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Register a new userOnline Statistical Inference for Parameters Estimation with Linear-Equality Constraints
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Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and projected stochastic gradient descent (PSGD) are scalable algorithms to compute model parameters in unconstrained and constrained optimization problems. In comparison with stochastic gradient descent (SGD), PSGD forces its iterative values into the constrained parameter space via projection. The convergence rate of PSGD-type estimates has been exhaustedly studied, while statistical properties such as asymptotic distribution remain less explored. From a purely statistical point of view, this paper studies the limiting distribution of PSGD-based estimate when the true parameters satisfying some linear-equality constraints. Our theoretical findings reveal the role of projection played in the uncertainty of the PSGD estimate. As a byproduct, we propose an online hypothesis testing procedure to test the linear-equality constraints. Simulation studies on synthetic data and an application to a real-world dataset confirm our theory.
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Federated Learning (FL) makes a large amount of edge computing devices (e.g., mobile phones) jointly learn a global model without data sharing. In FL, data are generated in a decentralized manner with high heterogeneity. This paper studies how to perform statistical estimation and inference in the federated setting. We analyze the so-called Local SGD, a multi-round estimation procedure that uses intermittent communication to improve communication efficiency. We first establish a {it functional central limit theorem} that shows the averaged iterates of Local SGD weakly converge to a rescaled Brownian motion. We next provide two iterative inference methods: the {it plug-in} and the {it random scaling}. Random scaling constructs an asymptotically pivotal statistic for inference by using the information along the whole Local SGD path. Both the methods are communication efficient and applicable to online data. Our theoretical and empirical results show that Local SGD simultaneously achieves both statistical efficiency and communication efficiency.
Bootstrapping provides a flexible and effective approach for assessing the quality of batch reinforcement learning, yet its theoretical property is less understood. In this paper, we study the use of bootstrapping in off-policy evaluation (OPE), and in particular, we focus on the fitted Q-evaluation (FQE) that is known to be minimax-optimal in the tabular and linear-model cases. We propose a bootstrapping FQE method for inferring the distribution of the policy evaluation error and show that this method is asymptotically efficient and distributionally consistent for off-policy statistical inference. To overcome the computation limit of bootstrapping, we further adapt a subsampling procedure that improves the runtime by an order of magnitude. We numerically evaluate the bootrapping method in classical RL environments for confidence interval estimation, estimating the variance of off-policy evaluator, and estimating the correlation between multiple off-policy evaluators.
Estimators computed from adaptively collected data do not behave like their non-adaptive brethren. Rather, the sequential dependence of the collection policy can lead to severe distributional biases that persist even in the infinite data limit. We develop a general method -- $mathbf{W}$-decorrelation -- for transforming the bias of adaptive linear regression estimators into variance. The method uses only coarse-grained information about the data collection policy and does not need access to propensity scores or exact knowledge of the policy. We bound the finite-sample bias and variance of the $mathbf{W}$-estimator and develop asymptotically correct confidence intervals based on a novel martingale central limit theorem. We then demonstrate the empirical benefits of the generic $mathbf{W}$-decorrelation procedure in two different adaptive data settings: the multi-armed bandit and the autoregressive time series.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a well-known nonparametric Bayesian inference technique, but they suffer from scalability problems for large sample sizes, and their performance can degrade for non-stationary or spatially heterogeneous data. In this work, we seek to overcome these issues through (i) employing variational free energy approximations of GPs operating in tandem with online expectation propagation steps; and (ii) introducing a local splitting step which instantiates a new GP whenever the posterior distribution changes significantly as quantified by the Wasserstein metric over posterior distributions. Over time, then, this yields an ensemble of sparse GPs which may be updated incrementally, and adapts to locality, heterogeneity, and non-stationarity in training data.
We consider the problem of efficiently solving large-scale linear least squares problems that have one or more linear constraints that must be satisfied exactly. Whilst some classical approaches are theoretically well founded, they can face difficulties when the matrix of constraints contains dense rows or if an algorithmic transformation used in the solution process results in a modified problem that is much denser than the original one. To address this, we propose modifications and new ideas, with an emphasis on requiring the constraints are satisfied with a small residual. We examine combining the null-space method with our recently developed algorithm for computing a null space basis matrix for a ``wide matrix. We further show that a direct elimination approach enhanced by careful pivoting can be effective in transforming the problem to an unconstrained sparse-dense least squares problem that can be solved with existing direct or iterative methods. We also present a number of solution variants that employ an augmented system formulation, which can be attractive when solving a sequence of related problems. Numerical experiments using problems coming from practical applications are used throughout to demonstrate the effectiveness of the different approaches.
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