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Register a new userAutoregressive Dynamics Models for Offline Policy Evaluation and Optimization
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Michael Zhang
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Standard dynamics models for continuous control make use of feedforward computation to predict the conditional distribution of next state and reward given current state and action using a multivariate Gaussian with a diagonal covariance structure. This modeling choice assumes that different dimensions of the next state and reward are conditionally independent given the current state and action and may be driven by the fact that fully observable physics-based simulation environments entail deterministic transition dynamics. In this paper, we challenge this conditional independence assumption and propose a family of expressive autoregressive dynamics models that generate different dimensions of the next state and reward sequentially conditioned on previous dimensions. We demonstrate that autoregressive dynamics models indeed outperform standard feedforward models in log-likelihood on heldout transitions. Furthermore, we compare different model-based and model-free off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods on RL Unplugged, a suite of offline MuJoCo datasets, and find that autoregressive dynamics models consistently outperform all baselines, achieving a new state-of-the-art. Finally, we show that autoregressive dynamics models are useful for offline policy optimization by serving as a way to enrich the replay buffer through data augmentation and improving performance using model-based planning.
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Offline reinforcement learning (RL) refers to the problem of learning policies entirely from a large batch of previously collected data. This problem setting offers the promise of utilizing such datasets to acquire policies without any costly or dangerous active exploration. However, it is also challenging, due to the distributional shift between the offline training data and those states visited by the learned policy. Despite significant recent progress, the most successful prior methods are model-free and constrain the policy to the support of data, precluding generalization to unseen states. In this paper, we first observe that an existing model-based RL algorithm already produces significant gains in the offline setting compared to model-free approaches. However, standard model-based RL methods, designed for the online setting, do not provide an explicit mechanism to avoid the offline settings distributional shift issue. Instead, we propose to modify the existing model-based RL methods by applying them with rewards artificially penalized by the uncertainty of the dynamics. We theoretically show that the algorithm maximizes a lower bound of the policys return under the true MDP. We also characterize the trade-off between the gain and risk of leaving the support of the batch data. Our algorithm, Model-based Offline Policy Optimization (MOPO), outperforms standard model-based RL algorithms and prior state-of-the-art model-free offline RL algorithms on existing offline RL benchmarks and two challenging continuous control tasks that require generalizing from data collected for a different task. The code is available at https://github.com/tianheyu927/mopo.
Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a promising approach for learning optimal policies in environments where direct exploration is expensive or unfeasible. However, the adoption of such policies in practice is often challenging, as they are hard to interpret within the application context, and lack measures of uncertainty for the learned policy value and its decisions. To overcome these issues, we propose an Expert-Supervised RL (ESRL) framework which uses uncertainty quantification for offline policy learning. In particular, we have three contributions: 1) the method can learn safe and optimal policies through hypothesis testing, 2) ESRL allows for different levels of risk averse implementations tailored to the application context, and finally, 3) we propose a way to interpret ESRLs policy at every state through posterior distributions, and use this framework to compute off-policy value function posteriors. We provide theoretical guarantees for our estimators and regret bounds consistent with Posterior Sampling for RL (PSRL). Sample efficiency of ESRL is independent of the chosen risk aversion threshold and quality of the behavior policy.
Model-based algorithms, which learn a dynamics model from logged experience and perform some sort of pessimistic planning under the learned model, have emerged as a promising paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (offline RL). However, practical variants of such model-based algorithms rely on explicit uncertainty quantification for incorporating pessimism. Uncertainty estimation with complex models, such as deep neural networks, can be difficult and unreliable. We overcome this limitation by developing a new model-based offline RL algorithm, COMBO, that regularizes the value function on out-of-support state-action tuples generated via rollouts under the learned model. This results in a conservative estimate of the value function for out-of-support state-action tuples, without requiring explicit uncertainty estimation. We theoretically show that our method optimizes a lower bound on the true policy value, that this bound is tighter than that of prior methods, and our approach satisfies a policy improvement guarantee in the offline setting. Through experiments, we find that COMBO consistently performs as well or better as compared to prior offline model-free and model-based methods on widely studied offline RL benchmarks, including image-based tasks.
This paper addresses the problem of policy selection in domains with abundant logged data, but with a very restricted interaction budget. Solving this problem would enable safe evaluation and deployment of offline reinforcement learning policies in industry, robotics, and recommendation domains among others. Several off-policy evaluation (OPE) techniques have been proposed to assess the value of policies using only logged data. However, there is still a big gap between the evaluation by OPE and the full online evaluation in the real environment. At the same time, large amount of online interactions is often not feasible in practice. To overcome this problem, we introduce emph{active offline policy selection} -- a novel sequential decision approach that combines logged data with online interaction to identify the best policy. This approach uses OPE estimates to warm start the online evaluation. Then, in order to utilize the limited environment interactions wisely, it relies on a Bayesian optimization method, with a kernel function that represents policy similarity, to decide which policy to evaluate next. We use multiple benchmarks with a large number of candidate policies to show that the proposed approach improves upon state-of-the-art OPE estimates and pure online policy evaluation.
We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning with model-based control, whose goal is to learn a dynamics model from the experience replay and obtain a pessimism-oriented agent under the learned model. Current model-based constraint includes explicit uncertainty penalty and implicit conservative regularization that pushes Q-values of out-of-distribution state-action pairs down and the in-distribution up. While the uncertainty estimation, on which the former relies on, can be loosely calibrated for complex dynamics, the latter performs slightly better. To extend the basic idea of regularization without uncertainty quantification, we propose distributionally robust offline model-based policy optimization (DROMO), which leverages the ideas in distributionally robust optimization to penalize a broader range of out-of-distribution state-action pairs beyond the standard empirical out-of-distribution Q-value minimization. We theoretically show that our method optimizes a lower bound on the ground-truth policy evaluation, and it can be incorporated into any existing policy gradient algorithms. We also analyze the theoretical properties of DROMOs linear and non-linear instantiations.
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