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Register a new userOffline Policy Selection under Uncertainty
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Mengjiao Yang
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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The presence of uncertainty in policy evaluation significantly complicates the process of policy ranking and selection in real-world settings. We formally consider offline policy selection as learning preferences over a set of policy prospects given a fixed experience dataset. While one can select or rank policies based on point estimates of their policy values or high-confidence intervals, access to the full distribution over ones belief of the policy value enables more flexible selection algorithms under a wider range of downstream evaluation metrics. We propose BayesDICE for estimating this belief distribution in terms of posteriors of distribution correction ratios derived from stochastic constraints (as opposed to explicit likelihood, which is not available). Empirically, BayesDICE is highly competitive to existing state-of-the-art approaches in confidence interval estimation. More importantly, we show how the belief distribution estimated by BayesDICE may be used to rank policies with respect to any arbitrary downstream policy selection metric, and we empirically demonstrate that this selection procedure significantly outperforms existing approaches, such as ranking policies according to mean or high-confidence lower bound value estimates.
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This paper addresses the problem of policy selection in domains with abundant logged data, but with a very restricted interaction budget. Solving this problem would enable safe evaluation and deployment of offline reinforcement learning policies in industry, robotics, and recommendation domains among others. Several off-policy evaluation (OPE) techniques have been proposed to assess the value of policies using only logged data. However, there is still a big gap between the evaluation by OPE and the full online evaluation in the real environment. At the same time, large amount of online interactions is often not feasible in practice. To overcome this problem, we introduce emph{active offline policy selection} -- a novel sequential decision approach that combines logged data with online interaction to identify the best policy. This approach uses OPE estimates to warm start the online evaluation. Then, in order to utilize the limited environment interactions wisely, it relies on a Bayesian optimization method, with a kernel function that represents policy similarity, to decide which policy to evaluate next. We use multiple benchmarks with a large number of candidate policies to show that the proposed approach improves upon state-of-the-art OPE estimates and pure online policy evaluation.
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) refers to the problem of learning policies entirely from a large batch of previously collected data. This problem setting offers the promise of utilizing such datasets to acquire policies without any costly or dangerous active exploration. However, it is also challenging, due to the distributional shift between the offline training data and those states visited by the learned policy. Despite significant recent progress, the most successful prior methods are model-free and constrain the policy to the support of data, precluding generalization to unseen states. In this paper, we first observe that an existing model-based RL algorithm already produces significant gains in the offline setting compared to model-free approaches. However, standard model-based RL methods, designed for the online setting, do not provide an explicit mechanism to avoid the offline settings distributional shift issue. Instead, we propose to modify the existing model-based RL methods by applying them with rewards artificially penalized by the uncertainty of the dynamics. We theoretically show that the algorithm maximizes a lower bound of the policys return under the true MDP. We also characterize the trade-off between the gain and risk of leaving the support of the batch data. Our algorithm, Model-based Offline Policy Optimization (MOPO), outperforms standard model-based RL algorithms and prior state-of-the-art model-free offline RL algorithms on existing offline RL benchmarks and two challenging continuous control tasks that require generalizing from data collected for a different task. The code is available at https://github.com/tianheyu927/mopo.
Model-based algorithms, which learn a dynamics model from logged experience and perform some sort of pessimistic planning under the learned model, have emerged as a promising paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (offline RL). However, practical variants of such model-based algorithms rely on explicit uncertainty quantification for incorporating pessimism. Uncertainty estimation with complex models, such as deep neural networks, can be difficult and unreliable. We overcome this limitation by developing a new model-based offline RL algorithm, COMBO, that regularizes the value function on out-of-support state-action tuples generated via rollouts under the learned model. This results in a conservative estimate of the value function for out-of-support state-action tuples, without requiring explicit uncertainty estimation. We theoretically show that our method optimizes a lower bound on the true policy value, that this bound is tighter than that of prior methods, and our approach satisfies a policy improvement guarantee in the offline setting. Through experiments, we find that COMBO consistently performs as well or better as compared to prior offline model-free and model-based methods on widely studied offline RL benchmarks, including image-based tasks.
Offline reinforcement learning (RL purely from logged data) is an important avenue for deploying RL techniques in real-world scenarios. However, existing hyperparameter selection methods for offline RL break the offline assumption by evaluating policies corresponding to each hyperparameter setting in the environment. This online execution is often infeasible and hence undermines the main aim of offline RL. Therefore, in this work, we focus on textit{offline hyperparameter selection}, i.e. methods for choosing the best policy from a set of many policies trained using different hyperparameters, given only logged data. Through large-scale empirical evaluation we show that: 1) offline RL algorithms are not robust to hyperparameter choices, 2) factors such as the offline RL algorithm and method for estimating Q values can have a big impact on hyperparameter selection, and 3) when we control those factors carefully, we can reliably rank policies across hyperparameter choices, and therefore choose policies which are close to the best policy in the set. Overall, our results present an optimistic view that offline hyperparameter selection is within reach, even in challenging tasks with pixel observations, high dimensional action spaces, and long horizon.
We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning with model-based control, whose goal is to learn a dynamics model from the experience replay and obtain a pessimism-oriented agent under the learned model. Current model-based constraint includes explicit uncertainty penalty and implicit conservative regularization that pushes Q-values of out-of-distribution state-action pairs down and the in-distribution up. While the uncertainty estimation, on which the former relies on, can be loosely calibrated for complex dynamics, the latter performs slightly better. To extend the basic idea of regularization without uncertainty quantification, we propose distributionally robust offline model-based policy optimization (DROMO), which leverages the ideas in distributionally robust optimization to penalize a broader range of out-of-distribution state-action pairs beyond the standard empirical out-of-distribution Q-value minimization. We theoretically show that our method optimizes a lower bound on the ground-truth policy evaluation, and it can be incorporated into any existing policy gradient algorithms. We also analyze the theoretical properties of DROMOs linear and non-linear instantiations.
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