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Register a new userPopulation synthesis for urban resident modeling using deep generative models
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The impacts of new real estate developments are strongly associated to its population distribution (types and compositions of households, incomes, social demographics) conditioned on aspects such as dwelling typology, price, location, and floor level. This paper presents a Machine Learning based method to model the population distribution of upcoming developments of new buildings within larger neighborhood/condo settings. We use a real data set from Ecopark Township, a real estate development project in Hanoi, Vietnam, where we study two machine learning algorithms from the deep generative models literature to create a population of synthetic agents: Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) and Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGAN). A large experimental study was performed, showing that the CVAE outperforms both the empirical distribution, a non-trivial baseline model, and the CGAN in estimating the population distribution of new real estate development projects.
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Population synthesis is concerned with the generation of synthetic yet realistic representations of populations. It is a fundamental problem in the modeling of transport where the synthetic populations of micro-agents represent a key input to most agent-based models. In this paper, a new methodological framework for how to grow pools of micro-agents is presented. The model framework adopts a deep generative modeling approach from machine learning based on a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Compared to the previous population synthesis approaches, including Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), Gibbs sampling and traditional generative models such as Bayesian Networks or Hidden Markov Models, the proposed method allows fitting the full joint distribution for high dimensions. The proposed methodology is compared with a conventional Gibbs sampler and a Bayesian Network by using a large-scale Danish trip diary. It is shown that, while these two methods outperform the VAE in the low-dimensional case, they both suffer from scalability issues when the number of modeled attributes increases. It is also shown that the Gibbs sampler essentially replicates the agents from the original sample when the required conditional distributions are estimated as frequency tables. In contrast, the VAE allows addressing the problem of sampling zeros by generating agents that are virtually different from those in the original data but have similar statistical properties. The presented approach can support agent-based modeling at all levels by enabling richer synthetic populations with smaller zones and more detailed individual characteristics.
We present a deep generative scene modeling technique for indoor environments. Our goal is to train a generative model using a feed-forward neural network that maps a prior distribution (e.g., a normal distribution) to the distribution of primary objects in indoor scenes. We introduce a 3D object arrangement representation that models the locations and orientations of objects, based on their size and shape attributes. Moreover, our scene representation is applicable for 3D objects with different multiplicities (repetition counts), selected from a database. We show a principled way to train this model by combining discriminator losses for both a 3D object arrangement representation and a 2D image-based representation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our scene representation and the deep learning method on benchmark datasets. We also show the applications of this generative model in scene interpolation and scene completion.
We propose Intermediate Layer Optimization (ILO), a novel optimization algorithm for solving inverse problems with deep generative models. Instead of optimizing only over the initial latent code, we progressively change the input layer obtaining successively more expressive generators. To explore the higher dimensional spaces, our method searches for latent codes that lie within a small $l_1$ ball around the manifold induced by the previous layer. Our theoretical analysis shows that by keeping the radius of the ball relatively small, we can improve the established error bound for compressed sensing with deep generative models. We empirically show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods introduced in StyleGAN-2 and PULSE for a wide range of inverse problems including inpainting, denoising, super-resolution and compressed sensing.
Learning graph generative models is a challenging task for deep learning and has wide applicability to a range of domains like chemistry, biology and social science. However current deep neural methods suffer from limited scalability: for a graph with $n$ nodes and $m$ edges, existing deep neural methods require $Omega(n^2)$ complexity by building up the adjacency matrix. On the other hand, many real world graphs are actually sparse in the sense that $mll n^2$. Based on this, we develop a novel autoregressive model, named BiGG, that utilizes this sparsity to avoid generating the full adjacency matrix, and importantly reduces the graph generation time complexity to $O((n + m)log n)$. Furthermore, during training this autoregressive model can be parallelized with $O(log n)$ synchronization stages, which makes it much more efficient than other autoregressive models that require $Omega(n)$. Experiments on several benchmarks show that the proposed approach not only scales to orders of magnitude larger graphs than previously possible with deep autoregressive graph generative models, but also yields better graph generation quality.
In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem where the market value of a product is linear in its observed features plus some market noise. Products are sold one at a time, and only a binary response indicating success or failure of a sale is observed. Our model setting is similar to Javanmard and Nazerzadeh [2019] except that we expand the demand curve to a semiparametric model and need to learn dynamically both parametric and nonparametric components. We propose a dynamic statistical learning and decision-making policy that combines semiparametric estimation from a generalized linear model with an unknown link and online decision-making to minimize regret (maximize revenue). Under mild conditions, we show that for a market noise c.d.f. $F(cdot)$ with $m$-th order derivative ($mgeq 2$), our policy achieves a regret upper bound of $tilde{O}_{d}(T^{frac{2m+1}{4m-1}})$, where $T$ is time horizon and $tilde{O}_{d}$ is the order that hides logarithmic terms and the dimensionality of feature $d$. The upper bound is further reduced to $tilde{O}_{d}(sqrt{T})$ if $F$ is super smooth whose Fourier transform decays exponentially. In terms of dependence on the horizon $T$, these upper bounds are close to $Omega(sqrt{T})$, the lower bound where $F$ belongs to a parametric class. We further generalize these results to the case with dynamically dependent product features under the strong mixing condition.
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