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Euclid: impact of nonlinear prescriptions on cosmological parameter estimation from weak lensing cosmic shear

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 Added by Matteo Martinelli
 Publication date 2020
  fields Physics
and research's language is English




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Upcoming surveys will map the growth of large-scale structure with unprecented precision, improving our understanding of the dark sector of the Universe. Unfortunately, much of the cosmological information is encoded by the small scales, where the clustering of dark matter and the effects of astrophysical feedback processes are not fully understood. This can bias the estimates of cosmological parameters, which we study here for a joint analysis of mock Euclid cosmic shear and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We use different implementations for the modelling of the signal on small scales and find that they result in significantly different predictions. Moreover, the different nonlinear corrections lead to biased parameter estimates, especially when the analysis is extended into the highly nonlinear regime, with both the Hubble constant, $H_0$, and the clustering amplitude, $sigma_8$, affected the most. Improvements in the modelling of nonlinear scales will therefore be needed if we are to resolve the current tension with more and better data. For a given prescription for the nonlinear power spectrum, using different corrections for baryon physics does not significantly impact the precision of Euclid, but neglecting these correction does lead to large biases in the cosmological parameters. In order to extract precise and unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters from Euclid cosmic shear data, it is therefore essential to improve the accuracy of the recipes that account for nonlinear structure formation, as well as the modelling of the impact of astrophysical processes that redistribute the baryons.



