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Register a new userKMT-2019-BLG-0371 and the Limits of Bayesian Analysis
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We show that the perturbation at the peak of the light curve of microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-0371 is explained by a model with a mass ratio between the host star and planet of $q sim 0.08$. Due to the short event duration ($t_{rm E} sim 6.5 $ days), the secondary object in this system could potentially be a massive giant planet. A Bayesian analysis shows that the system most likely consists of a host star with a mass $M_{rm h} = 0.09^{+0.14}_{-0.05}M_{odot}$ and a massive giant planet with a mass $M_{rm p} = 7.70^{+11.34}_{-3.90}M_{rm Jup}$. However, the interpretation of the secondary as a planet (i.e., as having $M_{rm p} < 13 M_{rm Jup}$) rests entirely on the Bayesian analysis. Motivated by this event, we conduct an investigation to determine which constraints meaningfully affect Bayesian analyses for microlensing events. We find that the masses inferred from such a Bayesian analysis are determined almost entirely by the measured value of $theta_{rm E}$ and are relatively insensitive to other factors such as the direction of the event $(ell, b)$, the lens-source relative proper motion $mu_{rm rel}$, or the specific Galactic model prior.
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We report the discovery of a cold planet with a very low planet/host mass ratio of $q=(4.09pm0.27) times 10^{-5}$, which is similar to the ratio of Uranus/Sun ($q=4.37 times 10^{-5}$) in the Solar system. The Bayesian estimates for the host mass, planet mass, system distance, and planet-host projected separation are $M_{rm host}=0.76pm 0.40 M_odot$, $M_{rm planet}=10.3pm 5.5 M_oplus$, $D_{rm L} = 3.3pm1.3,{rm kpc}$, and $a_perp = 3.3pm 1.4,{rm au}$, respectively. The consistency of the color and brightness expected from the estimated lens mass and distance with those of the blend suggests the possibility that the most blended light comes from the planet host, and this hypothesis can be established if high resolution images are taken during the next (2020) bulge season. We discuss the importance of conducting optimized photometry and aggressive follow-up observations for moderately or very high magnification events to maximize the detection rate of planets with very low mass ratios.
We investigate the gravitational microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1715, of which light curve shows two short-term anomalies from a caustic-crossing binary-lensing light curve: one with a large deviation and the other with a small deviation. We identify five pairs of solutions, in which the anomalies are explained by adding an extra lens or source component in addition to the base binary-lens model. We resolve the degeneracies by applying a method, in which the measured flux ratio between the first and second source stars is compared with the flux ratio deduced from the ratio of the source radii. Applying this method leaves a single pair of viable solutions, in both of which the major anomaly is generated by a planetary-mass third body of the lens, and the minor anomaly is generated by a faint second source. A Bayesian analysis indicates that the lens comprises three masses: a planet-mass object with $sim 2.6~M_{rm J}$ and binary stars of K and M dwarfs lying in the galactic disk. We point out the possibility that the lens is the blend, and this can be verified by conducting high-resolution followup imaging for the resolution of the lens from the source.
We present the analysis of a very high-magnification ($Asim 900$) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio $qsim 2times 10^{-3}$ improves the fits by $Deltachi^2=181.8$, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with $Deltachi^2=16.0$ and $13.5$ for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of $M_{rm host}=0.31^{+0.37}_{-0.17}~M_odot$ and that the planetary system is located at a distance of $D_{rm L}=7.04^{+1.10}_{-1.33}~{rm kpc}$ toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is $M_{rm p}=0.64^{+0.76}_{-0.35}~M_{rm J}$. The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by followup observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive followup observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.
We investigate the microlensing event KMT-2021-BLG-0322, for which the light curve exhibits three distinctive sets of caustic-crossing features. It is found that the overall features of the light curve are approximately described by a binary-lens (2L1S) model, but the model leaves substantial residuals. We test various interpretations with the aim of explaining the residuals. We find that the residuals can be explained either by considering a nonrectilinear lens-source motion caused by the microlens-parallax and lens-orbital effects or by adding a low-mass companion to the binary lens (3L1S model). The degeneracy between the higher-order 2L1S model and the 3L1S model is very severe, making it difficult to single out a correct solution based on the photometric data. This degeneracy was known before for two previous events (MACHO-97-BLG-41 and OGLE-2013-BLG-0723), which led to the false detections of planets in binary systems, and thus the identification of the degeneracy for KMT-2021-BLG-0322 illustrates that the degeneracy can be not only common but also very severe, emphasizing the need to check both interpretations of deviations from 2L1S models. From the Bayesian analysis conducted with the measured lensing observables of the event timescale, angular Einstein radius, and microlens parallax, it was estimated that the binary lens components have masses $(M_1, M_2) =(0.62^{+0.25}_{-0.26}~M_odot,0.07^{+0.03}_{-0.03}~M_odot)$, for both 2L1S and 3L1S solutions, and the mass of the tertiary lens component according to the 3L1S solution is $M_3=6.40^{+2.64}_{-2.78}~M_{rm J}$.
We aim to find missing microlensing planets hidden in the unanalyzed lensing events of previous survey data. For this purpose, we conduct a systematic inspection of high-magnification microlensing events, with peak magnifications $A_{rm peak}gtrsim 30$, in the data collected from high-cadence surveys in and before the 2018 season. From this investigation, we identify an anomaly in the lensing light curve of the event KMT-2018-BLG-1025. The analysis of the light curve indicates that the anomaly is caused by a very low mass-ratio companion to the lens. We identify three degenerate solutions, in which the ambiguity between a pair of solutions (solutions B) is caused by the previously known close--wide degeneracy, and the degeneracy between these and the other solution (solution A) is a new type that has not been reported before. The estimated mass ratio between the planet and host is $qsim 0.8times 10^{-4}$ for the solution A and $qsim 1.6times 10^{-4}$ for the solutions B. From the Bayesian analysis conducted with measured observables, we estimate that the masses of the planet and host and the distance to the lens are $(M_{rm p}, M_{rm h}, D_{rm L})sim (6.1~M_oplus, 0.22~M_odot, 6.7~{rm kpc})$ for the solution A and $sim (4.4~M_oplus, 0.08~M_odot, 7.5~{rm kpc})$ for the solutions B. The planet mass is in the category of a super-Earth regardless of the solutions, making the planet the eleventh super-Earth planet, with masses lying between those of Earth and the Solar systems ice giants, discovered by microlensing.
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