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Register a new userCosmic-ray antiprotons in the AMS-02 era: A sensitive probe of dark matter
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Jan Heisig
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Cosmic-ray antiprotons are a powerful tool for astroparticle physics. While the bulk of measured antiprotons is consistent with a secondary origin, the precise data of the AMS-02 experiment provides us with encouraging prospects to search for a subdominant primary component, e.g. from dark matter. In this brief review, we discuss recent limits on heavy dark matter as well as a tentative signal from annihilation of dark matter with a mass $lesssim 100$ GeV. We emphasize the special role of systematic errors that can affect the signal. In particular, we discuss recent progress in the modeling of secondary production cross sections and correlated errors in the AMS-02 data, the dominant ones originating from uncertainties in the cross sections for cosmic-ray absorption in the detector.
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AMS-02 on the International Space Station has been releasing data of unprecedented accuracy. This poses new challenges for their interpretation. We refine the methodology to get a statistically sound determination of the cosmic-ray propagation parameters. We inspect the numerical precision of the model calculation, nuclear cross-section uncertainties, and energy correlations in data systematic errors. We used the 1D diffusion model in USINE. Our $chi^2$ analysis includes a covariance matrix of errors for AMS-02 systematics and nuisance parameters to account for cross-section uncertainties. Mock data were used to validate some of our choices. We show that any mis-modelling of nuclear cross-section values or the energy correlation length of the covariance matrix of errors biases the analysis. It also makes good models ($chi^2_{rm min}/{rm dof}approx1$) appear as excluded ($chi^2_{rm min}/{rm dof}gg1$). We provide a framework to mitigate these effects (AMS-02 data are interpreted in a companion paper). New production cross-section data and the publication by the AMS-02 collaboration of a covariance matrix of errors for each data set would be an important step towards an unbiased view of cosmic-ray propagation in the Galaxy.
The AMS-02 experiment has ushered cosmic-ray physics into precision era. In a companion paper, we designed an improved method to calibrate propagation models on B/C data. Here we provide a robust prediction of the $bar{p}$ flux, accounting for several sources of uncertainties and their correlations. Combined with a correlation matrix for the $bar{p}$ data, we show that the latter are consistent with a secondary origin. This paper presents key elements relevant to the dark matter search in this channel, notably by pointing out the inherent difficulties in achieving predictions at the percent-level precision.
Global fits of primary and secondary cosmic-ray (CR) fluxes measured by AMS-02 have great potential to study CR propagation models and search for exotic sources of antimatter such as annihilating dark matter (DM). Previous studies of AMS-02 antiprotons revealed a possible hint for a DM signal which, however, could be affected by systematic uncertainties. To test the robustness of such a DM signal, in this work we systematically study two important sources of uncertainties: the antiproton production cross sections needed to calculate the source spectra of secondary antiprotons and the potential correlations in the experimental data, so far not provided by the AMS-02 Collaboration. To investigate the impact of cross-section uncertainties we perform global fits of CR spectra including a covariance matrix determined from nuclear cross-section measurements. As an alternative approach, we perform a joint fit to both the CR and cross-section data. The two methods agree and show that cross-section uncertainties have a small effect on the CR fits and on the significance of a potential DM signal, which we find to be at the level of $3sigma$. Correlations in the data can have a much larger impact. To illustrate this effect, we determine possible benchmark models for the correlations in a data-driven method. The inclusion of correlations strongly improves the constraints on the propagation model and, furthermore, enhances the significance of the DM signal up to above $5sigma$. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing the covariance of the experimental data, which is needed to fully exploit their potential.
The flux of cosmic ray antiprotons from neutralino annihilations in the galactic halo is computed for a large sample of models in the MSSM (the Minimal Supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model). We also revisit the problem of estimating the background of low-energy cosmic ray induced secondary antiprotons, taking into account their subsequent interactions (and energy loss) and the presence of nuclei in the interstellar matter. We consider a two-zone diffusion model, with and without a galactic wind. We find that, given the uncertainties in the background predictions, there is no need for a primary (exotic) component to explain present data. However, allowing for a signal by playing with the uncertainties in the background estimate, we discuss the characteristic features of the supersymmetric models which give a satisfactory description of the data. We point out that in some cases the optimal kinetic energy to search for a signal from supersymmetric dark matter is above several GeV, rather than the traditional sub-GeV region. The large astrophysical uncertainties involved do not, one the other hand, allow the exclusion of any of the MSSM models we consider, on the basis of data. We present besides numerical results also convenient parameterizations of the antiproton yields of all `basic two-body final states. We also give examples of the yield and differential energy spectrum for a set of supersymmetric models with high rates. We also remark that it is difficult to put a limit on the antiproton lifetime from present measurements, since the injection of antiprotons from neutralino annihilation can compensate the loss from decay.
Several studies have pointed out an excess in the AMS-02 antiproton spectrum at rigidities of 10-20 GV. Its spectral properties were found to be consistent with a dark-matter particle of mass 50-100 GeV which annihilates hadronically at roughly the thermal rate. In this work, we reinvestigate the antiproton excess including all relevant sources of systematic errors. Most importantly, we perform a realistic estimate of the correlations in the AMS-02 systematic error which could potentially fake a dark-matter signal. The dominant systematics in the relevant rigidity range originate from uncertainties in the cross sections for absorption of cosmic rays within the detector material. For the first time, we calculate their correlations within the full Glauber-Gribov theory of inelastic scattering. The AMS-02 correlations enter our spectral search for dark matter in the form of covariance matrices which we make publicly available for the cosmic-ray community. We find that the global significance of the antiproton excess is reduced to below 1 $sigma$ once all systematics, including the derived AMS-02 error correlations, are taken into account. No significant preference for a dark-matter signal in the AMS-02 antiproton data is found in the mass range 10-10000 GeV.
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