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Register a new userBlending Knowledge in Deep Recurrent Networks for Adverse Event Prediction at Hospital Discharge
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Added by
Prithwish Chakraborty
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Deep learning architectures have an extremely high-capacity for modeling complex data in a wide variety of domains. However, these architectures have been limited in their ability to support complex prediction problems using insurance claims data, such as readmission at 30 days, mainly due to data sparsity issue. Consequently, classical machine learning methods, especially those that embed domain knowledge in handcrafted features, are often on par with, and sometimes outperform, deep learning approaches. In this paper, we illustrate how the potential of deep learning can be achieved by blending domain knowledge within deep learning architectures to predict adverse events at hospital discharge, including readmissions. More specifically, we introduce a learning architecture that fuses a representation of patient data computed by a self-attention based recurrent neural network, with clinically relevant features. We conduct extensive experiments on a large claims dataset and show that the blended method outperforms the standard machine learning approaches.
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Origin-destination (OD) matrices are often used in urban planning, where a city is partitioned into regions and an element (i, j) in an OD matrix records the cost (e.g., travel time, fuel consumption, or travel speed) from region i to region j. In this paper, we partition a day into multiple intervals, e.g., 96 15-min intervals and each interval is associated with an OD matrix which represents the costs in the interval; and we consider sparse and stochastic OD matrices, where the elements represent stochastic but not deterministic costs and some elements are missing due to lack of data between two regions. We solve the sparse, stochastic OD matrix forecasting problem. Given a sequence of historical OD matrices that are sparse, we aim at predicting future OD matrices with no empty elements. We propose a generic learning framework to solve the problem by dealing with sparse matrices via matrix factorization and two graph convolutional neural networks and capturing temporal dynamics via recurrent neural network. Empirical studies using two taxi datasets from different countries verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
In this paper we derive an efficient algorithm to learn the parameters of structured predictors in general graphical models. This algorithm blends the learning and inference tasks, which results in a significant speedup over traditional approaches, such as conditional random fields and structured support vector machines. For this purpose we utilize the structures of the predictors to describe a low dimensional structured prediction task which encourages local consistencies within the different structures while learning the parameters of the model. Convexity of the learning task provides the means to enforce the consistencies between the different parts. The inference-learning blending algorithm that we propose is guaranteed to converge to the optimum of the low dimensional primal and dual programs. Unlike many of the existing approaches, the inference-learning blending allows us to learn efficiently high-order graphical models, over regions of any size, and very large number of parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, while presenting state-of-the-art results in stereo estimation, semantic segmentation, shape reconstruction, and indoor scene understanding.
The emerging field of precision oncology relies on the accurate pinpointing of alterations in the molecular profile of a tumor to provide personalized targeted treatments. Current methodologies in the field commonly include the application of next generation sequencing technologies to a tumor sample, followed by the identification of mutations in the DNA known as somatic variants. The differentiation of these variants from sequencing error poses a classic classification problem, which has traditionally been approached with Bayesian statistics, and more recently with supervised machine learning methods such as neural networks. Although these methods provide greater accuracy, classic neural networks lack the ability to indicate the confidence of a variant call. In this paper, we explore the performance of deep Bayesian neural networks on next generation sequencing data, and their ability to give probability estimates for somatic variant calls. In addition to demonstrating similar performance in comparison to standard neural networks, we show that the resultant output probabilities make these better suited to the disparate and highly-variable sequencing data-sets these models are likely to encounter in the real world. We aim to deliver algorithms to oncologists for which model certainty better reflects accuracy, for improved clinical application. By moving away from point estimates to reliable confidence intervals, we expect the resultant clinical and treatment decisions to be more robust and more informed by the underlying reality of the tumor molecular profile.
Deep learning is revolutionizing predictive healthcare, including recommending medications to patients with complex health conditions. Existing approaches focus on predicting all medications for the current visit, which often overlaps with medications from previous visits. A more clinically relevant task is to identify medication changes. In this paper, we propose a new recurrent residual network, named MICRON, for medication change prediction. MICRON takes the changes in patient health records as input and learns to update a hidden medication vector and the medication set recurrently with a reconstruction design. The medication vector is like the memory cell that encodes longitudinal information of medications. Unlike traditional methods that require the entire patient history for prediction, MICRON has a residual-based inference that allows for sequential updating based only on new patient features (e.g., new diagnoses in the recent visit) more efficiently. We evaluated MICRON on real inpatient and outpatient datasets. MICRON achieves 3.5% and 7.8% relative improvements over the best baseline in F1 score, respectively. MICRON also requires fewer parameters, which significantly reduces the training time to 38.3s per epoch with 1.5x speed-up.
A deep neural network model is a powerful framework for learning representations. Usually, it is used to learn the relation $x to y$ by exploiting the regularities in the input $x$. In structured output prediction problems, $y$ is multi-dimensional and structural relations often exist between the dimensions. The motivation of this work is to learn the output dependencies that may lie in the output data in order to improve the prediction accuracy. Unfortunately, feedforward networks are unable to exploit the relations between the outputs. In order to overcome this issue, we propose in this paper a regularization scheme for training neural networks for these particular tasks using a multi-task framework. Our scheme aims at incorporating the learning of the output representation $y$ in the training process in an unsupervised fashion while learning the supervised mapping function $x to y$. We evaluate our framework on a facial landmark detection problem which is a typical structured output task. We show over two public challenging datasets (LFPW and HELEN) that our regularization scheme improves the generalization of deep neural networks and accelerates their training. The use of unlabeled data and label-only data is also explored, showing an additional improvement of the results. We provide an opensource implementation (https://github.com/sbelharbi/structured-output-ae) of our framework.
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