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Register a new userA Clustering Framework for Residential Electric Demand Profiles
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Soumyabrata Dev
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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The availability of residential electric demand profiles data, enabled by the large-scale deployment of smart metering infrastructure, has made it possible to perform more accurate analysis of electricity consumption patterns. This paper analyses the electric demand profiles of individual households located in the city Amsterdam, the Netherlands. A comprehensive clustering framework is defined to classify households based on their electricity consumption pattern. This framework consists of two main steps, namely a dimensionality reduction step of input electricity consumption data, followed by an unsupervised clustering algorithm of the reduced subspace. While any algorithm, which has been used in the literature for the aforementioned clustering task, can be used for the corresponding step, the more important question is to deduce which particular combination of algorithms is the best for a given dataset and a clustering task. This question is addressed in this paper by proposing a novel objective validation strategy, whose recommendations are then cross-verified by performing subjective validation.
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Large-scale deployment of smart meters has made it possible to collect sufficient and high-resolution data of residential electric demand profiles. Clustering analysis of these profiles is important to further analyze and comment on electricity consumption patterns. Although many clustering techniques have been proposed in the literature over the years, it is often noticed that different techniques fit best for different datasets. To identify the most suitable technique, standard clustering validity indices are often used. These indices focus primarily on the intrinsic characteristics of the clustering results. Moreover, different indices often give conflicting recommendations which can only be clarified with heuristics about the dataset and/or the expected cluster structures -- information that is rarely available in practical situations. This paper presents a novel scheme to validate and compare the clustering results objectively. Additionally, the proposed scheme considers all the steps prior to the clustering algorithm, including the pre-processing and dimensionality reduction steps, in order to provide recommendations over the complete framework. Accordingly, the proposed strategy is shown to provide better, unbiased, and uniform recommendations as compared to the standard Clustering Validity Indices.
Accurately forecasting ridesourcing demand is important for effective transportation planning and policy-making. With the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), researchers have started to utilize machine learning models to forecast travel demand, which, in many cases, can produce higher prediction accuracy than statistical models. However, most existing machine-learning studies used a global model to predict the demand and ignored the influence of spatial heterogeneity (i.e., the spatial variations in the impacts of explanatory variables). Spatial heterogeneity can drive the parameter estimations varying over space; failing to consider the spatial variations may limit the models prediction performance. To account for spatial heterogeneity, this study proposes a Clustering-aided Ensemble Method (CEM) to forecast the zone-to-zone (census-tract-to-census-tract) travel demand for ridesourcing services. Specifically, we develop a clustering framework to split the origin-destination pairs into different clusters and ensemble the cluster-specific machine learning models for prediction. We implement and test the proposed methodology by using the ridesourcing-trip data in Chicago. The results show that, with a more transparent and flexible model structure, the CEM significantly improves the prediction accuracy than the benchmark models (i.e., global machine-learning and statistical models directly trained on all observations). This study offers transportation researchers and practitioners a new methodology of travel demand forecasting, especially for new travel modes like ridesourcing and micromobility.
Medication errors continue to be the leading cause of avoidable patient harm in hospitals. This paper sets out a framework to assure medication safety that combines machine learning and safety engineering methods. It uses safety analysis to proactively identify potential causes of medication error, based on expert opinion. As healthcare is now data rich, it is possible to augment safety analysis with machine learning to discover actual causes of medication error from the data, and to identify where they deviate from what was predicted in the safety analysis. Combining these two views has the potential to enable the risk of medication errors to be managed proactively and dynamically. We apply the framework to a case study involving thoracic surgery, e.g. oesophagectomy, where errors in giving beta-blockers can be critical to control atrial fibrillation. This case study combines a HAZOP-based safety analysis method known as SHARD with Bayesian network structure learning and process mining to produce the analysis results, showing the potential of the framework for ensuring patient safety, and for transforming the way that safety is managed in complex healthcare environments.
Air pollution has long been a serious environmental health challenge, especially in metropolitan cities, where air pollutant concentrations are exacerbated by the street canyon effect and high building density. Whilst accurately monitoring and forecasting air pollution are highly crucial, existing data-driven models fail to fully address the complex interaction between air pollution and urban dynamics. Our Deep-AIR, a novel hybrid deep learning framework that combines a convolutional neural network with a long short-term memory network, aims to address this gap to provide fine-grained city-wide air pollution estimation and station-wide forecast. Our proposed framework creates 1x1 convolution layers to strengthen the learning of cross-feature spatial interaction between air pollution and important urban dynamic features, particularly road density, building density/height, and street canyon effect. Using Hong Kong and Beijing as case studies, Deep-AIR achieves a higher accuracy than our baseline models. Our model attains an accuracy of 67.6%, 77.2%, and 66.1% in fine-grained hourly estimation, 1-hr, and 24-hr air pollution forecast for Hong Kong, and an accuracy of 65.0%, 75.3%, and 63.5% for Beijing. Our saliency analysis has revealed that for Hong Kong, street canyon and road density are the best estimators for NO2, while meteorology is the best estimator for PM2.5.
In this paper, we focus on the fairness issues regarding unsupervised outlier detection. Traditional algorithms, without a specific design for algorithmic fairness, could implicitly encode and propagate statistical bias in data and raise societal concerns. To correct such unfairness and deliver a fair set of potential outlier candidates, we propose Deep Clustering based Fair Outlier Detection (DCFOD) that learns a good representation for utility maximization while enforcing the learnable representation to be subgroup-invariant on the sensitive attribute. Considering the coupled and reciprocal nature between clustering and outlier detection, we leverage deep clustering to discover the intrinsic cluster structure and out-of-structure instances. Meanwhile, an adversarial training erases the sensitive pattern for instances for fairness adaptation. Technically, we propose an instance-level weighted representation learning strategy to enhance the joint deep clustering and outlier detection, where the dynamic weight module re-emphasizes contributions of likely-inliers while mitigating the negative impact from outliers. Demonstrated by experiments on eight datasets comparing to 17 outlier detection algorithms, our DCFOD method consistently achieves superior performance on both the outlier detection validity and two types of fairness notions in outlier detection.
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