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Register a new userLearning Prediction Intervals for Model Performance
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Benjamin Elder
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Understanding model performance on unlabeled data is a fundamental challenge of developing, deploying, and maintaining AI systems. Model performance is typically evaluated using test sets or periodic manual quality assessments, both of which require laborious manual data labeling. Automated performance prediction techniques aim to mitigate this burden, but potential inaccuracy and a lack of trust in their predictions has prevented their widespread adoption. We address this core problem of performance prediction uncertainty with a method to compute prediction intervals for model performance. Our methodology uses transfer learning to train an uncertainty model to estimate the uncertainty of model performance predictions. We evaluate our approach across a wide range of drift conditions and show substantial improvement over competitive baselines. We believe this result makes prediction intervals, and performance prediction in general, significantly more practical for real-world use.
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Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the reliability of the model predictions. This requires us to quantify the uncertainty of model prediction and construct prediction intervals. In this paper, We explore the uncertainty in deep learning to construct the prediction intervals. In general, We comprehensively consider two categories of uncertainties: aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. We design a special loss function, which enables us to learn uncertainty without uncertainty label. We only need to supervise the learning of regression task. We learn the aleatory uncertainty implicitly from the loss function. And that epistemic uncertainty is accounted for in ensembled form. Our method correlates the construction of prediction intervals with the uncertainty estimation. Impressive results on some publicly available datasets show that the performance of our method is competitive with other state-of-the-art methods.
We present a general, efficient technique for providing contextual predictions that are multivalid in various senses, against an online sequence of adversarially chosen examples $(x,y)$. This means that the resulting estimates correctly predict various statistics of the labels $y$ not just marginally -- as averaged over the sequence of examples -- but also conditionally on $x in G$ for any $G$ belonging to an arbitrary intersecting collection of groups $mathcal{G}$. We provide three instantiations of this framework. The first is mean prediction, which corresponds to an online algorithm satisfying the notion of multicalibration from Hebert-Johnson et al. The second is variance and higher moment prediction, which corresponds to an online algorithm satisfying the notion of mean-conditioned moment multicalibration from Jung et al. Finally, we define a new notion of prediction interval multivalidity, and give an algorithm for finding prediction intervals which satisfy it. Because our algorithms handle adversarially chosen examples, they can equally well be used to predict statistics of the residuals of arbitrary point prediction methods, giving rise to very general techniques for quantifying the uncertainty of predictions of black box algorithms, even in an online adversarial setting. When instantiated for prediction intervals, this solves a similar problem as conformal prediction, but in an adversarial environment and with multivalidity guarantees stronger than simple marginal coverage guarantees.
Accurate models of patient survival probabilities provide important information to clinicians prescribing care for life-threatening and terminal ailments. A recently developed class of models - known as individual survival distributions (ISDs) - produces patient-specific survival functions that offer greater descriptive power of patient outcomes than was previously possible. Unfortunately, at the time of writing, ISD models almost universally lack uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we demonstrate that an existing method for estimating simultaneous prediction intervals from samples can easily be adapted for patient-specific survival curve analysis and yields accurate results. Furthermore, we introduce both a modification to the existing method and a novel method for estimating simultaneous prediction intervals and show that they offer competitive performance. It is worth emphasizing that these methods are not limited to survival analysis and can be applied in any context in which sampling the distribution of interest is tractable. Code is available at https://github.com/ssokota/spie .
Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point, making evaluation and comparison across different studies difficult. Our work leverages: (1) the concept of operating characteristics curves and (2) the notion of a gain over a simple reference, to derive a novel operating point agnostic assessment methodology for prediction intervals. The paper describes the corresponding algorithm, provides a theoretical analysis, and demonstrates its utility in multiple scenarios. We argue that the proposed method addresses the current need for comprehensive assessment of prediction intervals and thus represents a valuable addition to the uncertainty quantification toolbox.
We propose a novel prediction interval method to learn prediction mean values, lower and upper bounds of prediction intervals from three independently trained neural networks only using the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss, for uncertainty quantification in regression tasks. Our method requires no distributional assumption on data, does not introduce unusual hyperparameters to either the neural network models or the loss function. Moreover, our method can effectively identify out-of-distribution samples and reasonably quantify their uncertainty. Numerical experiments on benchmark regression problems show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and identification of out-of-distribution samples.
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