spread. Physical distancing impacts and personal protection equipment use will be discussed in relevance to the COVID-19 spread.

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