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We use geospatial data to examine the unprecedented national program currentlyunderway in the United States to distribute and administer vaccines against COVID-19. We quantify the impact of the proposed federal partnership with the companyDollar General to serve as vaccination sites and compare vaccine access with DollarGeneral to the current Federal Retail Pharmacy Partnership Program. Although dollarstores have been viewed with skepticism and controversy in the policy sector, we showthat, relative to the locations of the current federal program, Dollar General stores aredisproportionately likely to be located in Census tracts with high social vulnerability;using these stores as vaccination sites would greatly decrease the distance to vaccinesfor both low-income and minority households. We consider a hypothetical alternativepartnership with Dollar Tree and show that adding these stores to the vaccinationprogram would be similarly valuable, but impact different geographic areas than theDollar General partnership. Adding Dollar General to the current pharmacy partnersgreatly surpasses the goal set by the Biden administration of having 90% of the popu-lation within 5 miles of a vaccine site. We discuss the potential benefits of leveragingthese partnerships for other vaccinations, including against influenza.
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When facing threats from automation, a worker residing in a large Chinese city might not be as lucky as a worker in a large U.S. city, depending on the type of large city in which one resides. Empirical studies found that large U.S. cities exhibit resilience to automation impacts because of the increased occupational and skill specialization. However, in this study, we observe polarized responses in large Chinese cities to automation impacts. The polarization might be attributed to the elaborate master planning of the central government, through which cities are assigned with different industrial goals to achieve globally optimal economic success and, thus, a fast-growing economy. By dividing Chinese cities into two groups based on their administrative levels and premium resources allocated by the central government, we find that Chinese cities follow two distinct industrial development trajectories, one trajectory owning government support leads to a diversified industrial structure and, thus, a diversified job market, and the other leads to specialty cities and, thus, a specialized job market. By revisiting the automation impacts on a polarized job market, we observe a Simpsons paradox through which a larger city of a diversified job market results in greater resilience, whereas larger cities of specialized job markets are more susceptible. These findings inform policy makers to deploy appropriate policies to mitigate the polarized automation impacts.
The Ballast Water Management Convention can decrease the introduction risk of harmful aquatic organisms and pathogens, yet the Convention increases shipping costs and causes subsequent economic impacts. This paper examines whether the Convention generates disproportionate invasion risk reduction results and economic impacts on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Risk reduction is estimated with an invasion risk assessment model based on a higher-order network, and the effects of the regulation on national economies and trade are estimated with an integrated shipping cost and computable general equilibrium modeling framework. Then we use the Lorenz curve to examine if the regulation generates risk or economic inequality among regions. Risk reduction ratios of all regions (except Singapore) are above 99%, which proves the effectiveness of the Convention. The Gini coefficient of 0.66 shows the inequality in risk changes relative to income levels among regions, but risk reductions across all nations vary without particularly high risks for SIDS and LDCs than for large economies. Similarly, we reveal inequality in economic impacts relative to income levels (the Gini coefficient is 0.58), but there is no evidence that SIDS and LDCs are disproportionately impacted compared to more developed regions. Most changes in GDP, real exports, and real imports of studied regions are minor (smaller than 0.1%). However, there are more noteworthy changes for select sectors and trade partners including Togo, Bangladesh, and Dominican Republic, whose exports may decrease for textiles and metal and chemicals. We conclude the Convention decreases biological invasion risk and does not generate disproportionate negative impacts on SIDS and LDCs.
Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income distribution and its relationship with age and identify a stable joint distribution function for age and income within the United Kingdom and the United States. We demonstrate a flexible calibration methodology using panel and population surveys and capture the characteristic differences between the UK and the US populations. The model here presented can be utilised for forecasting income and planning pensions.
Flextime is one of the efficient approaches in travel demand management to reduce peak hour congestion and encourage social distancing in epidemic prevention. Previous literature has developed bi-level models of the work starting time choice considering both labor output and urban mobility. Yet, most analytical studies assume the single trip purpose in peak hours (to work) only and do not consider the household travels (daycare drop-off/pick-up). In fact, as one of the main reasons to adopt flextime, household travel plays an influential role in travelers decision making on work schedule selection. On this account, we incorporate household travels into the work starting time choice model in this study. Both short-run travel behaviours and long-run work start time selection of heterogenous commuters are examined under agglomeration economies. If flextime is not flexible enough, commuters tend to agglomerate in work schedule choice at long-run equilibrium. Further, we analyze optimal schedule choices with two system performance indicators. For total commuting cost, it is found that the rigid school schedule for households may impede the benefits of flextime in commuting cost saving. In terms of total net benefit, while work schedule agglomeration of all commuters leads to the maximum in some cases, the polarized agglomeration of the two heterogenous groups can never achieve the optimum.
Productivity levels and growth are extremely heterogeneous among firms. A vast literature has developed to explain the origins of productivity shocks, their dispersion, evolution and their relationship to the business cycle. We examine in detail the distribution of labor productivity levels and growth, and observe that they exhibit heavy tails. We propose to model these distributions using the four parameter L{e}vy stable distribution, a natural candidate deriving from the generalised Central Limit Theorem. We show that it is a better fit than several standard alternatives, and is remarkably consistent over time, countries and sectors. In all samples considered, the tail parameter is such that the theoretical variance of the distribution is infinite, so that the sample standard deviation increases with sample size. We find a consistent positive skewness, a markedly different behaviour between the left and right tails, and a positive relationship between productivity and size. The distributional approach allows us to test different measures of dispersion and find that productivity dispersion has slightly decreased over the past decade.
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