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Register a new userAgent-based Simulation Model and Deep Learning Techniques to Evaluate and Predict Transportation Trends around COVID-19
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Added by
Fan Zuo
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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The COVID-19 pandemic has affected travel behaviors and transportation system operations, and cities are grappling with what policies can be effective for a phased reopening shaped by social distancing. This edition of the white paper updates travel trends and highlights an agent-based simulation models results to predict the impact of proposed phased reopening strategies. It also introduces a real-time video processing method to measure social distancing through cameras on city streets.
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease with first symptoms similar to the flu. COVID-19 appeared first in China and very quickly spreads to the rest of the world, causing then the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic. In many cases, this disease causes pneumonia. Since pulmonary infections can be observed through radiography images, this paper investigates deep learning methods for automatically analyzing query chest X-ray images with the hope to bring precision tools to health professionals towards screening the COVID-19 and diagnosing confirmed patients. In this context, training datasets, deep learning architectures and analysis strategies have been experimented from publicly open sets of chest X-ray images. Tailored deep learning models are proposed to detect pneumonia infection cases, notably viral cases. It is assumed that viral pneumonia cases detected during an epidemic COVID-19 context have a high probability to presume COVID-19 infections. Moreover, easy-to-apply health indicators are proposed for estimating infection status and predicting patient status from the detected pneumonia cases. Experimental results show possibilities of training deep learning models over publicly open sets of chest X-ray images towards screening viral pneumonia. Chest X-ray test images of COVID-19 infected patients are successfully diagnosed through detection models retained for their performances. The efficiency of proposed health indicators is highlighted through simulated scenarios of patients presenting infections and health problems by combining real and synthetic health data.
Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, has raised a calamitous situation all over the world and has become one of the most acute and severe ailments in the past hundred years. The prevalence rate of COVID-19 is rapidly rising every day throughout the globe. Although no vaccines for this pandemic have been discovered yet, deep learning techniques proved themselves to be a powerful tool in the arsenal used by clinicians for the automatic diagnosis of COVID-19. This paper aims to overview the recently developed systems based on deep learning techniques using different medical imaging modalities like Computer Tomography (CT) and X-ray. This review specifically discusses the systems developed for COVID-19 diagnosis using deep learning techniques and provides insights on well-known data sets used to train these networks. It also highlights the data partitioning techniques and various performance measures developed by researchers in this field. A taxonomy is drawn to categorize the recent works for proper insight. Finally, we conclude by addressing the challenges associated with the use of deep learning methods for COVID-19 detection and probable future trends in this research area. This paper is intended to provide experts (medical or otherwise) and technicians with new insights into the ways deep learning techniques are used in this regard and how they potentially further works in combatting the outbreak of COVID-19.
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is of critical significance to provide a timely risk prediction of the COVID-19 in multi-level. To implement it and evaluate the public health policies, we develop a framework with machine learning assisted to extract epidemic dynamics from the infection data, in which contains a county-level spatiotemporal epidemiological model that combines a spatial Cellular Automaton (CA) with a temporal Susceptible-Undiagnosed-Infected-Removed (SUIR) model. Compared with the existing time risk prediction models, the proposed CA-SUIR model shows the multi-level risk of the county to the government and coronavirus transmission patterns under different policies. This new toolbox is first utilized to the projection of the multi-level COVID-19 prevalence over 412 Landkreis (counties) in Germany, including t-day-ahead risk forecast and the risk assessment to the travel restriction policy. As a practical illustration, we predict the situation at Christmas where the worst fatalities are 34.5 thousand, effective policies could contain it to below 21 thousand. Such intervenable evaluation system could help decide on economic restarting and public health policies making in pandemic.
COVID-19 clinical presentation and prognosis are highly variable, ranging from asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multi-organ involvement. We developed a hybrid machine learning/deep learning model to classify patients in two outcome categories, non-ICU and ICU (intensive care admission or death), using 558 patients admitted in a northern Italy hospital in February/May of 2020. A fully 3D patient-level CNN classifier on baseline CT images is used as feature extractor. Features extracted, alongside with laboratory and clinical data, are fed for selection in a Boruta algorithm with SHAP game theoretical values. A classifier is built on the reduced feature space using CatBoost gradient boosting algorithm and reaching a probabilistic AUC of 0.949 on holdout test set. The model aims to provide clinical decision support to medical doctors, with the probability score of belonging to an outcome class and with case-based SHAP interpretation of features importance.
We investigate, through a data-driven contact tracing model, the transmission of COVID-19 inside buses during distinct phases of the pandemic in a large Brazilian city. From this microscopic approach, we recover the networks of close contacts within consecutive time windows. A longitudinal comparison is then performed by upscaling the traced contacts with the transmission computed from a mean-field compartmental model for the entire city. Our results show that the effective reproduction numbers inside the buses, $Re^{bus}$, and in the city, $Re^{city}$, followed a compatible behavior during the first wave of the local outbreak. Moreover, by distinguishing the close contacts of healthcare workers in the buses, we discovered that their transmission, $Re^{health}$, during the same period, was systematically higher than $Re^{bus}$. This result reinforces the need for special public transportation policies for highly exposed groups of people.
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