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Register a new userAsymptotic Analysis for Data-Driven Inventory Policies
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Xun Zhang
Publication date
2020
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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We study periodic review stochastic inventory control in the data-driven setting, in which the retailer makes ordering decisions based only on historical demand observations without any knowledge of the probability distribution of the demand. Since an $(s, S)$-policy is optimal when the demand distribution is known, we investigate the statistical properties of the data-driven $(s, S)$-policy obtained by recursively computing the empirical cost-to-go functions. This policy is inherently challenging to analyze because the recursion induces propagation of the estimation error backwards in time. In this work, we establish the asymptotic properties of this data-driven policy by fully accounting for the error propagation. First, we rigorously show the consistency of the estimated parameters by filling in some gaps (due to unaccounted error propagation) in the existing studies. On the other hand, empirical process theory cannot be directly applied to show asymptotic normality. To explain, the empirical cost-to-go functions for the estimated parameters are not i.i.d. sums, again due to the error propagation. Our main methodological innovation comes from an asymptotic representation for multi-sample $U$-processes in terms of i.i.d. sums. This representation enables us to apply empirical process theory to derive the influence functions of the estimated parameters and establish joint asymptotic normality. Based on these results, we also propose an entirely data-driven estimator of the optimal expected cost and we derive its asymptotic distribution. We demonstrate some useful applications of our asymptotic results, including sample size determination, as well as interval estimation and hypothesis testing on vital parameters of the inventory problem. The results from our numerical simulations conform to our theoretical analysis.
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We study the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators obtained from estimating functions, that are p-dimensional martingale transforms. The problem is motivated by the analysis of evolutionary clustered data, with distributions belonging to the exponential family, and which may also vary in terms of other component series. Within a quasi-likelihood approach, we construct estimating equations, which accommodate different forms of dependency among the components of the response vector and establish multivariate extensions of results on linear and generalized linear models, with stochastic covariates. Furthermore, we characterize estimating functions which are asymptotically optimal, in that they lead to confidence regions for the regression parameters which are of minimum size, asymptotically. Results from a simulation study and an application to a real dataset are included.
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We consider the canonical periodic review lost sales inventory system with positive lead-times and stochastic i.i.d. demand under the average cost criterion. We introduce a new policy that places orders such that the expected inventory level at the time of arrival of an order is at a fixed level and call it the Projected Inventory Level (PIL) policy. We prove that this policy has a cost-rate superior to the equivalent system where excess demand is back-ordered instead of lost and is therefore asymptotically optimal as the cost of losing a sale approaches infinity under mild distributional assumptions. We further show that this policy dominates the constant order policy for any finite lead-time and is therefore asymptotically optimal as the lead-time approaches infinity for the case of exponentially distributed demand per period. Numerical results show this policy also performs superior relative to other policies.
Classification rules can be severely affected by the presence of disturbing observations in the training sample. Looking for an optimal classifier with such data may lead to unnecessarily complex rules. So, simpler effective classification rules could be achieved if we relax the goal of fitting a good rule for the whole training sample but only consider a fraction of the data. In this paper we introduce a new method based on trimming to produce classification rules with guaranteed performance on a significant fraction of the data. In particular, we provide an automatic way of determining the right trimming proportion and obtain in this setting oracle bounds for the classification error on the new data set.
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