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Residual errors in shear measurements, after corrections for instrument systematics and atmospheric effects, can impact cosmological parameters derived from weak lensing observations. Here we combine convergence maps from our suite of ray-tracing simulations with random realizations of spurious shear. This allows us to quantify the errors and biases of the triplet $(Omega_m,w,sigma_8)$ derived from the power spectrum (PS), as well as from three different sets of non-Gaussian statistics of the lensing convergence field: Minkowski functionals (MF), low--order moments (LM), and peak counts (PK). Our main results are: (i) We find an order of magnitude smaller biases from the PS than in previous work. (ii) The PS and LM yield biases much smaller than the morphological statistics (MF, PK). (iii) For strictly Gaussian spurious shear with integrated amplitude as low as its current estimate of $sigma^2_{sys}approx 10^{-7}$, biases from the PS and LM would be unimportant even for a survey with the statistical power of LSST. However, we find that for surveys larger than $approx 100$ deg$^2$, non-Gaussianity in the noise (not included in our analysis) will likely be important and must be quantified to assess the biases. (iv) The morphological statistics (MF,PK) introduce important biases even for Gaussian noise, which must be corrected in large surveys. The biases are in different directions in $(Omega_m,w,sigma_8)$ parameter space, allowing self-calibration by combining multiple statistics. Our results warrant follow-up studies with more extensive lensing simulations and more accurate spurious shear estimates.
In modern weak-lensing surveys, the common approach to correct for residual systematic biases in the shear is to calibrate shape measurement algorithms using simulations. These simulations must fully capture the complexity of the observations to avoid introducing any additional bias. In this paper we study the importance of faint galaxies below the observational detection limit of a survey. We simulate simplified Euclid VIS images including and excluding this faint population, and measure the shift in the multiplicative shear bias between the two sets of simulations. We measure the shear with three different algorithms: a moment-based approach, model fitting, and machine learning. We find that for all methods, a spatially uniform random distribution of faint galaxies introduces a shear multiplicative bias of the order of a few times $10^{-3}$. This value increases to the order of $10^{-2}$ when including the clustering of the faint galaxies, as measured in the Hubble Space Telescope Ultra-Deep Field. The magnification of the faint background galaxies due to the brighter galaxies along the line of sight is found to have a negligible impact on the multiplicative bias. We conclude that the undetected galaxies must be included in the calibration simulations with proper clustering properties down to magnitude 28 in order to reach a residual uncertainty on the multiplicative shear bias calibration of a few times $10^{-4}$, in line with the $2times10^{-3}$ total accuracy budget required by the scientific objectives of the Euclid survey. We propose two complementary methods for including faint galaxy clustering in the calibration simulations.
We investigate the potential of using cosmic voids as a probe to constrain cosmological parameters through the gravitational lensing effect of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and make predictions for the next generation surveys. By assuming the detection of a series of $approx 5 - 10$ voids along a line of sight within a square-degree patch of the sky, we found that they can be used to break the degeneracy direction of some of the cosmological parameter constraints (for example $omega_b$ and $Omega_Lambda$) in comparison with the constraints from random CMB skies with the same size area for a survey with extensive integration time. This analysis is based on our current knowledge of the average void profile and analytical estimates of the void number function. We also provide combined cosmological parameter constraints between a sky patch where series of voids are detected and a patch without voids (a randomly selected patch). The full potential of this technique relies on an accurate determination of the void profile to $approx 10$% level. For a small-area CMB observation with extensive integration time and a high signal-to-noise ratio, CMB lensing with such series of voids will provide a complementary route to cosmological parameter constraints to the CMB observations. Example of parameter constraints with a series of five voids on a $1.0^{circ} times 1.0^{circ}$ patch of the sky are $100omega_b = 2.20 pm 0.27$, $omega_c = 0.120 pm 0.022$, $Omega_Lambda = 0.682 pm 0.078$, $Delta_{mathcal{R}}^2 = left(2.22 pm 7.79right) times 10^{-9}$, $n_s = 0.962 pm 0.097$ and $tau = 0.925 pm 1.747$ at 68% C.L.
We present cosmological parameter constraints from a tomographic weak gravitational lensing analysis of ~450deg$^2$ of imaging data from the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS). For a flat $Lambda$CDM cosmology with a prior on $H_0$ that encompasses the most recent direct measurements, we find $S_8equivsigma_8sqrt{Omega_{rm m}/0.3}=0.745pm0.039$. This result is in good agreement with other low redshift probes of large scale structure, including recent cosmic shear results, along with pre-Planck cosmic microwave background constraints. A $2.3$-$sigma$ tension in $S_8$ and `substantial discordance in the full parameter space is found with respect to the Planck 2015 results. We use shear measurements for nearly 15 million galaxies, determined with a new improved `self-calibrating version of $lens$fit validated using an extensive suite of image simulations. Four-band $ugri$ photometric redshifts are calibrated directly with deep spectroscopic surveys. The redshift calibration is confirmed using two independent techniques based on angular cross-correlations and the properties of the photometric redshift probability distributions. Our covariance matrix is determined using an analytical approach, verified numerically with large mock galaxy catalogues. We account for uncertainties in the modelling of intrinsic galaxy alignments and the impact of baryon feedback on the shape of the non-linear matter power spectrum, in addition to the small residual uncertainties in the shear and redshift calibration. The cosmology analysis was performed blind. Our high-level data products, including shear correlation functions, covariance matrices, redshift distributions, and Monte Carlo Markov Chains are available at http://kids.strw.leidenuniv.nl.
Owing to the mass-sheet degeneracy, cosmic shear maps do not probe directly the Fourier modes of the underlying mass distribution on scales comparable to the survey size and larger. To assess the corresponding effect on attainable cosmological parameter constraints, we quantify the information on super-survey modes in a lognormal model and, when interpreted as nuisance parameters, their degeneracies to cosmological parameters. Our analytical and numerical calculations clarify the central role of super-sample covariance (SSC) in shaping the statistical power of cosmological observables. Reconstructing the background modes from their non-Gaussian statistical dependence to small scales modes yields the renormalized convergence. This diagonalizes the spectrum covariance matrix, and the information content of the corresponding power spectrum is increased by a factor of two over standard methods. Unfortunately, careful calculation of the Cramer-Rao bound shows that the information recovery can never be made complete, any observable built from shear fields, including optimal sufficient statistics, are subject to severe information loss, typically $80%$ to $90%$ below $ell sim 3000$ for generic cosmological parameters. The lost information can only be recovered from additional, non-shear based data. Our predictions hold just as well for a tomographic analysis, and/or full sky surveys.
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