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Register a new userUnbiased likelihood-free inference of the Hubble constant from light standard sirens
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Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers offer a promising path towards resolution of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, provided their constraints are shown to be free from systematics such as the Malmquist bias. In the traditional Bayesian framework, accounting for selection effects in the likelihood requires calculation of the expected number (or fraction) of detections as a function of the parameters describing the population and cosmology; a potentially costly and/or inaccurate process. This calculation can, however, be bypassed completely by performing the inference in a framework in which the likelihood is never explicitly calculated, but instead fit using forward simulations of the data, which naturally include the selection. This is Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI). Here, we use density-estimation LFI, coupled to neural-network-based data compression, to infer $H_0$ from mock catalogues of binary neutron star mergers, given noisy redshift, distance and peculiar velocity estimates for each object. We demonstrate that LFI yields statistically unbiased estimates of $H_0$ in the presence of selection effects, with precision matching that of sampling the full Bayesian hierarchical model. Marginalizing over the bias increases the $H_0$ uncertainty by only $6%$ for training sets consisting of $O(10^4)$ populations. The resulting LFI framework is applicable to population-level inference problems with selection effects across astrophysics.
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The Hubble constant ($H_0$) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova (SN) distance ladder is in 3-$sigma$ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent $H_0$ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon SN sample yields an $H_0$ posterior near-identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of $sim50$ binary neutron star standard sirens (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates.
In this work we investigate the systematic uncertainties that arise from the calculation of the peculiar velocity when estimating the Hubble constant ($H_0$) from gravitational wave standard sirens. We study the GW170817 event and the estimation of the peculiar velocity of its host galaxy, NGC 4993, when using Gaussian smoothing over nearby galaxies. NGC 4993 being a relatively nearby galaxy, at $sim 40 {rm Mpc}$ away, is subject to a significant effect of peculiar velocities. We demonstrate a direct dependence of the estimated peculiar velocity value on the choice of smoothing scale. We show that when not accounting for this systematic, a bias of $sim 200 {rm km s ^{-1}}$ in the peculiar velocity incurs a bias of $sim 4 {rm km s ^{-1} Mpc^{-1}}$ on the Hubble constant. We formulate a Bayesian model that accounts for the dependence of the peculiar velocity on the smoothing scale and by marginalising over this parameter we remove the need for a choice of smoothing scale. The proposed model yields $H_0 = 68.6 ^{+14.0}_{-8.5}~{rm km s^{-1} Mpc^{-1}}$. We demonstrate that under this model a more robust unbiased estimate of the Hubble constant from nearby GW sources is obtained.
The purpose of this work is to investigate the prospects of using the future standard siren data without redshift measurements to constrain cosmological parameters. With successful detections of gravitational wave (GW) signals an era of GW astronomy has begun. Unlike the electromagnetic domain, GW signals allow direct measurements of luminosity distances to the sources, while their redshifts remain to be measured by identifying electromagnetic counterparts. This leads to significant technical problems for almost all possible BH-BH systems. It is the major obstacle to cosmological applications of GW standard sirens. In this paper, we introduce the general framework of using luminosity distances alone for cosmological inference. The idea is to use the prior knowledge of the redshift probability distribution for coalescing sources from the intrinsic merger rates assessed with population synthesis codes. Then the posterior probability distributions for cosmological parameters can be calculated. We demonstrate the performance of our method on the simulated mock data and show that the luminosity distance measurement would enable an accurate determination of cosmological parameters up to $20%$ uncertainty level. We also find that in order to infer $H_0$ to 1% level with flat $Lambda$CDM model, we need about $10^5$ events.
Quasars have recently been used as an absolute distance indicator, extending the Hubble diagram to high redshift to reveal a deviation from the expansion history predicted for the standard, $Lambda$CDM cosmology. Here we show that the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will efficiently test this claim with standard sirens at high redshift, defined by the coincident gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) observations of the merger of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). Assuming a fiducial $Lambda$CDM cosmology for generating mock standard siren datasets, the evidence for the $Lambda$CDM model with respect to an alternative model inferred from quasar data is investigated. By simulating many realizations of possible future LISA observations, we find that for $50%$ of these realizations (median result) 4 MBHB standard siren measurements will suffice to strongly differentiate between the two models, while 14 standard sirens will yield a similar result in $95%$ of the realizations. In addition, we investigate the measurement precision of cosmological parameters as a function of the number of observed LISA MBHB standard sirens, finding that 15 events will on average achieve a relative precision of 5% for $H_0$, reducing to 3% and 2% with 25 and 40 events, respectively. Our investigation clearly highlights the potential of LISA as a cosmological probe able to accurately map the expansion of the universe at $zgtrsim 2$, and as a tool to cross-check and cross-validate cosmological EM measurements with complementary GW observations.
We propose a novel approach to accurately pin down the systematics due to the peculiar velocities of galaxies in measuring the Hubble constant from nearby galaxies in current and future gravitational-wave (GW) standard-siren experiments. Given the precision that future GW standard-siren experiments aim to achieve, the peculiar velocities of nearby galaxies will be a major source of uncertainty. Unlike the conventional backward reconstruction that requires additional redshift-independent distance indicators to recover the peculiar velocity field, we forwardly model the peculiar velocity field by using a high-fidelity mock galaxy catalog built from high-resolution dark matter only (DMO) N-body simulations with a physically motivated subhalo abundance matching technique without introducing any free parameters. Our mock galaxy catalog can impressively well reproduce the observed spectroscopic redshift space distortions (RSDs) in highly non-linear regimes down to very small scales, which is a robust test of the velocity field of our mock galaxy catalog. Based on this mock galaxy catalog, we accurately, for the first time, measure the peculiar velocity probability distributions for the SDSS main galaxy samples. We find that the systematics induced by the peculiar velocities of SDSS like galaxies on the measured Hubble constant can be reduced to below $1%$($1sigma$) for GW host galaxies with a Hubble flow redshift just above $0.13$, a distance that can be well probed by future GW experiments and galaxy surveys.
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