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We consider off-policy evaluation (OPE), which evaluates the performance of a new policy from observed data collected from previous experiments, without requiring the execution of the new policy. This finds important applications in areas with high execution cost or safety concerns, such as medical diagnosis, recommendation systems and robotics. In practice, due to the limited information from off-policy data, it is highly desirable to construct rigorous confidence intervals, not just point estimation, for the policy performance. In this work, we propose a new variational framework which reduces the problem of calculating tight confidence bounds in OPE into an optimization problem on a feasible set that catches the true state-action value function with high probability. The feasible set is constructed by leveraging statistical properties of a recently proposed kernel Bellman loss (Feng et al., 2019). We design an efficient computational approach for calculating our bounds, and extend it to perform post-hoc diagnosis and correction for existing estimators. Empirical results show that our method yields tight confidence intervals in different settings.
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Many reinforcement learning applications involve the use of data that is sensitive, such as medical records of patients or financial information. However, most current reinforcement learning methods can leak information contained within the (possibly sensitive) data on which they are trained. To address this problem, we present the first differentially private approach for off-policy evaluation. We provide a theoretical analysis of the privacy-preserving properties of our algorithm and analyze its utility (speed of convergence). After describing some results of this theoretical analysis, we show empirically that our method outperforms previous methods (which are restricted to the on-policy setting).
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly dependent on the calibration of estimated behaviour policy models: how precisely the behaviour policy is estimated from data. We show how powerful parametric models such as neural networks can result in highly uncalibrated behaviour policy models on a real-world medical dataset, and illustrate how a simple, non-parametric, k-nearest neighbours model produces better calibrated behaviour policy estimates and can be used to obtain superior importance sampling-based OPE estimates.
Off-policy evaluation (OPE) holds the promise of being able to leverage large, offline datasets for both evaluating and selecting complex policies for decision making. The ability to learn offline is particularly important in many real-world domains, such as in healthcare, recommender systems, or robotics, where online data collection is an expensive and potentially dangerous process. Being able to accurately evaluate and select high-performing policies without requiring online interaction could yield significant benefits in safety, time, and cost for these applications. While many OPE methods have been proposed in recent years, comparing results between papers is difficult because currently there is a lack of a comprehensive and unified benchmark, and measuring algorithmic progress has been challenging due to the lack of difficult evaluation tasks. In order to address this gap, we present a collection of policies that in conjunction with existing offline datasets can be used for benchmarking off-policy evaluation. Our tasks include a range of challenging high-dimensional continuous control problems, with wide selections of datasets and policies for performing policy selection. The goal of our benchmark is to provide a standardized measure of progress that is motivated from a set of principles designed to challenge and test the limits of existing OPE methods. We perform an evaluation of state-of-the-art algorithms and provide open-source access to our data and code to foster future research in this area.
Importance sampling-based estimators for off-policy evaluation (OPE) are valued for their simplicity, unbiasedness, and reliance on relatively few assumptions. However, the variance of these estimators is often high, especially when trajectories are of different lengths. In this work, we introduce Omitting-States-Irrelevant-to-Return Importance Sampling (OSIRIS), an estimator which reduces variance by strategically omitting likelihood ratios associated with certain states. We formalize the conditions under which OSIRIS is unbiased and has lower variance than ordinary importance sampling, and we demonstrate these properties empirically.
In this work, we consider the problem of model selection for deep reinforcement learning (RL) in real-world environments. Typically, the performance of deep RL algorithms is evaluated via on-policy interactions with the target environment. However, comparing models in a real-world environment for the purposes of early stopping or hyperparameter tuning is costly and often practically infeasible. This leads us to examine off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) in such settings. We focus on OPE for value-based methods, which are of particular interest in deep RL, with applications like robotics, where off-policy algorithms based on Q-function estimation can often attain better sample complexity than direct policy optimization. Existing OPE metrics either rely on a model of the environment, or the use of importance sampling (IS) to correct for the data being off-policy. However, for high-dimensional observations, such as images, models of the environment can be difficult to fit and value-based methods can make IS hard to use or even ill-conditioned, especially when dealing with continuous action spaces. In this paper, we focus on the specific case of MDPs with continuous action spaces and sparse binary rewards, which is representative of many important real-world applications. We propose an alternative metric that relies on neither models nor IS, by framing OPE as a positive-unlabeled (PU) classification problem with the Q-function as the decision function. We experimentally show that this metric outperforms baselines on a number of tasks. Most importantly, it can reliably predict the relative performance of different policies in a number of generalization scenarios, including the transfer to the real-world of policies trained in simulation for an image-based robotic manipulation task.
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