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Register a new userCosmic evolution of the H2 mass density and the epoch of molecular gas
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We present new empirical constraints on the evolution of $rho_{rm H_2}$, the cosmological mass density of molecular hydrogen, back to $zapprox2.5$. We employ a statistical approach measuring the average observed $850mu{rm m}$ flux density of near-infrared selected galaxies as a function of redshift. The redshift range considered corresponds to a span where the $850mu{rm m}$ band probes the Rayleigh-Jeans tail of thermal dust emission in the rest-frame, and can therefore be used as an estimate of the mass of the interstellar medium (ISM). Our sample comprises of ${approx}150,000$ galaxies in the UKIDSS-UDS field with near-infrared magnitudes $K_{rm AB}leq25$ mag and photometric redshifts with corresponding probability distribution functions derived from deep 12-band photometry. With a sample approximately 2 orders of magnitude larger than in previous works we significantly reduce statistical uncertainties on $rho_{rm H_2}$ to $zapprox2.5$. Our measurements are in broad agreement with recent direct estimates from blank field molecular gas surveys, finding that the epoch of molecular gas coincides with the peak epoch of star formation with $rho_{rm H_2}approx2times10^7,{rm M_odot},{rm Mpc^{-3}}$ at $zapprox2$. We demonstrate that $rho_{rm H_2}$ can be broadly modelled by inverting the star-formation rate density with a fixed or weakly evolving star-formation efficiency. This constant efficiency model shows a similar evolution to our statistically derived $rho_{rm H_2}$, indicating that the dominant factor driving the peak star formation history at $zapprox2$ is a larger supply of molecular gas in galaxies rather than a significant evolution of the star-formation rate efficiency within individual galaxies.
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One of the last missing pieces in the puzzle of galaxy formation and evolution through cosmic history is a detailed picture of the role of the cold gas supply in the star-formation process. Cold gas is the fuel for star formation, and thus regulates the buildup of stellar mass, both through the amount of material present through a galaxys gas mass fraction, and through the efficiency at which it is converted to stars. Over the last decade, important progress has been made in understanding the relative importance of these two factors along with the role of feedback, and the first measurements of the volume density of cold gas out to redshift 4, (the cold gas history of the Universe) has been obtained. To match the precision of measurements of the star formation and black-hole accretion histories over the coming decades, a two orders of magnitude improvement in molecular line survey speeds is required compared to what is possible with current facilities. Possible pathways towards such large gains include significant upgrades to current facilities like ALMA by 2030 (and beyond), and eventually the construction of a new generation of radio-to-millimeter wavelength facilities, such as the next generation Very Large Array (ngVLA) concept.
In this paper we use ASPECS, the ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the {em Hubble} Ultra Deep Field (UDF) in band 3 and band 6, to place blind constraints on the CO luminosity function and the evolution of the cosmic molecular gas density as a function of redshift up to $zsim 4.5$. This study is based on galaxies that have been solely selected through their CO emission and not through any other property. In all of the redshift bins the ASPECS measurements reach the predicted `knee of the CO luminosity function (around $5times10^{9}$ K km/s pc$^2$). We find clear evidence of an evolution in the CO luminosity function with respect to $zsim 0$, with more CO luminous galaxies present at $zsim 2$. The observed galaxies at $zsim 2$ also appear more gas-rich than predicted by recent semi-analytical models. The comoving cosmic molecular gas density within galaxies as a function of redshift shows a factor 3-10 drop from $z sim 2$ to $z sim 0$ (with significant error bars), and possibly a decline at $z>3$. This trend is similar to the observed evolution of the cosmic star formation rate density. The latter therefore appears to be at least partly driven by the increased availability of molecular gas reservoirs at the peak of cosmic star formation ($zsim2$).
