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Register a new userUncertainty-Aware Deep Ensembles for Reliable and Explainable Predictions of Clinical Time Series
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Deep learning-based support systems have demonstrated encouraging results in numerous clinical applications involving the processing of time series data. While such systems often are very accurate, they have no inherent mechanism for explaining what influenced the predictions, which is critical for clinical tasks. However, existing explainability techniques lack an important component for trustworthy and reliable decision support, namely a notion of uncertainty. In this paper, we address this lack of uncertainty by proposing a deep ensemble approach where a collection of DNNs are trained independently. A measure of uncertainty in the relevance scores is computed by taking the standard deviation across the relevance scores produced by each model in the ensemble, which in turn is used to make the explanations more reliable. The class activation mapping method is used to assign a relevance score for each time step in the time series. Results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble is more accurate in locating relevant time steps and is more consistent across random initializations, thus making the model more trustworthy. The proposed methodology paves the way for constructing trustworthy and dependable support systems for processing clinical time series for healthcare related tasks.
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Electronic health records (EHR) consist of longitudinal clinical observations portrayed with sparsity, irregularity, and high-dimensionality, which become major obstacles in drawing reliable downstream clinical outcomes. Although there exist great numbers of imputation methods to tackle these issues, most of them ignore correlated features, temporal dynamics and entirely set aside the uncertainty. Since the missing value estimates involve the risk of being inaccurate, it is appropriate for the method to handle the less certain information differently than the reliable data. In that regard, we can use the uncertainties in estimating the missing values as the fidelity score to be further utilized to alleviate the risk of biased missing value estimates. In this work, we propose a novel variational-recurrent imputation network, which unifies an imputation and a prediction network by taking into account the correlated features, temporal dynamics, as well as the uncertainty. Specifically, we leverage the deep generative model in the imputation, which is based on the distribution among variables, and a recurrent imputation network to exploit the temporal relations, in conjunction with utilization of the uncertainty. We validated the effectiveness of our proposed model on two publicly available real-world EHR datasets: PhysioNet Challenge 2012 and MIMIC-III, and compared the results with other competing state-of-the-art methods in the literature.
Deep learning performs remarkably well on many time series analysis tasks recently. The superior performance of deep neural networks relies heavily on a large number of training data to avoid overfitting. However, the labeled data of many real-world time series applications may be limited such as classification in medical time series and anomaly detection in AIOps. As an effective way to enhance the size and quality of the training data, data augmentation is crucial to the successful application of deep learning models on time series data. In this paper, we systematically review different data augmentation methods for time series. We propose a taxonomy for the reviewed methods, and then provide a structured review for these methods by highlighting their strengths and limitations. We also empirically compare different data augmentation methods for different tasks including time series anomaly detection, classification, and forecasting. Finally, we discuss and highlight five future directions to provide useful research guidance.
It is often observed that the probabilistic predictions given by a machine learning model can disagree with averaged actual outcomes on specific subsets of data, which is also known as the issue of miscalibration. It is responsible for the unreliability of practical machine learning systems. For example, in online advertising, an ad can receive a click-through rate prediction of 0.1 over some population of users where its actual click rate is 0.15. In such cases, the probabilistic predictions have to be fixed before the system can be deployed. In this paper, we first introduce a new evaluation metric named field-level calibration error that measures the bias in predictions over the sensitive input field that the decision-maker concerns. We show that existing post-hoc calibration methods have limited improvements in the new field-level metric and other non-calibration metrics such as the AUC score. To this end, we propose Neural Calibration, a simple yet powerful post-hoc calibration method that learns to calibrate by making full use of the field-aware information over the validation set. We present extensive experiments on five large-scale datasets. The results showed that Neural Calibration significantly improves against uncalibrated predictions in common metrics such as the negative log-likelihood, Brier score and AUC, as well as the proposed field-level calibration error.
Anomaly detection of time series plays an important role in reliability systems engineering. However, in practical application, there is no precisely defined boundary between normal and anomalous behaviors in different application scenarios. Therefore, different anomaly detection algorithms and processes ought to be adopted for time series in different situation. Although such strategy improve the accuracy of anomaly detection, it takes a lot of time for practitioners to configure various algorithms to millions of series, which greatly increases the development and maintenance cost of anomaly detection processes. In this paper, we propose CRATOS which is a self-adapt algorithms that extract features from time series, and then cluster series with similar features into one group. For each group we utilize evolutionary algorithm to search the best anomaly detection methods and processes. Our methods can significantly reduce the cost of development and maintenance of anomaly detection. According to experiments, our clustering methods achieves the state-of-art results. The accuracy of the anomaly detection algorithms in this paper is 85.1%.
Deep neural networks have significantly contributed to the success in predictive accuracy for classification tasks. However, they tend to make over-confident predictions in real-world settings, where domain shifting and out-of-distribution (OOD) examples exist. Most research on uncertainty estimation focuses on computer vision because it provides visual validation on uncertainty quality. However, few have been presented in the natural language process domain. Unlike Bayesian methods that indirectly infer uncertainty through weight uncertainties, current evidential uncertainty-based methods explicitly model the uncertainty of class probabilities through subjective opinions. They further consider inherent uncertainty in data with different root causes, vacuity (i.e., uncertainty due to a lack of evidence) and dissonance (i.e., uncertainty due to conflicting evidence). In our paper, we firstly apply evidential uncertainty in OOD detection for text classification tasks. We propose an inexpensive framework that adopts both auxiliary outliers and pseudo off-manifold samples to train the model with prior knowledge of a certain class, which has high vacuity for OOD samples. Extensive empirical experiments demonstrate that our model based on evidential uncertainty outperforms other counterparts for detecting OOD examples. Our approach can be easily deployed to traditional recurrent neural networks and fine-tuned pre-trained transformers.
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