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Register a new userPredicting Forest Fire Using Remote Sensing Data And Machine Learning
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Added by
Suwei Yang
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Over the last few decades, deforestation and climate change have caused increasing number of forest fires. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia has been the most affected country by tropical peatland forest fires. These fires have a significant impact on the climate resulting in extensive health, social and economic issues. Existing forest fire prediction systems, such as the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, are based on handcrafted features and require installation and maintenance of expensive instruments on the ground, which can be a challenge for developing countries such as Indonesia. We propose a novel, cost-effective, machine-learning based approach that uses remote sensing data to predict forest fires in Indonesia. Our prediction model achieves more than 0.81 area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, performing significantly better than the baseline approach which never exceeds 0.70 area under ROC curve on the same tasks. Our models performance remained above 0.81 area under ROC curve even when evaluated with reduced data. The results support our claim that machine-learning based approaches can lead to reliable and cost-effective forest fire prediction systems.
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Identifying regions that have high likelihood for wildfires is a key component of land and forestry management and disaster preparedness. We create a data set by aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data and historical fire records to predict wildfires. This prediction problem is framed as three machine learning tasks. Results are compared and analyzed for four different deep learning models to estimate wildfire likelihood. The results demonstrate that deep learning models can successfully identify areas of high fire likelihood using aggregated data about vegetation, weather, and topography with an AUC of 83%.
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Many current deep learning approaches make extensive use of backbone networks pre-trained on large datasets like ImageNet, which are then fine-tuned to perform a certain task. In remote sensing, the lack of comparable large annotated datasets and the wide diversity of sensing platforms impedes similar developments. In order to contribute towards the availability of pre-trained backbone networks in remote sensing, we devise a self-supervised approach for pre-training deep neural networks. By exploiting the correspondence between geo-tagged audio recordings and remote sensing imagery, this is done in a completely label-free manner, eliminating the need for laborious manual annotation. For this purpose, we introduce the SoundingEarth dataset, which consists of co-located aerial imagery and audio samples all around the world. Using this dataset, we then pre-train ResNet models to map samples from both modalities into a common embedding space, which encourages the models to understand key properties of a scene that influence both visual and auditory appearance. To validate the usefulness of the proposed approach, we evaluate the transfer learning performance of pre-trained weights obtained against weights obtained through other means. By fine-tuning the models on a number of commonly used remote sensing datasets, we show that our approach outperforms existing pre-training strategies for remote sensing imagery. The dataset, code and pre-trained model weights will be available at https://github.com/khdlr/SoundingEarth.
Automatically finding good and general remote sensing representations allows to perform transfer learning on a wide range of applications - improving the accuracy and reducing the required number of training samples. This paper investigates development of generic remote sensing representations, and explores which characteristics are important for a dataset to be a good source for representation learning. For this analysis, five diverse remote sensing datasets are selected and used for both, disjoint upstream representation learning and downstream model training and evaluation. A common evaluation protocol is used to establish baselines for these datasets that achieve state-of-the-art performance. As the results indicate, especially with a low number of available training samples a significant performance enhancement can be observed when including additionally in-domain data in comparison to training models from scratch or fine-tuning only on ImageNet (up to 11% and 40%, respectively, at 100 training samples). All datasets and pretrained representation models are published online.
We investigate active learning in the context of deep neural network models for change detection and map updating. Active learning is a natural choice for a number of remote sensing tasks, including the detection of local surface changes: changes are on the one hand rare and on the other hand their appearance is varied and diffuse, making it hard to collect a representative training set in advance. In the active learning setting, one starts from a minimal set of training examples and progressively chooses informative samples that are annotated by a user and added to the training set. Hence, a core component of an active learning system is a mechanism to estimate model uncertainty, which is then used to pick uncertain, informative samples. We study different mechanisms to capture and quantify this uncertainty when working with deep networks, based on the variance or entropy across explicit or implicit model ensembles. We show that active learning successfully finds highly informative samples and automatically balances the training distribution, and reaches the same performance as a model supervised with a large, pre-annotated training set, with $approx$99% fewer annotated samples.
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