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Register a new userWhen are LIGO/Virgos Big Black-Hole Mergers?
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We study the evolution of the binary black hole (BBH) mass distribution across cosmic time. The second gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-2) from LIGO/Virgo contains BBH events out to redshifts $z sim 1$, with component masses in the range $sim5$--$80,M_odot$. In this catalog, the biggest black holes, with $m_1 gtrsim 45,M_odot$, are only found at the highest redshifts, $z gtrsim 0.4$. We ask whether the absence of high-mass BBH observations at low redshift indicates that the astrophysical BBH mass distribution evolves: the biggest BBHs only merge at high redshift, and cease merging at low redshift. Alternatively, this feature might be explained by gravitational-wave selection effects. Modeling the BBH primary mass spectrum as a power law with a sharp maximum mass cutoff (Truncated model), we find that the cutoff increases with redshift ($> 99.9%$ credibility). An abrupt cutoff in the mass spectrum is expected from (pulsational) pair instability supernova simulations; however, GWTC-2 is only consistent with a Truncated mass model if the location of the cutoff increases from $45^{+13}_{-5},M_odot$ at $z < 0.4$ to $80^{+16}_{-13},M_odot$ at $z > 0.4$. Alternatively, if the primary mass spectrum has a break in the power law (Broken power law) at ${38^{+15}_{-8},M_odot}$, rather than a sharp cutoff, the data are consistent with a non-evolving mass distribution. In this case, the overall rate of mergers, at all masses, increases with increasing redshift. Future observations will confidently distinguish between a sharp maximum mass cutoff that evolves with redshift and a non-evolving mass distribution with a gradual taper, such as a Broken power law. After $sim 100$ BBH merger observations, a continued absence of high-mass, low-redshift events would provide a clear signature that the mass distribution evolves with redshift.
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Fermi-Gamma-ray Burst Monitor observed a 1 s long gamma-ray signal (GW150914-GBM) starting 0.4 s after the first gravitational wave detection from the binary black hole merger GW150914. GW150914-GBM is consistent with a short gamma-ray burst origin; however, no unambiguous claims can be made as to the physical association of the two signals due to a combination of low gamma-ray flux and unfavorable location for Fermi-GBM. Here we answer the following question: if GW150914 and GW150914-GBM were associated, how many LIGO-Virgo binary black hole mergers would Fermi-GBM have to follow up to detect a second source? To answer this question, we perform simulated observations of binary black hole mergers with LIGO-Virgo and adopt different scenarios for gamma-ray emission from the literature. We calculate the ratio of simulated binary black hole mergers detected by LIGO-Virgo to the number of gamma-ray counterpart detections by Fermi-GBM, BBH-to-GRB ratio. A large majority of the models considered here predict a BBH-to-GRB ratio in the range of 5 to 20, but for optimistic cases can be as low as 2 or for pessimistic assumptions as high as 700. Hence we expect that the third observing run, with its high rate of binary black hole detections and assuming the absence of a joint detection, will provide strong constraints on the presented models.
A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 d around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false alarm rate (FAR) of $< 4.9 times 10^{-6} , mathrm{yr}^{-1}$, yielding a $p$-value for GW150914 of $< 2 times 10^{-7}$. Parameter estimation followup on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses $(m_1, m_2) = left(36^{+5}_{-4},29^{+4}_{-4}right) , M_odot$ at redshift $z = 0.09^{+0.03}_{-0.04}$ (median and 90% credible range). Here we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the Universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between $2$--$53 , mathrm{Gpc}^{-3} mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from $13$--$600 , mathrm{Gpc}^{-3} mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range $2$--$600 , mathrm{Gpc}^{-3} mathrm{yr}^{-1}$.
