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Learn to Predict Vertical Track Irregularity with Extremely Imbalanced Data

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 Added by Yutao Chen
 Publication date 2020
and research's language is English




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Railway systems require regular manual maintenance, a large part of which is dedicated to inspecting track deformation. Such deformation might severely impact trains runtime security, whereas such inspections remain costly for both finance and human resources. Therefore, a more precise and efficient approach to detect railway track deformation is in urgent need. In this paper, we showcase an application framework for predicting vertical track irregularity, based on a real-world, large-scale dataset produced by several operating railways in China. We have conducted extensive experiments on various machine learning & ensemble learning algorithms in an effort to maximize the models capability in capturing any irregularity. We also proposed a novel approach for handling imbalanced data in multivariate time series prediction tasks with adaptive data sampling and penalized loss. Such an approach has proven to reduce models sensitivity to the imbalanced target domain, thus improving its performance in predicting rare extreme values.

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Systems of interacting agents can often be modeled as contextual games, where the context encodes additional information, beyond the control of any agent (e.g. weather for traffic and fiscal policy for market economies). In such systems, the most likely outcome is given by a Nash equilibrium. In many practical settings, only game equilibria are observed, while the optimal parameters for a game model are unknown. This work introduces Nash Fixed Point Networks (N-FPNs), a class of implicit-depth neural networks that output Nash equilibria of contextual games. The N-FPN architecture fuses data-driven modeling with provided constraints. Given equilibrium observations of a contextual game, N-FPN parameters are learnt to predict equilibria outcomes given only the context. We present an end-to-end training scheme for N-FPNs that is simple and memory efficient to implement with existing autodifferentiation tools. N-FPNs also exploit a novel constraint decoupling scheme to avoid costly projections. Provided numerical examples show the efficacy of N-FPNs on atomic and non-atomic games (e.g. traffic routing).
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The dynamic ensemble selection of classifiers is an effective approach for processing label-imbalanced data classifications. However, such a technique is prone to overfitting, owing to the lack of regularization methods and the dependence of the aforementioned technique on local geometry. In this study, focusing on binary imbalanced data classification, a novel dynamic ensemble method, namely adaptive ensemble of classifiers with regularization (AER), is proposed, to overcome the stated limitations. The method solves the overfitting problem through implicit regularization. Specifically, it leverages the properties of stochastic gradient descent to obtain the solution with the minimum norm, thereby achieving regularization; furthermore, it interpolates the ensemble weights by exploiting the global geometry of data to further prevent overfitting. According to our theoretical proofs, the seemingly complicated AER paradigm, in addition to its regularization capabilities, can actually reduce the asymptotic time and memory complexities of several other algorithms. We evaluate the proposed AER method on seven benchmark imbalanced datasets from the UCI machine learning repository and one artificially generated GMM-based dataset with five variations. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the major existing algorithms based on multiple metrics in most cases, and two hypothesis tests (McNemars and Wilcoxon tests) verify the statistical significance further. In addition, the proposed method has other preferred properties such as special advantages in dealing with highly imbalanced data, and it pioneers the research on the regularization for dynamic ensemble methods.
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