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Register a new userOn the Importance of Diversity in Re-Sampling for Imbalanced Data and Rare Events in Mortality Risk Models
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Added by
Uwe Aickelin
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Surgical risk increases significantly when patients present with comorbid conditions. This has resulted in the creation of numerous risk stratification tools with the objective of formulating associated surgical risk to assist both surgeons and patients in decision-making. The Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) is one of the tools developed to predict mortality risk throughout the entire perioperative period for major elective in-patient surgeries in the UK. In this study, we enhance the original SORT prediction model (UK SORT) by addressing the class imbalance within the dataset. Our proposed method investigates the application of diversity-based selection on top of common re-sampling techniques to enhance the classifiers capability in detecting minority (mortality) events. Diversity amongst training datasets is an essential factor in ensuring re-sampled data keeps an accurate depiction of the minority/majority class region, thereby solving the generalization problem of mainstream sampling approaches. We incorporate the use of the Solow-Polasky measure as a drop-in functionality to evaluate diversity, with the addition of greedy algorithms to identify and discard subsets that share the most similarity. Additionally, through empirical experiments, we prove that the performance of the classifier trained over diversity-based dataset outperforms the original classifier over ten external datasets. Our diversity-based re-sampling method elevates the performance of the UK SORT algorithm by 1.4$.
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We present a new method for sampling rare and large fluctuations in a non-equilibrium system governed by a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with additive forcing. To this end, we deploy the so-called instanton formalism that corresponds to a saddle-point approximation of the action in the path integral formulation of the underlying SPDE. The crucial step in our approach is the formulation of an alternative SPDE that incorporates knowledge of the instanton solution such that we are able to constrain the dynamical evolutions around extreme flow configurations only. Finally, a reweighting procedure based on the Girsanov theorem is applied to recover the full distribution function of the original system. The entire procedure is demonstrated on the example of the one-dimensional Burgers equation. Furthermore, we compare our method to conventional direct numerical simulations as well as to Hybrid Monte Carlo methods. It will be shown that the instanton-based sampling method outperforms both approaches and allows for an accurate quantification of the whole probability density function of velocity gradients from the core to the very far tails.
Objective: This study illustrates the ambiguity of ROC in evaluating two classifiers of 90-day LVAD mortality. This paper also introduces the precision recall curve (PRC) as a supplemental metric that is more representative of LVAD classifiers performance in predicting the minority class. Background: In the LVAD domain, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) is a commonly applied metric of performance of classifiers. However, ROC can provide a distorted view of classifiers ability to predict short-term mortality due to the overwhelmingly greater proportion of patients who survive, i.e. imbalanced data. Methods: This study compared the ROC and PRC for the outcome of two classifiers for 90-day LVAD mortality for 800 patients (test group) recorded in INTERMACS who received a continuous-flow LVAD between 2006 and 2016 (mean age of 59 years; 146 females vs. 654 males) in which mortality rate is only %8 at 90-day (imbalanced data). The two classifiers were HeartMate Risk Score (HMRS) and a Random Forest (RF). Results: The ROC indicates fairly good performance of RF and HRMS classifiers with Area Under Curves (AUC) of 0.77 vs. 0.63, respectively. This is in contrast with their PRC with AUC of 0.43 vs. 0.16 for RF and HRMS, respectively. The PRC for HRMS showed the precision rapidly dropped to only 10% with slightly increasing sensitivity. Conclusion: The ROC can portray an overly-optimistic performance of a classifier or risk score when applied to imbalanced data. The PRC provides better insight about the performance of a classifier by focusing on the minority class.
Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) has shown its strong ability in utilizing unlabeled data when labeled data is scarce. However, most SSL algorithms work under the assumption that the class distributions are balanced in both training and test sets. In this work, we consider the problem of SSL on class-imbalanced data, which better reflects real-world situations but has only received limited attention so far. In particular, we decouple the training of the representation and the classifier, and systematically investigate the effects of different data re-sampling techniques when training the whole network including a classifier as well as fine-tuning the feature extractor only. We find that data re-sampling is of critical importance to learn a good classifier as it increases the accuracy of the pseudo-labels, in particular for the minority classes in the unlabeled data. Interestingly, we find that accurate pseudo-labels do not help when training the feature extractor, rather contrariwise, data re-sampling harms the training of the feature extractor. This finding is against the general intuition that wrong pseudo-labels always harm the model performance in SSL. Based on these findings, we suggest to re-think the current paradigm of having a single data re-sampling strategy and develop a simple yet highly effective Bi-Sampling (BiS) strategy for SSL on class-imbalanced data. BiS implements two different re-sampling strategies for training the feature extractor and the classifier and integrates this decoupled training into an end-to-end framework... Code will be released at https://github.com/TACJu/Bi-Sampling.
Deep neural networks, when optimized with sufficient data, provide accurate representations of high-dimensional functions; in contrast, function approximation techniques that have predominated in scientific computing do not scale well with dimensionality. As a result, many high-dimensional sampling and approximation problems once thought intractable are being revisited through the lens of machine learning. While the promise of unparalleled accuracy may suggest a renaissance for applications that require parameterizing representations of complex systems, in many applications gathering sufficient data to develop such a representation remains a significant challenge. Here we introduce an approach that combines rare events sampling techniques with neural network optimization to optimize objective functions that are dominated by rare events. We show that importance sampling reduces the asymptotic variance of the solution to a learning problem, suggesting benefits for generalization. We study our algorithm in the context of learning dynamical transition pathways between two states of a system, a problem with applications in statistical physics and implications in machine learning theory. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that we can successfully learn even with the compounding difficulties of high-dimension and rare data.
Many pairwise classification tasks, such as paraphrase detection and open-domain question answering, naturally have extreme label imbalance (e.g., $99.99%$ of examples are negatives). In contrast, many recent datasets heuristically choose examples to ensure label balance. We show that these heuristics lead to trained models that generalize poorly: State-of-the art models trained on QQP and WikiQA each have only $2.4%$ average precision when evaluated on realistically imbalanced test data. We instead collect training data with active learning, using a BERT-based embedding model to efficiently retrieve uncertain points from a very large pool of unlabeled utterance pairs. By creating balanced training data with more informative negative examples, active learning greatly improves average precision to $32.5%$ on QQP and $20.1%$ on WikiQA.
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