We study the population properties of merging binary black holes in the second LIGO--Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog assuming they were all formed dynamically in gravitationally bound clusters. Using a phenomenological population model, we infer the mass and spin distribution of first-generation black holes, while self-consistently accounting for hierarchical mergers. Considering a range of cluster masses, we see compelling evidence for hierarchical mergers in clusters with escape velocities $gtrsim 100~mathrm{km,s^{-1}}$. For our most probable cluster mass, we find that the catalog contains at least one second-generation merger with $99%$ credibility. We find that the hierarchical model is preferred over an alternative model with no hierarchical mergers (Bayes factor $mathcal{B} > 1400$) and that GW190521 is favored to contain two second-generation black holes with odds $mathcal{O}>700$, and GW190519, GW190602, GW190620, and GW190706 are mixed-generation binaries with $mathcal{O} > 10$. However, our results depend strongly on the cluster escape velocity, with more modest evidence for hierarchical mergers when the escape velocity is $lesssim 100~mathrm{km,s^{-1}}$. Assuming that all binary black holes are formed dynamically in globular clusters with escape velocities on the order of tens of $mathrm{km,s^{-1}}$, GW190519 and GW190521 are favored to include a second-generation black hole with odds $mathcal{O}>1$. In this case, we find that $99%$ of black holes from the inferred total population have masses that are less than $49,M_{odot}$, and that this constraint is robust to our choice of prior on the maximum black hole mass.
We derive the first constraints on the time delay distribution of binary black hole (BBH) mergers using the LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog GWTC-2. Assuming that the progenitor formation rate follows the star formation rate (SFR), the data favor that $43$--$100%$ of mergers have delay times $<4.5$ Gyr (90% credibility). Adopting a model for the metallicity evolution, we derive joint constraints for the metallicity-dependence of the BBH formation efficiency and the distribution of time delays between formation and merger. Short time delays are favored regardless of the assumed metallicity dependence, although the preference for short delays weakens as we consider stricter low-metallicity thresholds for BBH formation. For a $p(tau) propto tau^{-1}$ time delay distribution and a progenitor formation rate that follows the SFR without metallicity dependence, we find that $tau_mathrm{min}<2.2$ Gyr, whereas considering only the low-metallicity $Z < 0.3,Z_odot$ SFR, $tau_mathrm{min} < 3.0$ Gyr (90% credibility). Alternatively, if we assume long time delays, the progenitor formation rate must peak at higher redshifts than the SFR. For example, for a $p(tau) propto tau^{-1}$ time delay distribution with $tau_mathrm{min} = 4$ Gyr, the inferred progenitor rate peaks at $z > 3.9$ (90% credibility). Finally, we explore whether the inferred formation rate and time delay distribution vary with BBH mass.
We perform a statistical inference of the astrophysical population of binary black hole (BBH) mergers observed during the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, including events reported in the GWTC-1 and IAS catalogs. We derive a novel formalism to fully and consistently account for events of arbitrary significance. We carry out a software injection campaign to obtain a set of mock astrophysical events subject to our selection effects, and use the search background to compute the astrophysical probabilities $p_{rm astro}$ of candidate events for several phenomenological models of the BBH population. We emphasize that the values of $p_{rm astro}$ depend on both the astrophysical and background models. Finally, we combine the information from individual events to infer the rate, spin, mass, mass-ratio and redshift distributions of the mergers. The existing population does not discriminate between random spins with a spread in the effective spin parameter, and a small but nonzero fraction of events from tidally-torqued stellar progenitors. The mass distribution is consistent with one having a cutoff at $m_{rm max} = 41^{+10}_{-5},rm M_odot$, while the mass ratio favors equal masses; the mean mass ratio $bar q> 0.67$. The rate shows no significant evolution with redshift. We show that the merger rate restricted to BBHs with a primary mass between 20 and $30, rm M_odot$, and a mass ratio $q > 0.5$, and at $z sim 0.2$, is 1.5 to $5.3,{rm Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}}$ (90% c.l.); these bounds are model independent and a factor of $sim 3$ tighter than that on the local rate of all BBH mergers, and hence are a robust constraint on all progenitor models. Including the events in our catalog increases the Fisher information about the BBH population by $sim 47%$, and tightens the constraints on population parameters.
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