No Arabic abstract
Patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 show a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations ranging from mild febrile illness and cough up to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiple organ failure and death. Data from patients with severe clinical manifestations compared to patients with mild symptoms indicate that highly dysregulated exuberant inflammatory responses correlate with severity of disease and lethality. Significantly elevated cytokine levels, i.e. cytokine storm, seem to play a central role in severity and lethality in COVID-19. We have previously shown that excessive cytokine release induced by highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza A virus was reduced by application of proteasome inhibitors. In the present study we present experimental data of a central cellular pro-inflammatory signal pathways, NF-kappaB, in the context of published clinical data from COVID-19 patients and develop a hypothesis for a therapeutic approach aiming at the simultaneous inhibition of whole cascades of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines via blocking the nuclear translocation of NF-kappaB by proteasome inhibitors. The simultaneous inhibition of multiple cytokines/chemokines using clinically approved proteasome inhibitors is expected to have a higher therapeutic potential compared to single target approaches to prevent cascade (i.e. triggering, synergistic, and redundant) effects of multiple induced cytokines and may provide an additional therapeutic option to be explored for treatment of critical stage COVID-19 patients.
The titled subject has attracted much interest. Here we summarize the substantial results obtained by a physical model of protein evolution based on hydropathic domain dynamics. In a recent Letter eighteen biologists suggested that the titled subject should be studied in a way inclusive of broad expertise (1). There is an even broader view that has been developed over several decades by physicists (2,3). This view is based on analyzing amino acid sequences of proteins. These sequences are now available on-line at Uniprot, and represent a treasure-trove of data (4).
COVID-19 infections have well described systemic manifestations, especially respiratory problems. There are currently no specific treatments or vaccines against the current strain. With higher case numbers, a range of neurological symptoms are becoming apparent. The mechanisms responsible for these are not well defined, other than those related to hypoxia and microthrombi. We speculate that sustained systemic immune activation seen with SARS-CoV-2 may also cause secondary autoimmune activation in the CNS. Patients with chronic neurological diseases may be at higher risk because of chronic secondary respiratory disease and potentially poor nutritional status. Here, we review the impact of COVID-19 on people with chronic neurological diseases and potential mechanisms. We believe special attention to protecting people with neurodegenerative disease is warranted. We are concerned about a possible delayed pandemic in the form of an increased burden of neurodegenerative disease after acceleration of pathology by systemic COVID-19 infections.
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented around the world to curb transmission. However, the economic and social costs of some of these measures, especially lockdowns, has been high. An alternative and widely discussed public health strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic would have been to shield those most vulnerable to COVID-19, while allowing infection to spread among lower risk individuals with the aim of reaching herd immunity. Here we retrospectively explore the effectiveness of this strategy, showing that even under the unrealistic assumption of perfect shielding, hospitals would have been rapidly overwhelmed with many avoidable deaths among lower risk individuals. Crucially, even a small (20%) reduction in the effectiveness of shielding would have likely led to a large increase (>150%) in the number of deaths compared to perfect shielding. Our findings demonstrate that shielding the vulnerable while allowing infections to spread among the wider population would not have been a viable public health strategy for COVID-19, and is unlikely to be effective for future pandemics.
Machine Learning (ML) models typically require large-scale, balanced training data to be robust, generalizable, and effective in the context of healthcare. This has been a major issue for developing ML models for the coronavirus-disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic where data is highly imbalanced, particularly within electronic health records (EHR) research. Conventional approaches in ML use cross-entropy loss (CEL) that often suffers from poor margin classification. For the first time, we show that contrastive loss (CL) improves the performance of CEL especially for imbalanced EHR data and the related COVID-19 analyses. This study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. We use EHR data from five hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) to predict mortality, intubation, and intensive care unit (ICU) transfer in hospitalized COVID-19 patients over 24 and 48 hour time windows. We train two sequential architectures (RNN and RETAIN) using two loss functions (CEL and CL). Models are tested on full sample data set which contain all available data and restricted data set to emulate higher class imbalance.CL models consistently outperform CEL models with the restricted data set on these tasks with differences ranging from 0.04 to 0.15 for AUPRC and 0.05 to 0.1 for AUROC. For the restricted sample, only the CL model maintains proper clustering and is able to identify important features, such as pulse oximetry. CL outperforms CEL in instances of severe class imbalance, on three EHR outcomes with respect to three performance metrics: predictive power, clustering, and feature importance. We believe that the developed CL framework can be expanded and used for EHR ML work in general.
As the second wave in India mitigates, COVID-19 has now infected about 29 million patients countrywide, leading to more than 350 thousand people dead. As the infections surged, the strain on the medical infrastructure in the country became apparent. While the country vaccinates its population, opening up the economy may lead to an increase in infection rates. In this scenario, it is essential to effectively utilize the limited hospital resources by an informed patient triaging system based on clinical parameters. Here, we present two interpretable machine learning models predicting the clinical outcomes, severity, and mortality, of the patients based on routine non-invasive surveillance of blood parameters from one of the largest cohorts of Indian patients at the day of admission. Patient severity and mortality prediction models achieved 86.3% and 88.06% accuracy, respectively, with an AUC-ROC of 0.91 and 0.92. We have integrated both the models in a user-friendly web app calculator, https://triage-COVID-19.herokuapp.com/, to showcase the potential deployment of such efforts at scale.