No Arabic abstract
This paper investigates the heterogeneous impacts of either Global or Local Investor Sentiments on stock returns. We study 10 industry sectors through the lens of 6 (so called) emerging countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey, over the 2000 to 2014 period. Using a panel data framework, our study sheds light on a significant effect of Local Investor Sentiments on expected returns for basic materials, consumer goods, industrial, and financial industries. Moreover, our results suggest that from Global Investor Sentiments alone, one cannot predict expected stock returns in these markets.
Since the 1980s, technology business incubators (TBIs), which focus on accelerating businesses through resource sharing, knowledge agglomeration, and technology innovation, have become a booming industry. As such, research on TBIs has gained international attention, most notably in the United States, Europe, Japan, and China. The present study proposes an entrepreneurial ecosystem framework with four key components, i.e., people, technology, capital, and infrastructure, to investigate which factors have an impact on the performance of TBIs. We also empirically examine this framework based on unique, three-year panel survey data from 857 national TBIs across China. We implemented factor analysis and panel regression models on dozens of variables from 857 national TBIs between 2015 and 2017 in all major cities in China and found that a number of factors associated with people, technology, capital, and infrastructure components have various statistically significant impacts on the performance of TBIs at either national model or regional models.
To explore the relationship between corporate green technological innovation and the risk of stock price crashes, we first analyzed the data of listed companies in China from 2008 to 2018 and constructed indicators for the quantity and quality of corporate green technology innovation. The study found that the quantity of green technology innovation is not related to the risk of stock price crashes, while the quality of green technology innovation is negatively related to the risk of stock price crashes. Second, we studied the impact of corporate ownership on the relationship between the quality of green technological innovation and the risk of stock price crashes and found that in nonstate-owned enterprises, the quality of green technological innovation is negatively correlated with the risk of a stock price collapse, while in state-owned enterprises, the quality of green technological innovation and the risk of a stock price collapse are positive and not significant. Furthermore, we studied the mediating effect of the number of negative news reports in the media of listed companies on the relationship between the quality of corporate green technology innovation and the stock price crash and found that the quality of green technology innovation is positively correlated with the number of negative news reports in the media of listed companies, while the number of negative news reports in the media of listed companies is positively correlated with the risk of a stock price collapse. Finally, we conducted a DID regression by using the impact of exogenous policy shocks on the quality of green technology innovation, and the main results passed the robustness test.
We provide quantitative predictions of first order supply and demand shocks for the U.S. economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyze the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labor Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 22% of the US economys GDP, jeopardise 24% of jobs and reduce total wage income by 17%. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to have output constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks -- we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.
The study examines the relationship between mobile financial services and individual financial behavior in India wherein a sizeable population is yet to be financially included. Addressing the endogeneity associated with the use of mobile financial services using an instrumental variable method, the study finds that the use of mobile financial services increases the likelihood of investment, having insurance and borrowing from formal financial institutions. Further, the analysis highlights that access to mobile financial services have the potential to bridge the gender divide in financial inclusion. Fastening the pace of access to mobile financial services may partially alter pandemic induced poverty.
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.