We develop a framework for analyzing layered quantum algorithms such as quantum alternating operator ansatze. Our framework relates quantum cost gradient operators, derived from the cost and mixing Hamiltonians, to classical cost difference functions that reflect cost function neighborhood structure. By considering QAOA circuits from the Heisenberg picture, we derive exact general expressions for expectation values as series expansions in the algorithm parameters, cost gradient operators, and cost difference functions. This enables novel interpretability and insight into QAOA behavior in various parameter regimes. For single- level QAOA1 we show the leading-order changes in the output probabilities and cost expectation value explicitly in terms of classical cost differences, for arbitrary cost functions. This demonstrates that, for sufficiently small positive parameters, probability flows from lower to higher cost states on average. By selecting signs of the parameters, we can control the direction of flow. We use these results to derive a classical random algorithm emulating QAOA1 in the small-parameter regime, i.e., that produces bitstring samples with the same probabilities as QAOA1 up to small error. For deeper QAOAp circuits we apply our framework to derive analogous and additional results in several settings. In particular we show QAOA always beats random guessing. We describe how our framework incorporates cost Hamiltonian locality for specific problem classes, including causal cone approaches, and applies to QAOA performance analysis with arbitrary parameters. We illuminate our results with a number of examples including applications to QUBO problems, MaxCut, and variants of MaxSat. We illustrate the application to QAOA circuits using mixing unitaries beyond the transverse-field mixer through two examples of constrained optimization, Max Independent Set and Graph Coloring.
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