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Register a new userRevisiting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 9: The Case of Sunspot Observations by W.C. Bond
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Added by
V\\'ictor M. S\\'anchez Carrasco
Publication date
2021
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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William Cranch Bond, director of the Harvard College Observatory in mid-19th century, carried out detailed sunspot observations during the period 1847-1849. We highlight Bond was the observer with the highest daily number of sunspot groups observed in Solar Cycle 9 recording 18 groups on 26 December 1848 according to the current sunspot group database. However, we have detected significant mistakes in these counts due to the use of sunspot position tables instead of solar drawings. Therefore, we have revisited the sunspot observations made by Bond, establishing a new group counting. Our new counts of the sunspot groups from Bonds drawings indicate that solar activity was previously overestimated. Moreover, after this new counting, Bond would not be the astronomer who recorded the highest daily group number for Solar Cycle 9 but Schmidt with 16 groups on 14 February 1849. We have also indicated the new highest annual group numbers recorded by any observer for the period 1847-1849 in order to correct those values applied in the brightest star method, which is used as a rough indicator of the solar activity level. Furthermore, a comparison between Bonds sunspot records and the sunspot observations made by Schwabe and Wolf is shown. We conclude that the statistics of Wolf and Bond are similar regarding to the group count. Additionally, Schwabe was able to observe smaller groups than Bond.
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The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic variation in number, first noted 175 years ago, stimulates community-wide interest to this day. A large number of techniques are able to explain the temporal landmarks, (geometric) shape, and amplitude of sunspot cycles, however forecasting these features accurately in advance remains elusive. Recent observationally-motivated studies have illustrated a relationship between the Suns 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle and the production of the sunspot cycle landmarks and patterns, but not the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. Using (discrete) Hilbert transforms on more than 270 years of (monthly) sunspot numbers we robustly identify the so-called termination events that mark the end of the previous 11-yr sunspot cycle, the enhancement/acceleration of the present cycle, and the end of 22-yr magnetic activity cycles. Using these we extract a relationship between the temporal spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles. Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that Sunspot Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.
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