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Register a new userThe Effect of Declustering on the Size Distribution of Mainshocks
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Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies, including seismic hazard assessment. We assess the effect of declustering on the frequency-magnitude distribution of mainshocks. In particular, we examine the dependence of the b-value of declustered catalogs on the choice of declustering approach and algorithm-specific parameters. Using the catalog of earthquakes in California since 1980, we show that the b-value decreases by up to 30% due to declustering with respect to the undeclustered catalog. The extent of the reduction is highly dependent on the declustering method and parameters applied. We then reproduce a similar effect by declustering synthetic earthquake catalogs with known b-value, which have been generated using an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Our analysis suggests that the observed decrease in b-value must, at least partially, arise from the application of the declustering algorithm on the catalog, rather than from differences in the nature of mainshocks versus fore- or aftershocks. We conclude that declustering should be considered as a potential source of bias in seismicity and hazard studies.
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The aftershock productivity law, first described by Utsu in 1970, is an exponential function of the form K=K0.exp({alpha}M) where K is the number of aftershocks, M the mainshock magnitude, and {alpha} the productivity parameter. The Utsu law remains empirical in nature although it has also been retrieved in static stress simulations. Here, we explain this law based on Solid Seismicity, a geometrical theory of seismicity where seismicity patterns are described by mathematical expressions obtained from geometric operations on a permanent static stress field. We recover the exponential form but with a break in scaling predicted between small and large magnitudes M, with {alpha}=1.5ln(10) and ln(10), respectively, in agreement with results from previous static stress simulations. We suggest that the lack of break in scaling observed in seismicity catalogues (with {alpha}=ln(10)) could be an artefact from existing aftershock selection methods, which assume a continuous behavior over the full magnitude range. While the possibility for such an artefact is verified in simulations, the existence of the theoretical kink remains to be proven.
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered earthquakes. In nearly all generalizations of the ETAS model, the magnitudes of the background and the triggered earthquakes are assumed to follow Gutenberg-Richter law with the same exponent (b{eta}-value). Furthermore, the magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes are always assumed to be independent of the magnitude of the triggering earthquake. Using an EM algorithm applied to the Californian earthquake catalogue, we show that the distribution of earthquake magnitudes exhibits three distinct b{eta}-values: b{eta}_b for background events; b{eta}_a-{delta} and b{eta}_a+{delta}, respectively, for triggered events below and above the magnitude of the triggering earthquake; the two last values express a correlation between the magnitudes of triggered events with that of the triggering earthquake, a feature so far absent in all proposed operational generalizations of the ETAS model. The ETAS model incorporating this kinked magnitude distribution provides by far the best description of seismic catalogs and could thus have the best forecasting potential. We speculate that the kinked magnitude distribution may result from the system tending to restore the symmetry of the regional displacement gradient tensor that has been broken by the initiating event. The general emerging concept could be that while the background events occur primarily to accommodate the symmetric stress tensor at the boundaries of the system, the triggered earthquakes are quasi-Goldstone fluctuations of a self-organized critical deformation state.
In this paper we address the question of the size distribution of firms. To this aim, we use the Bloomberg database comprising multinational firms within the years 1995-2003, and analyze the data of the sales and the total assets of the separate financial statement of the Japanese and the US companies, and make a comparison of the size distributions between the Japanese companies and the US companies. We find that (i) the size distribution of the US firms is approximately log-normal, in agreement with Gibrats observation (Gibrat 1931), and in contrast (ii) the size distribution of the Japanese firms is clearly not log-normal, and the upper tail of the size distribution follows the Pareto law. It agree with the predictions of the Simon model (Simon 1955). Key words: the size distribution of firms, the Gibrats law, and the Pareto law
We report results of 3D Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations aiming at investigating the role of the boundary vibration in inducing frictional weakening in sheared granular layers. We study the role of different vibration amplitudes applied at various shear stress levels, for a granular layer in the stick-slip regime and in the steady-sliding regime. Results are reported in terms of friction drops and kinetic energy release associated with frictional weakening events. We find that larger vibration amplitude induces larger frictional weakening events. The results show evidence of a threshold below which no induced frictional weakening takes place. Friction drop size is found to be dependent on the shear stress at the time of vibration. A significant increase in the ratio between the number of slipping contacts to the number of sticking contacts in the granular layer is observed for large vibration amplitudes. These vibration-induced contact rearrangements enhance particle mobilization and induces a friction drop and kinetic energy release. This observation provides some insight into the grain-scale mechanisms of frictional weakening by boundary vibration in a dense sheared granular layer. In addition to characterizing the basic physics of vibration induced shear weakening, we are attempting to understand how a fault fails in the earth under seismic wave forcing. This is the well know phenomenon of dynamic earthquake triggering. We believe that the granular physics are key to this understanding.
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