We study the evolution of the cold gas content of galaxies by splitting the interstellar medium into its atomic and molecular hydrogen components, using the galaxy formation model GALFORM in the LCDM framework. We calculate the molecular-to-atomic hydrogen mass ratio, H2/HI, in each galaxy using two different approaches; the pressure-based empirical relation of Blitz & Rosolowsky and the theoretical model of Krumholz, McKeee & Tumlinson, and apply them to consistently calculate the star formation rates of galaxies. We find that the model based on the Blitz & Rosolowsky law predicts an HI mass function, CO(1-0) luminosity function, correlations between the H2/HI ratio and stellar and cold gas mass, and infrared-CO luminosity relation in good agreement with local and high redshift observations. The HI mass function evolves weakly with redshift, with the number density of high mass galaxies decreasing with increasing redshift. In the case of the H2 mass function, the number density of massive galaxies increases strongly from z=0 to z=2, followed by weak evolution up to z=4. We also find that the H2/HI ratio of galaxies is strongly dependent on stellar and cold gas mass, and also on redshift. The slopes of the correlations between H2/HI and stellar and cold gas mass hardly evolve, but the normalisation increases by up to two orders of magnitude from z=0-8. The strong evolution in the H2 mass function and the H2/HI ratio is primarily due to the evolution in the sizes of galaxies and secondarily, in the gas fractions. The predicted cosmic density evolution of HI agrees with the observed evolution inferred from DLAs, and is dominated by low/intermediate mass halos. We find that previous theoretical studies have largely overestimated the redshift evolution of the global H2/HI ratio due to limited resolution. We predict a maximum of rho_H2/rho_HI~1.2 at z~3.5.
[Abridged] Do some environments favor efficient conversion of molecular gas into stars? To answer this, we need to be able to estimate the H2 mass. Traditionally, this is done using CO and a few assumptions but the Herschel observations in the FIR make it possible to estimate the molecular gas mass independently of CO. Previous attempts to derive gas masses from dust emission suffered from biases. Generally, dust surface densities, HI column densities, and CO intensities are used to derive a gas-to-dust ratio (GDR) and the local CO intensity to H2 column density ratio (XCO), sometimes allowing for an additional CO-dark gas component (Kdark). We tested earlier methods, revealing degeneracies among the parameters, and then used a Bayesian formalism to derive the most likely values for each of the parameters mentioned above as a function of position in the nearby low metallicity spiral galaxy M33. The data are from the IRAM 30m CO(2-1) line, high-resolution HI and Herschel dust continuum observations. Solving for GDR, XCO, and Kdark in macro pixels 500 pc in size, we find that (i) allowing for CO-dark gas significantly improves fits; (ii) Kdark decreases with galactocentric distance; (iii) GDR is slightly higher than initially expected and increases with galactocentric distance; (iv) the total amount of dark gas closely follows the radially decreasing CO emission, as might be expected if the dark gas is H2 where CO is photodissociated. The total amount of H2, including dark gas, yields an average XCO of twice the galactic value of 2e20 cm^-2/(K km/s), 55% of this traced directly through CO. The rather constant fraction of dark gas suggests that there is no large population of diffuse H2 clouds (unrelated to GMCs) without CO emission. Unlike in large spirals, we detect no systematic radial trend in XCO, possibly linked to the absence of a radial decrease in CO line ratios.
We are just starting to understand the physical processes driving the dramatic change in cosmic star-formation rate between $zsim 2$ and the present day. A quantity directly linked to star formation is the molecular gas density, which should be measured through independent methods to explore variations due to cosmic variance and systematic uncertainties. We use intervening CO absorption lines in the spectra of mm-bright background sources to provide a census of the molecular gas mass density of the Universe. The data used in this work are taken from ALMACAL, a wide and deep survey utilizing the ALMA calibrator archive. While we report multiple Galactic absorption lines and one intrinsic absorber, no extragalactic intervening molecular absorbers are detected. However, thanks to the large redshift path surveyed ($Delta z=182$), we provide constraints on the molecular column density distribution function beyond $zsim 0$. In addition, we probe column densities of N(H$_2$) > 10$^{16}$ atoms~cm$^{-2}$, five orders of magnitude lower than in previous studies. We use the cosmological hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG to show that our upper limits of $rho ({rm H}_2)lesssim 10^{8.3} text{M}_{odot} text{Mpc}^{-3}$ at $0 < z leq 1.7$ already provide new constraints on current theoretical predictions of the cold molecular phase of the gas. These results are in agreement with recent CO emission-line surveys and are complementary to those studies. The combined constraints indicate that the present decrease of the cosmic star-formation rate history is consistent with an increasing depletion of molecular gas in galaxies compared to $zsim 2$.
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