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Register a new userIdentifying and mitigating noise sources in precision pulsar timing data sets
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Pulsar timing array projects measure the pulse arrival times of millisecond pulsars for the primary purpose of detecting nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves. The measurements include contributions from a number of astrophysical and instrumental processes, which can either be deterministic or stochastic. It is necessary to develop robust statistical and physical models for these noise processes because incorrect models diminish sensitivity and may cause a spurious gravitational wave detection. Here we characterise noise processes for the 26 pulsars in the second data release of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array using Bayesian inference. In addition to well-studied noise sources found previously in pulsar timing array data sets such as achromatic timing noise and dispersion measure variations, we identify new noise sources including time-correlated chromatic noise that we attribute to variations in pulse scattering. We also identify exponential dip events in four pulsars, which we attribute to magnetospheric effects as evidenced by pulse profile shape changes observed for three of the pulsars. This includes an event in PSR J1713$+$0747, which had previously been attributed to interstellar propagation. We present noise models to be used in searches for gravitational waves. We outline a robust methodology to evaluate the performance of noise models and identify unknown signals in the data. The detection of variations in pulse profiles highlights the need to develop efficient profile domain timing methods.
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We report on the high-precision timing of 42 radio millisecond pulsars (MSPs) observed by the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). This EPTA Data Release 1.0 extends up to mid-2014 and baselines range from 7-18 years. It forms the basis for the stochastic gravitational-wave background, anisotropic background, and continuous-wave limits recently presented by the EPTA elsewhere. The Bayesian timing analysis performed with TempoNest yields the detection of several new parameters: seven parallaxes, nine proper motions and, in the case of six binary pulsars, an apparent change of the semi-major axis. We find the NE2001 Galactic electron density model to be a better match to our parallax distances (after correction from the Lutz-Kelker bias) than the M2 and M3 models by Schnitzeler (2012). However, we measure an average uncertainty of 80% (fractional) for NE2001, three times larger than what is typically assumed in the literature. We revisit the transverse velocity distribution for a set of 19 isolated and 57 binary MSPs and find no statistical difference between these two populations. We detect Shapiro delay in the timing residuals of PSRs J1600$-$3053 and J1918$-$0642, implying pulsar and companion masses $m_p=1.22_{-0.35}^{+0.5} text{M}_{odot}$, $m_c = 0.21_{-0.04}^{+0.06} text{M}_{odot }$ and $m_p=1.25_{-0.4}^{+0.6} text{M}_{odot}$, $m_c = 0.23_{-0.05}^{+0.07} text{M}_{odot }$, respectively. Finally, we use the measurement of the orbital period derivative to set a stringent constraint on the distance to PSRs J1012$+$5307 and J1909$-$3744, and set limits on the longitude of ascending node through the search of the annual-orbital parallax for PSRs J1600$-$3053 and J1909$-$3744.
We demonstrate that the sensitivity of high-precision pulsar timing experiments will be ultimately limited by the broadband intensity modulation that is intrinsic to the pulsars stochastic radio signal. That is, as the peak flux of the pulsar approaches that of the system equivalent flux density, neither greater antenna gain nor increased instrumental bandwidth will improve timing precision. These conclusions proceed from an analysis of the covariance matrix used to characterise residual pulse profile fluctuations following the template matching procedure for arrival time estimation. We perform such an analysis on 25 hours of high-precision timing observations of the closest and brightest millisecond pulsar, PSR J0437-4715. In these data, the standard deviation of the post-fit arrival time residuals is approximately four times greater than that predicted by considering the system equivalent flux density, mean pulsar flux and the effective width of the pulsed emission. We develop a technique based on principal component analysis to mitigate the effects of shape variations on arrival time estimation and demonstrate its validity using a number of illustrative simulations. When applied to our observations, the method reduces arrival time residual noise by approximately 20%. We conclude that, owing primarily to the intrinsic variability of the radio emission from PSR J0437-4715 at 20 cm, timing precision in this observing band better than 30 - 40 ns in one hour is highly unlikely, regardless of future improvements in antenna gain or instrumental bandwidth. We describe the intrinsic variability of the pulsar signal as stochastic wideband impulse modulated self-noise (SWIMS) and argue that SWIMS will likely limit the timing precision of every millisecond pulsar currently observed by Pulsar Timing Array projects as larger and more sensitive antennae are built in the coming decades.
In this paper, we focus on testing gravity theories in the radiative regime using pulsar timing array observations. After reviewing current techniques to measure the dispersion and alternative polarization of gravitational waves, we extend the framework to the most general situations, where the combinations of a massive graviton and alternative polarization modes are considered. The atlas of the Hellings-Downs functions is completed by the new calculations for these dispersive alternative polarization modes. We find that each mode and corresponding graviton mass introduce characteristic features in the Hellings-Downs function. Thus, in principal, we can not only detect each polarization mode, measure the corresponding graviton mass, but also discriminate the different scenarios. In this way, we can test gravity theories in the radiative regime in a generalized fashion, and such method is a direct experiment, where one can address the gauge symmetry of the gravity theories in their linearised limits. Although current pulsar timing still lacks enough stable pulsars and sensitivity for such practices, we expect that future telescopes with larger collecting area could make such experiments be feasible.
We investigate the impact of noise processes on high-precision pulsar timing. Our analysis focuses on the measurability of the second spin frequency derivative $ddot{ u}$. This $ddot{ u}$ can be induced by several factors including the radial velocity of a pulsar. We use Bayesian methods to model the pulsar times-of-arrival in the presence of red timing noise and dispersion measure variations, modelling the noise processes as power laws. Using simulated times-of-arrival that both include red noise, dispersion measure variations and non-zero $ddot{ u}$ values, we find that we are able to recover the injected $ddot{ u}$, even when the noise model used to inject and recover the input parameters are different. Using simulations, we show that the measurement uncertainty on $ddot{ u}$ decreases with the timing baseline $T$ as $T^gamma$, where $gamma=-7/2+alpha/2$ for power law noise models with shallow power law indices $alpha$ ($0<alpha<4$). For steep power law indices ($alpha>8$), the measurement uncertainty reduces with $T^{-1/2}$. We applied this method to times-of-arrival from the European Pulsar Timing Array and the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array and determined $ddot{ u}$ probability density functions for 49 millisecond pulsars. We find a statistically significant $ddot{ u}$ value for PSR,B1937+21 and consider possible options for its origin. Significant (95 per cent C.L.) values for $ddot{ u}$ are also measured for PSRs,J0621+1002 and J1022+1001, thus future studies should consider including it in their ephemerides. For binary pulsars with small orbital eccentricities, like PSR,J1909$-$3744, extended ELL1 models should be used to overcome computational issues. The impacts of our results on the detection of gravitational waves are also discussed.
Pulsar timing data used to provide upper limits on a possible stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB). However, the NANOGrav Collaboration has recently reported strong evidence for a stochastic common-spectrum process, which we interpret as a SGWB in the framework of cosmic strings. The possible NANOGrav signal would correspond to a string tension $Gmu in (4 times 10^{-11}, 10^{-10}) $ at the 68% confidence level, with a different frequency dependence from supermassive black hole mergers. The SGWB produced by cosmic strings with such values of $Gmu$ would be beyond the reach of LIGO, but could be measured by other planned and proposed detectors such as SKA, LISA, TianQin, AION-1km, AEDGE, Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.
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