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Register a new userForecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare
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The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that flare, it is not directly clear how long those blackouts can persist. Using a random forest regression model trained on data taken from X-ray light curves, we have developed a direct forecasting method that predicts how long the event will remain above background levels. We test this on a large collection of flares observed with GOES-15, and show that it generally outperforms simple linear regression. This forecast is computationally light enough to be performed in real time, allowing for the prediction to be made during the course of a flare.
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A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of todays operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human forecaster in the loop; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies.
Solar flares significantly impact the conditions of the Earths ionosphere. In particular, the sudden increase in X-ray flux during a flare penetrates down to the lowest-lying D-region and dominates ionization at these altitudes (60-100 km). Measurements of very low frequency (VLF: 3-30kHz) radio waves that reflect at D-region altitudes provide a unique remote-sensing probe to investigate the D-region response to solar flare emissions. Here, using a combination of VLF amplitude measurements at 24kHz together with X-ray observations from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) X-ray sensor, we present a large-scale statistical study of 334 solar flare events and their impacts on the D-region over the past solar cycle. Focusing on both GOES broadband X-ray channels, we investigate how the flare peak fluxes and position on the solar disk dictate an ionospheric response and extend this to investigate the characteristic time delay between incident X-ray flux and the D-region response. We show that the VLF amplitude linearly correlates with both the 1-8 A and 0.5-4 A channels, with correlation coefficients of 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Unlike higher altitude ionospheric regions for which the location of the flare on the solar disk affects the ionospheric response, we find that the D-region response to solar flares does not depend on the flare location. By comparing the time delays between the peak X-ray fluxes in both GOES channels and VLF amplitudes, we find that there is an important difference between the D-region response and the X-ray spectral band. We also demonstrate for several flare events that show a negative time delay, the peak VLF amplitude matches with the impulsive 25-50 keV hard X-ray fluxes measured by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI).
Impulsive solar energetic particle events are widely believed to be due to the prompt escape into the interplanetary medium of flare-accelerated particles produced by solar eruptive events. According to the standard model for such events, however, particles accelerated by the flare reconnection should remain trapped in the flux rope comprising the coronal mass ejection. The particles should reach the Earth only much later, along with the bulk ejecta. To resolve this paradox, we have extended our previous axisymmetric model for the escape of flare-accelerated particles to fully three-dimensional (3D) geometries. We report the results of magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a coronal system that consists of a bipolar active region embedded in a background global dipole field structured by solar wind. Our simulations show that multiple magnetic reconnection episodes occur prior to and during the CME eruption and its interplanetary propagation. In addition to the episodes that build up the flux rope, reconnection between the open field and the CME couples the closed corona to the open interplanetary field. Flare-accelerated particles initially trapped in the CME thereby gain access to the open interplanetary field along a trail blazed by magnetic reconnection. A key difference between these 3D results and our previous calculations is that the interchange reconnection allows accelerated particles to escape from deep within the CME flux-rope. We estimate the spatial extent of the particle-escape channels. The relative timings between flare acceleration and release of the energetic particles through CME/open-field coupling are also determined. All our results compare favourably with observations.
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al, 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to - for the first time - directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the no skill level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and todays performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the standard eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $gamma$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed.
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