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Register a new userThe statistical reliability of 267 GHz JCMT observations of Venus: No significant evidence for phosphine absorption
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M.A. Thompson
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In the light of the recent announcement of the discovery of the potential biosignature phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus I present an independent reanalysis of the original JCMT data to assess the statistical reliability of the detection. Two line detection methods are explored, low order polynomial fits and higher order multiple polynomial fits. A non-parametric bootstrap analysis reveals that neither line detection method is able to recover a statistically significant detection. Similar to the results of other reanalyses of ALMA Venus spectra, the polynomial fitting process results in false positive detections in the JCMT spectrum. There is thus no significant evidence for phosphine absorption in the JCMT Venus spectra.
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Context: ALMA observations of Venus at 267 GHz have been presented in the literature that show the apparent presence of phosphine (PH3) in its atmosphere. Phosphine has currently no evident production routes on the planets surface or in its atmosphere. Aims: The aim of this work is to assess the statistical reliability of the line detection by independent re-analysis of the ALMA data. Methods: The ALMA data were reduced as in the published study, following the provided scripts. First the spectral analysis presented in the study was reproduced and assessed. Subsequently, the spectrum was statistically evaluated, including its dependence on selected ALMA baselines. Results: We find that the 12th-order polynomial fit to the spectral passband utilised in the published study leads to spurious results. Following their recipe, five other >10 sigma lines can be produced in absorption or emission within 60 km/s from the PH3 1-0 transition frequency by suppressing the surrounding noise. Our independent analysis shows a feature near the PH3 frequency at a ~2 sigma level, below the common threshold for statistical significance. Since the spectral data have a non-Gaussian distribution, we consider a feature at such level as statistically unreliable that cannot be linked to a false positive probability. Conclusions: We find that the published 267-GHz ALMA data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus.
The detection of phosphine (PH3) in the atmosphere of Venus has been recently reported based on millimeter-wave radio observations (Greaves et al. 2020), and its re-analyses (Greaves et al. 2021a/b). In this Matters Arising we perform an independent reanalysis, identifying several issues in the interpretation of the spectroscopic data. As a result, we determine sensitive upper-limits for PH3 in Venus atmosphere (>75 km, above the cloud decks) that are discrepant with the findings in G2020 and G2021a/b. The measurements target the fundamental first rotational transition of PH3 (J=1-0) at 266.944513 GHz, which was observed with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) in June 2017 and with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in March 2019. This lines center is near the SO2 (J=309,21-318,24) transition at 266.943329 GHz (only 1.3 km/s away from the PH3 line) which represents a potential source of contamination. The JCMT and ALMA data, as presented in G2020, are at spectral resolutions comparable to the frequency separation of the two lines. Moreover, the spectral features identified are several km/s in width, and therefore do not permit distinct spectroscopic separation of the candidate spectral lines of PH3 and SO2. We present the radiative transfer modelling we have performed and then discuss the ALMA and JCMT analyses in turn.
We recover PH3 in the atmosphere of Venus in data taken with ALMA, using three different calibration methods. The whole-planet signal is recovered with 5.4{sigma} confidence using Venus bandpass self-calibration, and two simpler approaches are shown to yield example 4.5-4.8{sigma} detections of the equatorial belt. Non-recovery by Villanueva et al. is attributable to (a) including areas of the planet with high spectral-artefacts and (b) retaining all antenna baselines which raises the noise by a factor ~2.5. We release a data-processing script that enables our whole-planet result to be reproduced. The JCMT detection of PH3 remains robust, with the alternative SO2 attribution proposed by Villanueva et al. appearing inconsistent both in line-velocity and with millimetre-wavelength SO2 monitoring. SO2 contamination of the ALMA PH3-line is minimal. Net abundances for PH3, in the gas column above ~55 km, are up to ~20 ppb planet-wide with JCMT, and ~7 ppb with ALMA (but with signal-loss possible on scales approaching planetary size). Derived abundances will differ if PH3 occupies restricted altitudes - molecules in the clouds will contribute significantly less absorption at line-centre than equivalent numbers of mesospheric molecules - but in the latter zone, PH3 lifetime is expected to be short. Given we recover phosphine, we suggest possible solutions (requiring substantial further testing): a small collisional broadening coefficient could give narrow lines from lower altitude, or a high eddy diffusion coefficient could allow molecules to survive longer at higher altitudes. Alternatively, PH3 could be actively produced by an unknown mechanism in the mesosphere, but this would need to be in addition to cloud-level PH3 detected retrospectively by Pioneer-Venus.
We published spectra of phosphine molecules in Venus clouds, following open-science principles in releasing data and scripts (with community input leading to ALMA re-processing, now benefiting multiple projects). Some misconceptions about de-trending of spectral baselines have also emerged, which we address here. Using the JCMT PH3-discovery data, we show that mathematically-correct polynomial fitting of periodic ripples does not lead to fake lines (probability < ~1%). We then show that the ripples can be characterised in a non-subjective manner via Fourier transforms. A 20 ppb PH3 feature is ~5{sigma} compared to the JCMT baseline-uncertainty, and is distinctive as a narrow perturber of the periodic ripple pattern. The structure of the FT-derived baseline also shows that polynomial fitting, if unguided, can amplify artefacts and so artificially reduce significance of real lines.
Recently published ALMA observations suggest the presence of 20 ppb PH$_3$ in the upper clouds of Venus. This is an unexpected result, as PH$_3$ does not have a readily apparent source and should be rapidly photochemically destroyed according to our current understanding of Venus atmospheric chemistry. While the reported PH$_3$ spectral line at 266.94 GHz is nearly co-located with an SO$_2$ spectral line, the non-detection of stronger SO$_2$ lines in the wideband ALMA data is used to rule out SO$_2$ as the origin of the feature. We present a reassessment of wideband and narrowband datasets derived from these ALMA observations. The ALMA observations are re-reduced following both the initial and revised calibration procedures discussed by the authors of the original study. We also investigate the phenomenon of apparent spectral line dilution over varying spatial scales resulting from the ALMA antenna configuration. A 266.94 GHz spectral feature is apparent in the narrowband data using the initial calibration procedures, but this same feature can not be identified following calibration revisions. The feature is also not reproduced in the wideband data. While the SO$_2$ spectral line is not observed at 257.54 GHz in the ALMA wideband data, our dilution simulations suggest that SO$_2$ abundances greater than the previously suggested 10 ppb limit would also not be detected by ALMA. Additional millimeter, sub-millimeter, and infrared observations of Venus should be undertaken to further investigate the possibility of PH$_3$ in the Venus atmosphere.
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