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Register a new userCan pandemics transform scientific novelty? Evidence from COVID-19
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Added by
Meijun Liu
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Scientific novelty is important during the pandemic due to its critical role in generating new vaccines. Parachuting collaboration and international collaboration are two crucial channels to expand teams search activities for a broader scope of resources required to address the global challenge. Our analysis of 58,728 coronavirus papers suggests that scientific novelty measured by the BioBERT model that is pre-trained on 29 million PubMed articles, and parachuting collaboration dramatically increased after the outbreak of COVID-19, while international collaboration witnessed a sudden decrease. During the COVID-19, papers with more parachuting collaboration and internationally collaborative papers are predicted to be more novel. The findings suggest the necessity of reaching out for distant resources, and the importance of maintaining a collaborative scientific community beyond established networks and nationalism during a pandemic.
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Science is built upon scholarship consensus that changes over time. This raises the question of how revolutionary theories and assumptions are evaluated and accepted into the norm of science as the setting for the next science. Using two recently proposed metrics, we identify the novel paper with high atypicality, which models how research draws upon unusual combinations of prior research in crafting their own contributions, and evaluate recognition to novel papers by citation and disruption, which captures the degree to which a research article creates a new direction by eclipsing citations to the prior work it builds upon. Only a small fraction of papers (2.3%) are highly novel, and there are fewer novel papers over time, with a nearly threefold decrease from 3.9% in 1970 to 1.4% in 2000. A highly novel paper indeed has a much higher chance (61.3%) to disrupt science than conventional papers (36.4%), but this recognition only comes from a distant future as reflected in citations, and it typically takes 10 years or longer for the disruption score of a paper to stabilize. In comparison, only nearly 20% of scholars survived in academia over this long period, measured in publications. We also provide the first computational model reformulating atypicality as the distance across the latent knowledge spaces learned by neural networks, as a proxy to the socially agreed relevance between distinct fields of scientific knowledge. The evolution of this knowledge space characterizes how yesterdays novelty forms todays scientific conventions, which condition the novelty--and surprise--of tomorrows breakthroughs. This computational model may be used to inform science policy that aims to recognize and cultivate novelty, so as to mitigate the conflict between individual career success and collective advance in science and direct human creativity to the unknown frontier of scientific knowledge.
The new coronavirus known as COVID-19 is spread world-wide since December 2019. Without any vaccination or medicine, the means of controlling it are limited to quarantine and social distancing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation of the first wave of the COVID-19 virus in China and compare it to other global locations. We provide a comprehensive picture of the spatial propagation from Hubei to other provinces in China in terms of distance, population size, and human mobility and their scaling relations. Since strict quarantine has been usually applied between cities, more insight about the temporal evolution of the disease can be obtained by analyzing the epidemic within cities, especially the time evolution of the infection, death, and recovery rates which affected by policies. We study and compare the infection rate in different cities in China and provinces in Italy and find that the disease spread is characterized by a two-stages process. At early times, at order of few days, the infection rate is close to a constant probably due to the lack of means to detect infected individuals before infection symptoms are observed. Then at later times it decays approximately exponentially due to quarantines. The time evolution of the death and recovery rates also distinguish between these two stages and reflect the health system situation which could be overloaded.
The COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19) is a growing resource of scientific papers on COVID-19 and related historical coronavirus research. CORD-19 is designed to facilitate the development of text mining and information retrieval systems over its rich collection of metadata and structured full text papers. Since its release, CORD-19 has been downloaded over 200K times and has served as the basis of many COVID-19 text mining and discovery systems. In this article, we describe the mechanics of dataset construction, highlighting challenges and key design decisions, provide an overview of how CORD-19 has been used, and describe several shared tasks built around the dataset. We hope this resource will continue to bring together the computing community, biomedical experts, and policy makers in the search for effective treatments and management policies for COVID-19.
In this article, we conduct data mining to discover the countries, universities and companies, produced or collaborated the most research on Covid-19 since the pandemic started. We present some interesting findings, but despite analysing all available records on COVID-19 from the Web of Science Core Collection, we failed to reach any significant conclusions on how the world responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we increased our analysis to include all available data records on pandemics and epidemics from 1900 to 2020. We discover some interesting results on countries, universities and companies, that produced collaborated most the most in research on pandemic and epidemics. Then we compared the results with the analysing on COVID-19 data records. This has created some interesting findings that are explained and graphically visualised in the article.
The emergence of Covid-19 requires new effective tools for epidemiological surveillance. Spatio-temporal disease mapping models, which allow dealing with highly disaggregated spatial and temporal units of analysis, are a priority in this sense. Spatio-temporal models provide a geographically detailed and temporally updated overview of the current state of the pandemics, making public health interventions to be more effective. Moreover, the use of spatio-temporal disease mapping models in the new Covid-19 epidemic context, facilitates estimating newly demanded epidemiological indicators, such as the instantaneous reproduction number (R_t), even for small areas. This, in turn, allows to adapt traditional disease mapping models to these new circumstancies and make their results more useful in this particular context. In this paper we propose a new spatio-temporal disease mapping model, particularly suited to Covid-19 surveillance. As an additional result, we derive instantaneous reproduction number estimates for small areas, enabling monitoring this parameter with a high spatial disaggregation. We illustrate the use of our proposal with the separate study of the disease pandemics in two Spanish regions. As a result, we illustrate how touristic flows could haved shaped the spatial distribution of the disease. In these real studies, we also propose new surveillance tools that can be used by regional public health services to make a more efficient use of their resources.
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