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We propose a novel supervised multi-class/single-label classifier that maps training data onto a linearly separable latent space with a simplex-like geometry. This approach allows us to transform the classification problem into a well-defined regression problem. For its solution we can choose suitable distance metrics in feature space and regression models predicting latent space coordinates. A benchmark on various artificial and real-world data sets is used to demonstrate the calibration qualities and prediction performance of our classifier.
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Adversarially robust classification seeks a classifier that is insensitive to adversarial perturbations of test patterns. This problem is often formulated via a minimax objective, where the target loss is the worst-case value of the 0-1 loss subject to a bound on the size of perturbation. Recent work has proposed convex surrogates for the adversarial 0-1 loss, in an effort to make optimization more tractable. A primary question is that of consistency, that is, whether minimization of the surrogate risk implies minimization of the adversarial 0-1 risk. In this work, we analyze this question through the lens of calibration, which is a pointwise notion of consistency. We show that no convex surrogate loss is calibrated with respect to the adversarial 0-1 loss when restricted to the class of linear models. We further introduce a class of nonconvex losses and offer necessary and sufficient conditions for losses in this class to be calibrated. We also show that if the underlying distribution satisfies Massarts noise condition, convex losses can also be calibrated in the adversarial setting.
We propose Dirichlet Simplex Nest, a class of probabilistic models suitable for a variety of data types, and develop fast and provably accurate inference algorithms by accounting for the models convex geometry and low dimensional simplicial structure. By exploiting the connection to Voronoi tessellation and properties of Dirichlet distribution, the proposed inference algorithm is shown to achieve consistency and strong error bound guarantees on a range of model settings and data distributions. The effectiveness of our model and the learning algorithm is demonstrated by simulations and by analyses of text and financial data.
Ongoing developments in neural network models are continually advancing the state of the art in terms of system accuracy. However, the predicted labels should not be regarded as the only core output; also important is a well-calibrated estimate of the prediction uncertainty. Such estimates and their calibration are critical in many practical applications. Despite their obvious aforementioned advantage in relation to accuracy, contemporary neural networks can, generally, be regarded as poorly calibrated and as such do not produce reliable output probability estimates. Further, while post-processing calibration solutions can be found in the relevant literature, these tend to be for systems performing classification. In this regard, we herein present two novel methods for acquiring calibrated predictions intervals for neural network regressors: empirical calibration and temperature scaling. In experiments using different regression tasks from the audio and computer vision domains, we find that both our proposed methods are indeed capable of producing calibrated prediction intervals for neural network regressors with any desired confidence level, a finding that is consistent across all datasets and neural network architectures we experimented with. In addition, we derive an additional practical recommendation for producing more accurate calibrated prediction intervals. We release the source code implementing our proposed methods for computing calibrated predicted intervals. The code for computing calibrated predicted intervals is publicly available.
Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application, and therefore cannot guarantee optimal predictions for a given task. To make more suitable task-specific approximations, we introduce a new loss-calibrated evidence lower bound for Bayesian neural networks in the context of supervised learning, informed by Bayesian decision theory. By introducing a lower bound that depends on a utility function, we ensure that our approximation achieves higher utility than traditional methods for applications that have asymmetric utility functions. Furthermore, in using dropout inference, we highlight that our new objective is identical to that of standard dropout neural networks, with an additional utility-dependent penalty term. We demonstrate our new loss-calibrated model with an illustrative medical example and a restricted model capacity experiment, and highlight failure modes of the comparable weighted cross entropy approach. Lastly, we demonstrate the scalability of our method to real world applications with per-pixel semantic segmentation on an autonomous driving data set.
In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions generated by a deterministic model that outputs a continuous variable. This problem applies to any state-of-the-art physics or engineering models that have a computational cost that does not readily allow to run ensembles and to estimate the uncertainty associated to single-point predictions. Essentially, we devise a method to easily transform a deterministic prediction into a probabilistic one. We show that for doing so, one has to compromise between the accuracy and the reliability (calibration) of such a probabilistic model. Hence, we introduce a cost function that encodes their trade-off. We use the Continuous Rank Probability Score to measure accuracy and we derive an analytic formula for the reliability, in the case of forecasts of continuous scalar variables expressed in terms of Gaussian distributions. The new Accuracy-Reliability cost function is then used to estimate the input-dependent variance, given a black-box mean function, by solving a two-objective optimization problem. The simple philosophy behind this strategy is that predictions based on the estimated variances should not only be accurate, but also reliable (i.e. statistical consistent with observations). Conversely, early works based on the minimization of classical cost functions, such as the negative log probability density, cannot simultaneously enforce both accuracy and reliability. We show several examples both with synthetic data, where the underlying hidden noise can accurately be recovered, and with large real-world datasets.
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